State GOP Likes Its Chances

Powered by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s popularity, Republicans are launching their most aggressive assault in a decade on majority Democrats in the Legislature.

After losing seats between 1994 and 2002, Republicans hope to replace at least three Democrats when voters go to the polls Nov. 2.

At stake is the balance of power and philosophy in the Legislature. Though no one believes the GOP can actually capture control of either the Assembly or Senate, even a few more Republican votes could help propel Schwarzenegger’s legislative agenda.

Democrats have more cash to throw into campaigns this fall -- $11 million versus $5 million -- but Republicans outspent them by $1.3 million between February and June, mostly on voter registration and turnout. Spending since then probably has gained steam, but those figures are yet to be reported.

“We’re raising [money] and burning through it,” said California Republican Party spokeswoman Karen Hanretty, “but all with a very specific purpose in mind.”

Democrats now enjoy majorities in both houses -- 48 to 32 in the Assembly and 25 to 14 in the Senate. The last decade has been a particular struggle for Republicans: They steadily lost seats after 1994 until they gained three in tight 2002 races.

Republican strategists say Schwarzenegger could deliver even more gains if he were to tape television ads, attend rallies and record phone messages on behalf of candidates. So far, the governor has written a total of 42 endorsement letters covering some but not all Republican candidates. He has appeared at six fundraisers for candidates and one to help Kern County Republicans draw contributions for several legislative races.

“I watched an election in March where every single proposition or candidate he endorsed won, and one happened to be a $15-billion bond,” said Republican political consultant Matt Rexroad. “The guy is truly incredible politically.”

Of this fall’s 100 legislative races, Republican leaders have targeted 16, most in the Assembly. A majority of voters in many of those districts voted in October 2003 to oust Democratic Gov. Gray Davis and replace him with a Republican, generally either Schwarzenegger or Sen. Tom McClintock (R-Thousand Oaks).

“Will Arnold ... be willing to go out and try to convince those soft Democrats and independents who voted yes on the recall and voted for a Republican to also vote for a Republican for the Legislature?” said Allan Hoffenblum, co-author of The Target Book, which tracks legislative races. “No one knows. I think the best thing for Republicans ... is for the Democrats to know as little as possible what he’s going to do.”

Democrats don’t question Schwarzenegger’s popularity. In at least one case, they’re trying to tap it: Assemblywoman Barbara Matthews, a moderate from Tracy fighting for reelection in a tight 17th District race, is running television ads showing herself with Schwarzenegger and the message: “Behind Every Successful Man is a Good Woman.” Her Republican opponent, Nellie McGarry, who is endorsed by Schwarzenegger, has called on her to pull the ads.

But Democrats warn that by inserting himself into the legislative races, Schwarzenegger risks eroding his image as an outsider above the fray of politics.

“The more he is a Republican in Democratic districts and in some cases starting to deal with candidates of questionable qualifications, I question how important his endorsement is,” said Sacramento political strategist Gale Kaufman, who is overseeing Assembly races for the Democrats.

Schwarzenegger’s ability to help Republican candidates will also diminish, Kaufman predicted, as he annoys Democrats by thwarting key legislation. The governor vetoed a minimum wage bill Saturday, and he was expected to soon veto measures that would allow prescription drug imports from Canada and prohibit the export of state and local government jobs overseas.

Kaufman discounted the recall election that ousted Davis, calling it an “anomaly” aimed at a single man and not Democrats in general. The presidential election should boost voter turnout, she said, and higher turnout always helps Democrats.

Still, Democrats are taking very little for granted and doing grass-roots campaigning in more districts than usual, Kaufman said.

With voters able to cast absentee ballots as early as the first week of October, big bucks are starting to fly in the handful of truly competitive races where voter registration is evenly split between the two parties.

The most expensive race so far is in the 5th Senate District, where Stockton Mayor Gary Podesto, a Republican, is challenging Democrat Mike Machado, a 10-year legislative veteran. Machado, a farmer, last week failed to get the endorsement of the influential California Farm Bureau Federation, which said he “forgot his farming roots” by voting to increase taxes and to mandate employee healthcare coverage by businesses.

Machado also got bad news when the state’s political watchdog agency last month fined him $61,000 for violating campaign reporting laws. Last spring, Schwarzenegger appeared at a fundraiser on behalf of Podesto, who has raised $2.2 million to Machado’s $1.6 million. Each side could ultimately spend more than $3 million -- unusually high figures for a legislative race.

The nastiest race so far is in the 30th Assembly District, which includes Bakersfield. Republican construction company owner Dean Gardner nearly won the seat in 2002, losing by fewer than 300 votes to Democrat Nicole Parra.

The Republican Party did little to help Gardner then. But given his surprisingly strong showing, they are backing him now, despite documents released by Democratic researchers that show Gardner filed for bankruptcy four times in the last 22 years and had 36 liens filed against him for failing to pay taxes and various bills.

Parra also accused Gardner of changing his name once and using different variations of it on legal documents in order to confuse creditors. (Gardner responded that the name change occurred 25 years ago, and that the document variations confused no one.)

Democrats detailed Gardner’s legal history on a website, www.WhoIsDeanGardner.com. Earlier this month, they parked a truck with rotating panels that flashed various names Gardner has used outside a Bakersfield fundraiser featuring Schwarzenegger. That fundraiser netted $600,000 that Kern County Republicans can distribute to local candidates, including Gardner. Parra has raised nearly $130,000 since July, compared with $58,000 for Gardner.

Republicans also see opportunity in seven open seats -- all but one recently vacated by Democrats -- in districts where Republican registration nears 40%:

* In the Central Valley’s 31st Assembly District, almond farmer Paul Betancourt is vying against Democrat Juan Arambula, a Fresno County supervisor and attorney.

* The race for the 35th Assembly District in Santa Barbara County pits Republican educational consultant Robert Pohl against state Coastal Commissioner Pedro Nava.

* The 53rd Assembly District, which includes Torrance, features Redondo Beach Mayor Greg Hill, a Republican, and Democrat Mike Gordon, the former mayor of El Segundo and a partner in a marketing and fundraising firm.

* In the neighboring 54th Assembly District that includes Long Beach, two faces familiar to Sacramento are competing: termed-out state Sen. Betty Karnette, a Democrat, and Republican Steve Kuykendall, who represented the area in both the Assembly and Congress. Kaufman predicted that both sides would throw lots of money into the race to woo “decline to state” voters.

* Another former Assembly member, Republican Trish Hunter, faces off against local community activist and Democrat Lori Saldana in the 76th Assembly District that includes San Diego. Democrats are confident they can win by reminding voters, who suffered the worst price hikes of the electricity crisis four years ago, that Hunter worked as a lobbyist for the collapsed energy company Enron.

* The Democratic State Central Committee sank $1.5 million this month into the state Senate campaign of Peg Pinard, a San Luis Obispo County supervisor pitted against Republican Abel Maldonado, a Santa Maria farmer who is termed out of the Assembly this year. Since January 2003, Maldonado has raised $1.3 million and Pinard $1.9 million in the 15th Senate District race.

* In the Democratic-leaning Palo Alto area of the 21st Assembly District, Republican Steve Poizner is forcing Democrats to invest where they normally wouldn’t need to by sinking at least $2.8 million of his own money into a campaign that includes network television advertising. He is opposed by Democrat Ira Ruskin, a communications consultant and former mayor of Redwood City.

A co-founder of a cellphone technology company that sold for $1 billion, Poizner also is walking miles across the district to knock on the doors of voters who don’t necessarily hew to the party line. Democrats make up 44.6% of registered voters in the district, compared with 31.4% Republican, but Poizner’s moderate message resonates, said Rexroad, his campaign manager.

The state Democratic Party has so far invested more than $168,000 in Ruskin’s campaign.

Republicans are fighting hard to hang on to three other seats this fall:

* Bonnie Garcia, who represents the Imperial Valley in the 80th Assembly District, has been running radio ads and campaigning from dawn to midnight.

She has raised more than $200,000 since July, more than twice as much as her opponent, former Morongo Band of Mission Indians tribal Chairwoman Mary Ann Andreas. Garcia won her seat in 2002 despite registration that favors Democrats.

* Like Garcia, Republican Shirley Horton faces a constituency that leans Democratic in the 78th Assembly District, where she faces Chula Vista City Council member Patty Davis, a Democrat. She has raised twice as much money since July as Davis.

* In the 15th Assembly District east of San Francisco, registration numbers lean in favor of Republican Guy Houston, who seeks reelection. Elaine D. Shaw, the business attorney opposing him, has not agreed to limit her campaign fundraising to $744,000, unlike many other Democratic candidates.

“Houston has a lot of money,” said state party strategist Kaufman. “We’re watching closely, and could get more involved.”