Yet a more material question looms over the Golden Globes and the Academy Awards: Can awards attention turn serious dramas into money-makers? When the Globe nominations were announced on Dec. 11, "Frost/Nixon" director Ron Howard said awards attention "was cool before. Now it's essential."
The last several years have grown increasingly tough for highbrow movies, even those with all-star casts. Audiences have steered clear of numerous quality dramas, and studio executives all the more frequently are putting their most ambitious screenplays on the back burner, in favor of mass-appeal popcorn fare.
For those companies still making distinctive movies, awards attention has become more important than ever before, as it can tip a film's profit-and-loss statement from red to black. Not surprisingly, a number of distributors are waiting until the day after the Oscar nominations are announced to expand their movies into wide national release.
Paramount Vantage plans to broaden the release of “Revolutionary Road,” currently showing in 38 locations, to some 600 screens on Jan. 23. Now playing in 205 locations, "Frost/Nixon" will add about 1,000 more theaters on that same date, Universal says.
"It's slower than any release of a Universal film that I can ever remember," Adam Fogelson, Universal's marketing and distribution chief, says of its handling of "Frost/Nixon," which opened Dec. 5. Fogelson said the studio's release plan was always focused around the Oscars, for which "Frost/Nixon" is seen as a nomination lock for best picture and best actor for Langella.
"With all due respect to all of the other awards and year-end tributes, at the end of the season of accolades, the Academy Award nominations solidify which films need to be seen," Fogelson says.
Fox Searchlight will exponentially increase its release plans for “The Wrestler” (from about 48 locations this coming weekend to about 450 on Jan. 23) in expectation of a best actor nomination for star Mickey Rourke. The studio also will more than double the distribution scheme for best picture favorite “ Slumdog Millionaire” from its current run in 612 theaters to about 1,400 locations that weekend.
Focus Features similarly will expand "Milk," now playing in about 300 locations, a week after the nominations are announced. The studio's James Schamus says in addition to telling moviegoers that "Milk" is a quality film, awards attention can remind audiences that it's "celebratory -- the awards would really put the seal of approval on the fact that it's a big entertainment."
Even Warner Bros., whose “ The Dark Knight” is the second-highest-grossing movie of all time and is already out on DVD, will return its blockbuster to theaters and Imax screens after the Oscar nominations, among which the Batman sequel likely will collect a supporting actor nomination for the late Heath Ledger and is a contender for best picture.
In addition to "I've Loved You So Long," Sony Classics is distributing a small handful of movies whose ultimate prospects will hinge on success at the Globes and the Oscars.
The specialized film division's award hopefuls include "Rachel Getting Married" (an Oscar contender for Globe nominee Anne Hathaway as best actress), "Frozen River" (Melissa Leo for best actress), "Waltz With Bashir" (as foreign-language and animated film) and "The Class" (foreign language).
Of those films, only "Rachel Getting Married" is an absolute success so far, having grossed $10.3 million since premiering Oct. 3. Sony Classics will add about 700 screens on Jan. 23. "If it wins a Golden Globe, we will expand even wider," says Sony Classics' co-head, Michael Barker. "That gives it more of a profile to those people who haven't seen it."
While popular movies such as “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (which has grossed $79.3 million through last weekend) stand to benefit marginally from awards attention, the approbation of Golden Globe and Oscar voters becomes far more significant with gloomier, riskier stories. And that makes the stakes much higher for the Oscar contender "Revolutionary Road," which needs all the help it can get.
Fox Searchlight's African despot drama "The Last King of Scotland" was essentially treading water in theaters before star Forest Whitaker started picking up awards attention, grossing less than $17,000 one weekend. But the 2006 movie ended up grossing more than $17 million. "The vast majority of that was post-nominations," says Fox Searchlight distribution head Steve Gilula.
"Once upon a time, a couple of bullets would have done it," Universal's Fogelson says of how much awards momentum upscale dramas need. "But now you need a loaded gun and a spare clip to get the more serious adult dramas going."