‘Shutter Island’ is expected to have a strong opening

Paramount Pictures looks to have something on its hands this weekend that has become a rare commodity in Hollywood: a hit R-rated drama.

The release of the Martin Scorsese-directed thriller “Shutter Island,” which stars Leonardo DiCaprio, was delayed from October to Friday because of financial concerns at Paramount. The postponement, which came after some marketing materials had already released, doesn’t seem to have hurt the movie’s chances, however.

Pre-release surveys of potential moviegoers show “Shutter Island” generating healthy interest among all audience segments, according to people who have seen the data. However, adults 30 and older are among the most excited, an unusual occurrence given that they are the least frequent moviegoers and rarely rush out to a film on its first weekend.

Movie theaters have been littered with R-rated dramas that failed to connect with audiences in the last year, including “The International,” “The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3” and “The Informant!” Even last weekend’s big-budget thriller, “The Wolfman,” opened to a modest $31.5 million.

“Shutter Island,” however, is firing on all cylinders and should sell $35 million to $40 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada, according to people who have seen its pre-release tracking. That’s a very healthy start given that the picture cost just under $80 million to produce. If audiences react as well as most critics have, it should continue to play well in the coming weeks.

The biggest opening for a movie directed by Scorsese was $26.9 million for “The Departed” in 2006. DiCaprio’s high-water mark is $30 million for “Catch Me if You Can” in 2002.

Paramount is benefiting from a lack of competition this weekend, with no other movies opening nationwide. Lionsgate moved the John Travolta action film “From Paris With Love” up two weeks to Feb. 5 after Paramount in August chose this Friday for “Shutter Island.”

Paramount is also opening its thriller this weekend in seven foreign countries, notably Australia. It will then roll out to other major international markets by the end of March.

Warner Bros.’ romantic comedy “Valentine’s Day” will almost certainly be No. 2 at the box office this weekend after its huge $56.3-million opening, even though its ticket sales will probably fall off more than 50% given the huge crowds it drew on its titular holiday Sunday.

Universal Pictures is hoping that “Wolfman” doesn’t decline as much after its less-than-impressive start. But with “Shutter Island” attracting a similar adult audience and word-of-mouth likely to be weak after opening weekend audiences gave it an average grade of C+, the odds are that “Wolfman” will drop more than 50%.

Fox’s family film “Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief” has the best odds to decline modestly, because its audience is different from that of “Shutter Island” and opening weekend crowds gave it an average grade of B+.

Also this weekend, Summit Entertainment opens the Roman Polanski-directed drama “The Ghost Writer” at two theaters in Los Angeles and two in New York City.

ben.fritz@latimes.com