The afterlife of Antonio Villaraigosa

The gubernatorial candidacy of Antonio Villaraigosa, which had been the object of rampant speculation and punditry for more than a decade, was declared dead on Monday afternoon after a prolonged illness.

The candidacy, already on life-support for a variety of personal and public-policy difficulties, was ultimately done in by an enormous budget deficit, a skyrocketing unemployment rate and the prospect of politically unpalatable layoffs and reductions in city services over the next several months. The Los Angeles mayor’s political caregivers apparently concluded that the unpopularity of the steps needed to balance the city budget would ultimately have proved fatal. Therefore, the cause of death is officially listed as political euthanasia.

The Villaraigosa candidacy is survived by the likely campaigns of California Atty. Gen. Jerry Brown and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, as well as a potential Villaraigosa run for the U.S. Senate in 2012. Mourners are encouraged to donate to one of the three causes listed above, or to the city of Los Angeles general budget fund.

There’s no stopping for mourning in politics, so by the time Villaraigosa went on CNN on Monday and closed the door on next year’s campaign, political activists, donors and journalists had already begun debating his motives and his political future. The early consensus: By bowing to the inevitable in the short run, he may actually be helping his long-term prospects for higher office.

Villaraigosa attempted to portray his choice to stay in City Hall as one of economic responsibility to his constituents and personal obligation to his family. “I can’t leave this city in the middle of a crisis,” the mayor said. “I feel compelled to complete what I started out to do.”

But it was also about facing political reality. Villaraigosa’s advisors know that his 55% approval rating in The Times Poll this week is a result of an uncompetitive reelection campaign. His unimpressive margin of victory in that race, coupled with the defeat of a close ally this month in the election for city attorney, made it clear how fragile those numbers really were.

A savvy operator like the mayor looked at the poll numbers and realized that his precarious public support would not survive the thrashing he would take from the hard cuts he’d have to set into place given the city’s estimated $530-million deficit. It wouldn’t help that he also would be traveling the state full-time while the city suffered under the weight of a crushing economic recession.

Give the mayor credit: It’s a rare politician who can resist the temptation to run for higher office whenever the opportunity presents itself. But Villaraigosa probably realized that time is on his side. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who turned 76 years old Monday is an unlikely candidate for reelection in 2012. By then, the state and city will have begun the long trek back to economic health, and Villaraigosa will be on the tail end of his second term rather than at the very beginning.

His daughter, whose teenage years he cited as another reason for skipping the governor’s race, will be in college (and as excited about the prospect of spending extended time with her father as most undergraduates).

A termed-out mayor with an empty nest and an economic recovery under his belt looks like a much more attractive candidate for statewide office.

In the meantime, the other Democratic candidates won’t waste any time picking over the bones of Villaraigosa’s political base. Brown has a long history with union members and Latinos, while Newsom may be better positioned to attract young voters than a septuagenarian opponent. Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Garden Grove), who has raised a flotilla of gubernatorial trial balloons in the past, may see an opening in a field that is now made up entirely of white males from the Bay Area.

Republicans, for their part, barely raised an eyebrow at Villaraigosa’s announcement, which suggests that he had ceased to be a factor in the campaign long before this week. And whether he would have been able to govern the state successfully will be an unanswerable question until he has helped Los Angeles weather its own fiscal storms.

There will be almost a full year for intraparty feuding, brawling and positioning before the Democrats select their nominee next June. But one thing is certain. They won’t have Antonio Villaraigosa to kick around anymore. At least not for another two years.