Racing! Our weekly handicapping lesson from Rob Henie

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we getting ready for the final two Kentucky Derby preps.

We’ll know the likely field for the Kentucky Derby after Saturday’s final two prep races—the Arkansas Derby and Lexington Stakes. The $1 million Arkansas Derby was supposed to be a showdown between undefeated Magnum Moon and Justify, but when McKinzie pulled off the Derby trail, trainer Bob Baffert decided to keep Justify home, where he won the Santa Anita Derby.

Baffert instead sent Solomini to Oaklawn, pulling the colt from a scheduled appearance in the Wood Memorial. Magnum Moon is the 8-5 favorite and Solomini is 2-1. Quip, winner of the Tampa Bay Derby, is also in the race.

Also on the card is the Oaklawn Handicap, with a familiar horse as the 9-5 favorite. Accelerate, winner of the Santa Anita Handicap and trained by John Sadler, will lead a field of 11. City Of Light is also in the race at 3-1.

The other race is the $200,000 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. We take at look at two of the horses—My Boy Jack and Greyvitos in another story. To read, just click here.

Our handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from Saturday’s sixth race at Santa Anita.

“Maiden $50,000 claimers going 5 ½ furlongs, and here’s a good example of simply understanding the local horsemen, in regard to our top choice FOR THE HUSTLE (#4). Trainer Bruce Headley is an “Oats and Hay” trainer, just an old school horseman, and by the same token, a bit harder on his young runners, still “pin firing” (an old school method used to strengthen the shins, but not used by the majority of trainers), and simply asking a lot of his young horses, precisely why you’ll see so many 4 and 5 year olds debuting for Bruce. When they do show up, you can bet they’re mentally tough, and ready for their first try, usually worth the wait. This guy’s been working super for his 4-year-old debut, and Headley gives Matt Garcia the mount, which is rare these days for a guy who’s been in and around the track forever. POLITY (#5) returns off a nearly two-year layoff, but he’s ready. A nice set of drills followed by the recent slower one, a good sign, telling us they needed nothing more from him while awaiting this next effort, and not eligible to be claimed, a California rule enabling a trainer to run back while protecting off the long layoff.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Maiden Listed Condition: $50,000

“WCHR Estimated Level: $8,000

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 4-5

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): none

“Positive Notes:

“7 Johnny Ray - Strings races together for the first time, always encouraging.

“First Timers:

“1 Severin - Capestro just doesn’t win anymore, usually overplacing her runners.

“3 Call Ended - Prepping for longer.

“8 Rebel On the Run - Drills are nice for new trainer Curtis, but we’d prefer to give the effort, likely better with two turns next time out.

“Morning Line Underlays / Overlays:

“4 For the Hustle - Morning Line 10-1 / WCHR Line 6-1

“TOP PICK: FOR THE HUSTLE (#4 10-1 Garcia)

“SECOND CHOICE: POLITY (#5 4-1 Talamo)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

Halo Darlin won Friday’s feature, an allowance for Cal-bred fillies and mares going 6 ½ furlongs down the hillside course on the turf. She went four wide into the stretch to rally and win by 2 ¼ lengths. Queen Bee To You finished second and All Of A Sudden was third. Halo Darlin paid $15.80, $6.80 and $3.80 for trainer Peter Miller. Stewart Elliott was the jockey.

Santa Anita preview

Santa Anita has a larger than normal card of 11 races, starting at noon. While it doesn’t have the caliber of racing that it did last Saturday, it’s a nice betting card with no small fields. In fact, the smallest field is seven horses in the second and seventh races. There was a time last year that seven was one of the larger fields during some dirt races.

The feature is seventh, the $100,000 Thor’s Echo Handicap for Cal-breds 3 and up going 6 furlongs. It should be a competitive race with Edwards Going Left listed at 6-5, Tough Sunday is 7-5 and B Squared is 2-1.

Edwards Going Left is taking a big class drop after running third in the Triple Bend and second in the Malibu Stakes, both Grade 1s won by City Of Light. Tough Sunday is coming off a win in the ungraded Sensational Star Stakes and B Squared, who hasn’t won in his last six starts.

The field sizes in order: 9, 7, 8, 8, 8, 8, 7, 9 (5 also eligible), 9, 9 (1 AE) and 9.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

11:29 Aqueduct: $100,000 Plenty of Grace Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: My Impression (7-5)

1:24 Keeneland: Grade 3 $200,000 Ben Ali Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Chip Leader (5-2)

1:57 Keeneland: $100,000 Giant’s Causeway Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 5 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Lady Aurelia (4-5)

2:17 Aqueduct: $100,000 Bridgetown Stakes, 3 year olds, 6 furlongs on the turf. Favorite: All Systems Go (2-1)

2:33 Oaklawn: $150,000 Northern Spur Stakes, 3 year olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Title Ready (3-2)

2:34 Keeneland: Grade 3 $200,000 Lexington Stakes, 3 year olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: My Boy Jack (5-2)

3:00 Santa Anita: $100,000 Thor’s Echo Stakes, Cal-breds 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Edwards Going Left (6-5)

3:09 Oaklawn: Grade 3 $400,000 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap, 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Whitmore (7-5)

3:12 Keeneland: Grade 1 $350,000 Jenny Wiley Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Sister Charlie (7-2)

3:40 Oaklawn: Grade 2 $750,000 Oaklawn Handicap, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Accelerate (9-5)

4:18 Oaklawn: Grade 1 $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby, 3 year olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Magnum Moon (8-5)

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

TENTH RACE: No. 1 Aquaphobia (3-1)

Older turf horse from Robert Falcone stable was in steep last time when battling on the lead and tiring in the Grade 2 San Luis Rey going 1 1/2 miles. He now shortens up to a mile, gets back in with his friends and seems much more effective with a target at which to run. Look for a big rebound effort today.

Friday Result: All of a Sudden did not break alertly, moved up along the inside, got through a big opening at top of the stretch but could only manage third in the eighth race.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

FIFTH RACE: No. 6 All Time Hi (3-1)

He showed sharp improvement when disqualified from rapid victory two weeks ago while making second start for trainer Valentin Zamudio, who is winning at a 20 percent clip. He leveled with a big stride after shifting out early to impede two rivals and now gets a positive class hike from $8,000 to $12,500. He also lands 2016 leading quarter horse rider Cesar DeAlba.

Final thought

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And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

HACKLETON had speed three deep between horses, angled in on the first turn and set a pressured pace inside, drifted out into the stretch, continued to drift out through the drive despite right handed urging and held gamely. OREJAS pressed the pace between horses then outside HACKLETON, came out into the stretch, also drifted out some in the drive then was fanned out through the final furlong and steadied briefly in deep stretch but continued willingly. ROMAN TIZZY four wide into the first turn, stalked between horses then outside a rival leaving the backstretch and on the second turn, came out four wide into the stretch and picked up the show. AWE five wide into the first turn, stalked outside then bid three deep on the backstretch, tracked the leaders outside on the second turn and three wide into the stretch, drifted in through the final furlong and weakened. HARROVIAN saved ground, steadied in tight early on the first turn then was in a bit tight again early on the backstretch, stalked inside throughout and lacked a response in the stretch. SOUTHERN FREEDOM saved ground chasing the pace, dropped back on the backstretch and second turn and also lacked a further response. Following a stewards' inquiry and a claim of foul by the rider of the OREJAS against HACKLETON, the latter was disqualified and placed second for interference through the stretch.

DARE TO ENTER four wide into the first turn, chased off the rail, moved up outside on the second turn, took the lead three wide into the stretch, drifted in some through the final furlong and held under urging. WRITE ME A SONG had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away on the second turn, fought back from the inside through the stretch and continued gamely to the end. MINISTERTOMYHEART came off the rail early on the first turn, went outside a rival then chased off the inside, angled in some for the second turn, came out into the stretch, drifted in some in the final furlong and just got the show. I'M AMORE between horses early, dueled outside a rival, stalked just off the inside on the second turn and just lost third. WHEN JESUS WALKED chased off the inside, came four wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. TRE stalked off the rail, split horses midway on the second turn, came three wide into the stretch, drifted in and weakened.

BELLA SIERRA dueled outside a rival, came out into the stretch while taking the lead, battled outside that foe in the stretch, inched clear under left handed urging in deep stretch and proved best. PAPRIKA stalked between horses then outside a rival, came out into the stretch, drifted inward in midstretch and gained the place. WHOA NESSIE had good early speed and angled in, dueled inside, came a bit off the rail into the stretch, fought back past midstretch and bested the others. AND COUNTING broke slowly, settled outside a rival then angled in on the hill, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. PULPACHEEKS stalked three deep, drifted four wide into the stretch and weakened. FULL COURT settled a bit off the rail, continued outside a rival into the stretch and did not rally. BAD AND BOUGIE saved ground stalking the pace, continued inside into and through the stretch and weakened. I ADORE YOU hesitated to be off slowly, angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, cut the corner into the stretch and had little left for the drive. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

ELEVATED KNIGHT angled in and dueled outside a rival, took the lead in upper stretch, battled outside the runner-up through a stiff drive and inched away under urging nearing the wire. STUDLY PERFECTION had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back through the lane, could not match the winner late but was clearly second best. LIPSTER stalked between horses then a bit off the rail on the second turn, angled to the inside into the stretch, continued along the rail and edged a rival for the show. KALEIDOSCOPE KID tugged along the inside early, saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch and was edged for third. MAC MCLOVIN a step slow to begin, chased three deep, continued outside on the second turn and three wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. SHACKALOV four wide into the first turn, stalked outside then bid three deep on the backstretch, continued outside a rival on the second turn and three wide into the stretch and weakened.

GOSEECAL chased a bit off the rail then inside on the hill, bid along the fence in the stretch under urging to gain the lead and won clear. AN EDDIE SURPRISE stalked inside, came out into the stretch, bid outside the pacesetter then three deep in midstretch and held second. NEON GYPSY chased outside a rival then between horses leaving the hill, came out nearing the dirt crossing then was fanned four wide into the stretch and gained the show. ZERO ZEE sped between horses to the early lead, set the pace a bit off the rail ten inside, came a bit off the fence in the stretch, fought back between horses in midstretch and weakened late. LOOKING AT THELAKE chased outside a rival then off the rail, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. MIDNIGHT LILLY hopped slightly at the start, angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, continued inside in the stretch and could not offer the needed late kick. CYNTHIANA chased outside a rival then three deep leaving the hill, came out nearing the dirt crossing, was fanned five wide into the stretch and lacked the necessary response. DR. ANN between horses early, stalked a bit off the rail then outside a rival, was fanned three deep into the stretch and weakened. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

CREATIVE SPARK sped to the early lead and angled in, dueled inside, inched away on the turn, came a bit off the rail into the stretch and drew clear under some urging and steady handling. SPACERIKA chased outside then four wide leaving the backstretch and three deep on the turn and into the stretch, drifted in some and edged foes for second between rivals late. DEE WAY TO GO hopped some at the start, angled in and dueled outside the winner then stalked off the rail on the turn, came out into the stretch, drifted in through the final furlong and was edged for the place. TOPAZ TIME chased outside then three deep on the turn and four wide into the stretch and was edged for a minor award three wide on the line. BLAME THE WEATHER between horses early, stalked outside a rival then a bit off the rail leaving the turn and lacked a rally. TENGS WONDER bumped between horses at the start, stalked just off the rail then inside, saved ground on the turn and into the stretch and weakened. HEATHER'S WISH broke in, bumped a rival and bobbled then steadied at the start, saved ground off the pace, came out into the stretch and did not rally. BISCOTTI GAL bumped at the start, was sent inside then saved ground chasing the pace to the stretch and weakened. TENGAS BEST GIRL broke inward, chased between horses then off the rail on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and had little left for the drive.

CINNAMON TWIST saved ground stalking the pace, came out leaving the turn and again into the stretch, bid outside the pacesetter past the eighth pole, gained the lead under urging and won clear. COW DOG sped to the early lead off the rail, angled in and dueled inside, inched away in the stretch, was not a match for the winner in the final sixteenth but held second. ALL NET stalked outside a rival then off the rail on the turn, angled in entering the stretch, came a bit off the fence in the drive and edged a foe for third. ESTHERFOURFOURTEEN stalked outside then bid three deep to duel for the lead on the backstretch and turn and into the stretch and was outfinished for the show. MAMA'S KID bobbled at the start, dropped back off the rail then chased outside, angled in outside a rival on the turn, came four wide into the stretch, drifted inward in the drive and weakened. INNYMINNIEMINEYMOE fell back off the inside early, came out four wide into the stretch and did not rally. CONDI stalked inside then bid between horses to duel for the lead on the backstretch and turn and into the stretch and wakened in the final furlong.

HALO DARLIN chased outside then four wide midway on the hill, continued three deep leaving the hill and four wide into the stretch, bid three wide under left handed urging to gain the lead a sixteenth out and pulled clear. QUEEN BEE TO YOU sped to a clear early lead, set the pace off the rail, drifted out some into the stretch, battled outside a rival in midstretch, drifted in and fought back between foes a sixteenth out and held second. ALL OF A SUDDEN a bit slow to begin, chased just off the rail then inside, cut the corner into the stretch then bid inside in the drive and was edged for the place. SILVERSPUN PICKUP stalked a bit off the inside then between horses down the hill, continued just off the fence in the stretch and lacked a rally. LADY ESPIONAGE chased four wide then three deep leaving the hill and into the stretch and could not summon the necessary response. PROMNESIA close up stalking the pace outside a rival then three deep on the hill and into the stretch and weakened. LI'L GRAZEN broke a bit slowly, saved ground chasing the pace, steadied in tight midway on the hill, came out in the stretch and lacked a rally. WONDERFUL LIE chased between horses, angled in midway on the hill, saved ground chasing the pace and weakened in the drive. ASHLEY'S CHARMS broke in and a bit slowly, chased between horses to the stretch and weakened in the lane. Rail on hill at 14 feet.