Presidential Campaigners Near a Deadline for Dollars

Lamar Alexander spends his days as a telemarketer, begging for dollars to buttress his flagging presidential campaign.

Texas Gov. George W. Bush eats breakfast in one place, lunch in another and hits the road again for dinner, adding more cash at each stop to his already bulging coffers.

As for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), he has turned to the U.S. mail, pleading by letter for emergency financial infusions to his White House bid.

The presidential primaries are seven months away, but these days the candidates are engaging in a flurry of fund-raising that is increasing in intensity as the month comes to a close. That’s because each campaign must detail to federal election officials its financial status as of next Wednesday, and each wants to report the best possible bottom line. The figures from both the high rollers and the hangers-on will be sliced and diced by analysts, providing early clues to the political viability of their presidential hopes.

“This next filing takes on the equivalence of a financial straw poll,” said Marshall Wittman, an analyst at the conservative Heritage Foundation, a Washington think tank. “That’s how important it is. Campaigns will live or die on their numbers.”

The dynamics are not all that different from Wall Street, where investors pour money into proven winners, boosting those stocks even more. A tinge of vulnerability, however, and skittish market players take their money and run.

At the top of the Republican heap, of course, is Bush, who is expected to report raising nearly as much as all his GOP rivals combined. That, in turn, has left many of those competitors in despair as they encounter giver after potential giver who has already committed to Bush.

Alexander’s fund-raising has been an early casualty of the Bush blitzkrieg. To stretch his meager bank account--he had reported less than $100,000 in cash at the end of March--he recently fired a chunk of his entourage. In a bid to revive his prospects, the former Tennessee governor canceled most public appearances this week to return to Nashville and phone potential donors.

Events and Entreaties for Every Last Dime

Former American Red Cross President Elizabeth Hanford Dole is more typical of the other GOP candidates, crisscrossing the country with hat in hand, scrounging for every last dime. Her stops include New York, Seattle and Philadelphia.

McCain has headed to New Hampshire for a mixture of meet-and-greets and fund-raising receptions. But he also resorted to a desperate-sounding letter urging backers to send along an “emergency contribution” to keep his campaign alive.

“The upcoming filing period on June 30 is the most important of the campaign since it will help us define our campaign’s financial and political strength,” McCain’s letter said. “Our continued fund-raising success will send a strong message that we can win the nomination.”

Even Bush is busy. He spent one night this week at the Washington Hilton Hotel surrounded by 2,000 folks who gave $1,000. The fund-raising dinner, which dispensed with an actual dinner to help keep overhead down, netted almost $2 million for the Bush Presidential Exploratory Committee.

“I know you wrote ‘exploratory’ on the check,” Bush told the givers. “I’m through exploring.”

Next week, Bush hits California for a string of fund-raising meals, food included, that is expected to haul in millions more. “San Diego, breakfast; Orange County, lunch; Los Angeles, dinner,” said Brad Freeman, Bush’s California chairman, rattling off the candidate’s schedule. “Then it’s Sacramento, lunch; San Francisco, dinner; Silicon Valley, breakfast; and Fresno, lunch.”

When his final figures are tallied, Bush’s contributions for the year are expected to be near $20 million.

Among the Democrats, Vice President Al Gore is also nearing the $20-million mark, setting up a fund-raising duel with Bush.

But Gore must first address his sole opponent in the Democratic race, Bill Bradley, who is expected to report more than $8 million in contributions through June 30. Although Gore’s total will still dwarf Bradley’s, the former New Jersey senator has gained credibility because his fund-raising exceeded expectations--an example of the importance of perceptions in the quest for money.

“The worst thing for any candidate is to get branded a loser,” said Wittman. “Raising money is a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you don’t raise it, it sends a message that you’re not going anywhere. That makes it even harder to raise.”

Among Republicans, it appears that, while Bush continues to surge, the rest of the GOP field will converge.

Dole and McCain both are expected to report between $3 million and $4 million raised so far this year. Alexander also is expected to land in the $3-million range, far short of the $55,000-a-day target he set earlier in the year, which would have totaled about $10 million by Wednesday. Former Vice President Dan Quayle is likely to report a similar haul, which also will fall short of his campaign’s initial expectations.

“George W. Bush has forced all the campaigns to reassess their budget projections,” said Quayle aide Jonathan Baron.

It is the candidate whose fund-raising totals do not matter a whit, multimillionaire Steve Forbes, who has Bush’s advisors most concerned.

“A fund-raising swing for Steve Forbes is sitting down at the desk and opening the drawer where the checkbook is held,” remarked Ari Fleischer, an aide to Dole.

The publishing magnate wrote $30 million worth of checks on his failed presidential bid in 1996. This time he is supplementing his family fortune with other people’s money. He staged a fund-raiser last week at New York’s Waldorf-Astoria that took in about $1 million.

Gary Bauer, invisible in the polls, is one of the candidates who has benefited from surpassing expectations. Bauer, a social-conservative activist who has never run for any office before--much less the presidency--surged past the million-dollar barrier three months ago. More so than other candidates, he relies on direct-mail solicitations to target voters. And he is expected to continue to benefit from their strong commitment to the causes he stresses, such as opposition to abortion rights.

Contributions Spent to Get Contributions

His technique illustrates how political fund-raising can resemble a shell game. To send out millions of campaign mailers seeking funds, candidates need money. So they must spend the campaign contributions that are coming in to generate even more. If at the end of the year they have raised, say, $8 million, it could cost $8 million, or more.

A waste? Depends.

All those contributions would entitle the candidate to about $6 million in government matching funds to keep the campaign up and running as the primaries finally approach. And the campaign still has its list of contributors, many of whom are donors who have not yet given the $1,000 limit and thus can be tapped again.