Democrats pin hopes on cash, groundswell of voter support

With just four weeks remaining, Democrats are banking on their congressional majorities being saved by two main factors: money and an uncertain effort to return to the polls the thousands of the infrequent and first-time voters who helped put Barack Obama into the White House in 2008.

The Democratic National Committee announced Monday that the party had raised $16 million in September, its best fund-raising month of the 2010 election cycle and one of the best by either party for any midterm year. Party officials highlighted one statistic to argue that the party’s grassroots base is again invested: 80% of the total dollars raised came from low-dollar donors online and by mail.

At the White House, Press Secretary Robert Gibbs argued that the enthusiasm gap was tightening, in part because President Obama had “made the case effectively about why people need to be involved and what’s at stake.”

On Sunday, Obama is set to host the second of four major “Moving America Forward” rallies, this time in Philadelphia. The first event, on the campus of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, was centered on young voters, but organizers said the upcoming event had a broader focus that included reaching out to African American voters.

Republicans seem undeterred by the Democratic spin, saying they still have the upper hand in many of the key races. Ron Jesmer, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, says in a memo Monday that although many Democrats are on the defensive, all of the GOP’s incumbents seeking new terms will be reelected and that they are well positioned to hold their open seats.

“The political environment clearly favors Republicans more heavily today than it did Democrats in 2006 and 2008,” Jesmer writes. “Independent voters prefer Republican candidates by a double-digit margin; Republican voters are 20% more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats; our candidates and the NRSC have a significant cash advantage.”

In House races, the National Republican Congressional Committee continues to be aggressive on the airwaves, with advertisements launched in more than 40 districts — enough to regain control of the House. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has had a fund-raising advantage throughout the year but has held back on unleashing that war chest in a similar way, even as early voting has begun in many states.

Beyond fund-raising, there are other key metrics to watch this week. First, Gallup pegs Obama’s approval rating through September at 45%, a one-point improvement from August but still in dangerous territory ahead of a midterm election. Many Democratic candidates in tough races continue to put distance between themselves and the national leadership, though one exception is Cedric Richmond, who features an endorsement from Obama in his first television ad in the 2nd Congressional District of Louisiana.

No statistic could be more important than one due Friday, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its monthly jobs report. Any significant shift in the unemployment rate will boost either party’s argument on the key issue of the economy.

mmemoli@tribune.com

twitter.com/mikememoli