Opinion: Donald Trump’s campaign is in total disrepair, but don’t dance on his grave yet
With a little more than three weeks before Donald J. Trump takes a confetti shower as he accepts the presidential nomination at the Republican National Convention, this is the state of his campaign:
-- The campaign manager who helped shepherd his unlikely rise has been sacked.
-- Trump has, politically speaking, pennies in a jar compared to the cash his presumptive Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton has raised, and seems to have squandered what should have been a prime window of opportunity in which to reach potential donors.
-- A lot of the money he has raised has gone to Trump businesses, which, as the Associated Press put it, gives “already reluctant donors a fresh batch of reasons to withhold their money.”
-- Trump remains at odds with party leaders who fear his presence on the ticket will be toxic for Senate and congressional candidates in close races.
-- Civil lawsuits by students alleging they were defrauded by Trump University are still bubbling, though unlikely to reach trial until after the election.
-- That he refuses to release his tax returns remains a problem among voters who wonder if he’s hiding something.
-- To win a presidential election takes state-level organizing, of which the Trump campaign has done relatively little.
-- Some pledged delegates to the convention seek a rules change that will allow them to not vote for Trump on the first ballot as an act of conscience, which could deny him the nomination and spark a contested convention (though the odds of that are long).
But don’t start dancing on Trump’s political grave just yet.
His path to the White House has more than a few barriers, but who wins will likely hinge on whether voters in the crucial swing states dislike him more than they dislike Clinton. Or, conversely, fear a Trump administration more than another Clinton one. And who knows what voters’ moods will be like after the next four months of “Crooked Hillary” sneers and various conspiracy theories Trump flirts with, and the expected scorched-earth approach by Clinton and her supporters.
Yet right now Trump doesn’t have the money to mount an effective campaign at any level. His strategy so far has been to spew obnoxious ideas, mock his rivals, and ride the national media coverage. To keep getting free coverage he’ll need to keep making news, which in Trump’s case often involves outrageousness – a double-edged sword.
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