Cardinals Now Must Ponder the Unspoken

A weak Pope John Paul II on Tuesday installed 30 new cardinals, setting the tone and agenda of the Roman Catholic elite that will eventually select his successor.

In a poignant, regal ceremony, during which the pope appeared to wipe away a tear, men from 22 countries one by one accepted the scarlet hat of their new status, then kissed the pontiff’s ring amid intense speculation over the 83-year-old John Paul’s health and his ability to continue in power.

The gathering, which took place in St. Peter’s Square, is known as a consistory and is normally held every three years. The pope moved this meeting up by several months, a signal to many that he may feel time is running out.

With that move comes an inevitable and very subtle process of reconnaissance, by cardinals assessing one another and by Vatican watchers handicapping the potential candidates. Two things are true in the papal race: It is next to impossible to predict with certainty who will emerge as the next pope, and the best candidate is he who does not appear to be one.

Because this may well be John Paul’s last consistory, the next pope is almost certainly among the men who gathered here Tuesday. With the new additions, the College of Cardinals has swelled to record size: 194 active members, of whom 135 are younger than 80 and therefore eligible to take part in a secret meeting to choose a new pope, approximately 15 to 20 days after John Paul dies. For more than 600 years, the cardinals have always chosen one of their own to head the church.

It is considered unseemly, and is in fact prohibited, for the cardinals to speak about succession while the current pope lives. Ask, and they say they await the Holy Spirit to guide their hand and thoughts. Still, in a series of interviews over the last few days, it was clear that the future was very much on the minds of the church leaders.

The most important part of the cardinals’ job “is electing a new pope,” Keith O’Brien, 65, of Scotland told reporters on the eve of his promotion to cardinal. “We don’t know whether that will be in one month or in five years.”

Because so many cardinals have been appointed relatively recently and because their group is now so large, the consistory has served as an important opportunity for many of them to begin sizing up one another, weighing whether each might be good pope material.

“We are getting to know each other more and more,” Antonio Jose Gonzalez Zumarraga of Ecuador, a cardinal since early 2001, said in an interview. He added that he thought John Paul was preparing for a smooth transition.

“We are seeing the Holy Father falling more and more ill,” Gonzalez Zumarraga said. “There is an awareness that change could be imminent. Among both the new and the previous cardinals, we are increasingly willing to make ourselves ready and obedient to the Holy Spirit.”

Cardinal Roger Mahony, the archbishop of Los Angeles, said talk of papal succession was simply not part of his colleagues’ discussions except “maybe some cardinal or another, over a digestivo some night.”

In Tuesday’s ceremony, the pope smiled frequently and seemed pleased with his selections.

Each new cardinal knelt before him and received a three-horned hat known as a biretta, borne on a sterling silver tray. John Paul was unable to place the hats on the cardinals’ heads, handing them instead to each man.

He also was unable to read aloud his homily, or the names of the new “princes of the church,” as the cardinals are known.

“Enriched by its new members, the College of Cardinals reflects ever more the diversity of races and cultures that characterize the Christian people,” said the remarks prepared for the pope but read by an aide.

John Paul reminded the group that the scarlet color of their hats and new robes signifies blood, the willingness of the cardinals to make the ultimate sacrifice.

He also exhorted them to resist “every temptation of career and personal benefit.”

A 31st cardinal was inducted in secret, apparently because of religious persecution in his home country. His name has not been revealed.

As it looks to its future, the church will have to confront its many divisions, its quickly shifting demographics, the challenges from other religions and the corrosive inequities of the new world economic order. Consequently, there has been ample speculation that the next pope could come from the Third World, a region such as Latin America, for example, where the number of Catholics is growing but so is poverty, and where the church faces threats from Protestant evangelical movements.

As Gonzalez Zumarraga noted, Latin Americans now make up the second-largest bloc of cardinals, after Europe. And they outnumber by one the Italians.

“Surely that will have an influence,” said the 78-year-old Ecuadorean.

Among the papabili, or potential popes, one of the Latins being mentioned by Vatican watchers is Cardinal Claudio Hummes of Brazil, the country with the most Catholics.

He is conservative in church doctrine; he once reprimanded a subordinate for advocating the distribution of condoms to the poor in Sao Paulo in an effort to prevent the spread of AIDS.

But Hummes, 69, is also a passionate advocate for the poor, a theme John Paul stressed in what may be his final major document, an exhortation to the bishops released last week.

“The great challenge for the church is how to give hope to a people who feel excluded -- not hope in theory but real hope,” Hummes said in an interview in which he outlined his pastoral agenda.

“It’s not about just giving people a handout, it’s about profound structural reforms. The church has to fight for public policies to conquer poverty,” he said.

Another favorite candidate among the Vaticanisti -- the journalists who cover the Vatican full time -- and among the British bookies who set the odds is Francis Arinze, 70, of Nigeria. Though a black pope might seem improbable in such a tradition-bound institution, proponents say his election would send a message as the Catholic Church grapples with the spread of Islam in Africa.

Among those who became cardinals Tuesday were three Africans, including Anthony Olubunmi Okogie, 67, of Lagos, who has campaigned against the imposition of Islamic law in Nigeria, and Sudan’s Gabriel Zubeir Wako, 62, who, as archbishop of Khartoum, has seen considerable persecution of Catholic priests.

“The country will be heard from,” Okogie said at a news conference before leaving Lagos for Rome.

When the white smoke puffing from the Sistine Chapel 25 years ago signaled the election of John Paul, he became the first non-Italian pope in more than 400 years. Some Vaticanisti suggest the cardinals will want to return the papacy to Italian hands, even though Italians hold a smaller proportion of seats than before. Italians got the most appointments Tuesday -- six -- and hold many of the top posts in John Paul’s inner circle.

Favored Italian candidates include Dionigi Tettamanzi, 69, of Milan, a popular, moderate cardinal since 1998, and Angelo Scola, 61, of Venice, a theological conservative who was in Tuesday’s class.

One thing is certain: The pope will not be from the United States.

“Even the appearance of being in some way captured by ... the world’s only superpower would not be helpful to the mission of the church,” Cardinal Francis George of Chicago told reporters.

John Paul has named all but five of the 135 cardinals who are eligible to be the next pope, and he has filled their ranks with men who hold beliefs similar to his own conservative theology. But several cardinals cautioned against expecting clones.

“Like appointees to the Supreme Court, they have their qualifications, but it doesn’t mean they aren’t thinking about things in a different way,” Mahony said. “You can’t say everyone is in this box, or that they are not thinking outside the box. Everyone’s reality is different. One might share the theological insights of the Holy Father but have his own pastoral reality that he’s struggling with.”

Justin Rigali, who is known for his loyalty to the Vatican and was the only American to become a cardinal Tuesday, was asked to what extent he would be representing the needs of Americans.

“A cardinal is chosen with consideration of his background and where he comes from. As such he represents his people,” the Los Angeles-born Rigali, archbishop of Philadelphia, said after Tuesday’s ceremony. “In the final analysis, you have to judge according to your conscience.”

The speculation about the next pope is endless and grew only muddier with Tuesday’s additions.

Belgian Cardinal Godfried Danneels, 70, often mentioned as a possible front-runner, said he repeatedly has been asked whether he wanted to be pope.

“I say nothing,” he told a reporter. “If I say yes, everybody will say he doesn’t know what he is saying. If I say no, they’ll say he’s lying.”