Fox is happy if ‘Chipmunks’ finishes second to a ‘Legend’

Will Smith has dispatched drug lords, aliens and robots. So a few chipmunks should pose no problem.

But 20th Century Fox’s decision to open its family comedy “Alvin and the Chipmunks” today against Smith’s sci-fi thriller “I Am Legend” shows there is no shame -- and potentially plenty of money -- in finishing a distant second at the box office.

Warner Bros.’ “Legend” is expected to become Smith’s seventh consecutive film to open No. 1 at the box office, with this weekend’s ticket sales in the $50-million neighborhood. Fox hopes its counterprogramming move pays off with a solid No. 2 showing that gives its combination animated-and-live-action picture a market foothold in time for school holidays.

Fox has showed a knack for counterprogramming, as when “The Devil Wears Prada” held its own against “Superman Returns” in summer 2006, although its misfires include the 2005 Martin Lawrence basketball comedy “Rebound,” which hardly upstaged “War of the Worlds.”

“Successful counterprogramming has to offer a clear alternative, and we’ve got that: a pure, entertaining comedy for the whole family,” said Pamela Levine, Fox’s co-president of domestic theatrical marketing.

Although it won’t win awards, “Alvin” is emblematic of a relatively inexpensive family movie -- think “Garfield: The Movie” and “Cheaper by the Dozen,” both also from Fox -- that can clean up at the box office and on DVD.

Fox set up a website, www.munkyourself.com, that enables visitors to make a recording, hear it converted into the chipmunks’ distinctively squeaky tones and then e-mail it to friends. Half a million users have tried it, the studio says.

Producer Ross Bagdasarian, whose father created Alvin and the Chipmunks as a novelty music act in 1958, believes the PG-rated movie will appeal not only to children under 10 but also to baby boomers.

“We’ve got three generations of fans,” he said.

Older moviegoers remember the act’s chart-topping songs such as “Witch Doctor” and its first incarnation as a cartoon show in the early 1960s. Others know Alvin, Simon and Theodore from a longer-running animated series in the 1980s.

The $70-million production, rated PG for its “mild rude humor,” opens at 3,476 theaters in the U.S. and Canada and could get an initial bump from parents looking for lighter alternatives to “I Am Legend” as well as the high-brow Oscar bait that always comes with the holiday season.

Smith’s movie, about a New York scientist who survives a mysterious plague only to battle bloodthirsty mutants, is rated PG-13 for “intense sequences of sci-fi action and violence.” It opens at 3,606 theaters.

The film’s likable star and its premise -- best remembered from “The Omega Man,” a 1971 adaptation of Richard Matheson’s 1954 novel “I Am Legend” -- are the chief selling points, said Dawn Taubin, Warner Bros.’ president of domestic marketing.

“We latched on to the phrase, ‘The last man on Earth is not alone,’ and that was a concept that resonated with people,” she said. “It offered a little mystery, almost a tease. And if there is going to be a last man on Earth, you’re glad it’s Will Smith.”

No one doubts the movie, which cost more than $150 million to make, will open No. 1. The only question is how big it will be.

Industry analysts and executives at rival studios say the broad awareness of the film and keen interest indicated in moviegoer surveys point to an opening weekend as high as $65 million, while “Alvin” could end up at $15 million to $20 million.

Yari Film Group’s family comedy “The Perfect Holiday,” with a cast including Queen Latifah and Morris Chestnut, opened Wednesday, although another holiday-themed picture aimed at African Americans, “This Christmas,” is already in the marketplace.

“The Kite Runner,” adapted from Khaled Hosseini’s acclaimed novel set in Afghanistan, opens today in limited release for Paramount Vantage.

Warner executives are striving to temper expectations, which studios typically do to ward off the possibility of a high-profile disappointment. Dan Fellman, the studio’s president of domestic distribution, said Thursday that he’d be “very happy” if “I Am Legend” hit $40 million.

Smith’s best opening came in 2004 with the futuristic thriller “I, Robot,” at $52 million -- but that was in the heart of summer, with children out of school, Fellman noted. All four of Smith’s pictures to open higher than $50 million were July releases.

Although Smith has been promoting the movie with appearances on “60 Minutes” and at Grauman’s Chinese Theatre -- where he sunk his hands and feet into cement and flashed a smile for the cameras -- he hasn’t had the benefit of appearing on the big late-night talk shows because of the writers strike.

Fellman said he was watching the weather reports with trepidation, as storms threatened to pound East Coast cities.

“Rain is good, cold is fine and heat is even better because it drives people into air-conditioned theaters -- but snow and ice are ugly,” he said.

In December 2003, blizzards hurt the Tom Cruise epic “The Last Samurai” on its opening weekend, Fellman said, although the movie’s mediocre reviews didn’t help either.

The counterprogramming strategy that Fox is using is often tried but, of course, not always true. The movies must satisfy their target audience or they are destined to fail no matter the release strategy.

R-rated comedies like “American Pie” and “Wedding Crashers” became fresh summer hits that stood out against the usual parade of tired, effects-laden superhero spectacles.

In 2006, “Prada” ranked a strong No. 2 in its first weekend, and the sassy fashion world satire rode potent word of mouth to an eventual worldwide haul of $326 million.

But the blockbuster roadkill of recent years includes such female-oriented romantic comedies or dramas as “The Perfect Man,” with Hilary Duff and Heather Locklear; “Lucky You,” with Drew Barrymore and Eric Bana; and “Georgia Rule,” starring Lindsay Lohan and Jane Fonda.

“There’s nothing the matter with being in a very competitive market and not opening No. 1,” said producer Wendy Finerman, who hit the counterprogramming jackpot with “Prada” and hopes for another sleeper hit with the romantic comedy “P.S. I Love You,” coming Dec. 21.

“There’s a big enough pie to be shared by all, as long as the audience finds your film appetizing,” she said.

Early this summer, Weinstein Co. moved the Stephen King adaptation “1408,” starring John Cusack, up from its scheduled July release to June 22, going head-to-head against the big-budget family comedy “Evan Almighty,” one of the costliest bombs of the year.

“Everybody had stayed away from ‘Evan,’ so we became the adult-oriented alternative,” said producer Lorenzo di Bonaventura, whose $26-million-budget movie has brought in $117 million in worldwide ticket sales. “It was the perfect counterprogramming.”

Just as “Prada” crossed over and eventually attracted plenty of male moviegoers, Fox believes “Alvin” can break out beyond the traditional family audience of parents and younger children by drawing teenagers and unaccompanied adults.

It remains to be seen whether “Alvin” will get the last laugh. As of Thursday, the review compendium website Rottentomatoes .com listed 28% of notices as positive, and MetaCritic.com said 47% of critics were bullish on the little critters.

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josh.friedman@latimes.com

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In the ring: contenders vs. champs

A smaller movie opening on the same weekend against a favored heavyweight can sometimes pay off at the box office . . .

The sex comedy vs. the family film

Release date: 7/15/05

Contender: “Wedding Crashers,” raunchy comedy starring Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn.

Champ: “Charlie and the Chocolate Factory,” with Johnny Depp as Willy Wonka.

Outcome: Both pictures clicked with audiences. Kid-friendly “Charlie” opened to $56 million, while “Wedding Crashers” opened to $34 million and followed in the “American Pie” tradition of R-rated summer comedy hits.

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The chick flick vs. the superhero

Release date: 6/30/06

Contender: “The Devil Wears Prada,” couture comedy starring Meryl Streep and Anne Hathaway.

Champ: “Superman Returns,” director Bryan Singer’s superhero reboot.

Outcome: “Superman” opened to $52 million, yet because of a huge budget and expectations it was deemed a dud. But females flocked to “Prada,” which opened to $28 million and continued in theaters all summer.

. . . but sometimes the counterprogramming strategy misfires.

The ladykiller vs. Pixarmania

Release date: 11/5/04

Contender: “Alfie,” romantic comedy-drama remake starring a rakish Jude Law.

Champ: “The Incredibles,” computer animated comedy from the Pixar creative team.

Outcome: The ‘toon lived up to its title by opening to $71 million, but “Alfie” wooed only $6 million of first-weekend sales.

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Cute couple vs. mega-franchise sequel

Release date: 5/4/07

Contender: “Lucky You,” poker-themed romantic drama starring Eric Bana and Drew Barrymore.

Champ: “Spider-Man 3,” the first of this summer’s highly anticipated sequels.

Outcome: Peter Parker’s alter ego snared a record $151-million opening, while “Lucky You,” drew $3 million and quickly folded.