Few Iraqis to Vote Abroad

Efforts to register Iraqi expatriates to vote in Sunday’s elections have fallen far short of expectations, drawing fewer than 10% of the eligible voters in the United States and fewer than 25% worldwide, officials said Tuesday.

The program was launched two months ago by the Iraqi election commission -- which is dominated by exiles -- in hopes of giving a voice to Iraqis driven abroad by Saddam Hussein and of beefing up vote totals for the moderate Iraqi political parties led by exiles.

But as registration closed Tuesday, it became clear that the $92-million effort had been hampered by a late start, the long distances between registration sites and many expatriates’ mixed feelings about the election.

Sam Kubba, an Iraqi American businessman in northern Virginia who lobbied hard to win expatriate votes, said he had been sorely disappointed in the result. “It was a long distance to travel ... and the elections had lost credibility with some people,” Kubba said.

A senior U.S. official said the low turnout meant expatriate voters would not be a major factor in the election, adding that the relatively low turnout in the United States was “not all that surprising.”

“People have a way of settling in the United States and forgetting about the old country,” he said.

A tally that included all but the last day of registration showed that about 24,000 of an estimated 240,000 eligible Iraqi Americans signed up over the nine-day registration period, and about 256,000 out of an estimated 1.2 million eligible Iraqi expatriates worldwide. The figures suggest expatriate voters will be less influential than some analysts had forecast.

More Iraqi expatriates made it to the registration sites in countries other than the United States.

Iran, a refuge for Shiite Muslim Iraqis for decades, led in registration, with 53,145, or 66%, of the estimated 81,000 Iraqis eligible there.

In Sweden, 51% of 57,000 eligible voters registered. In Jordan, where many Sunni Muslim Iraqis live, only about 14,000, or 8%, of 180,000 expatriates registered. In Syria, the figure was 14,000 of 250,000 eligible expatriates, or 6%.

In the United States, of five registration sites, Detroit had the largest turnout, with about 9,000 registered. Chicago had about 5,600, followed by Nashville with about 3,800, Irvine with 3,700 and New Carrollton, Md., outside Washington, with 1,800.

During the registration period, which began Jan. 17, many Iraqi Americans traveled hundreds of miles for the opportunity to cast ballots in the first competitive Iraqi election in more than 50 years. But others were upset by the hastily arranged and complex logistics.

Iraqi Americans were required to travel once to the polling place to register, and a second time a few days later to vote.

The use of mail-in ballots was ruled out. Snowstorms in three of the cities -- New Carrollton, Detroit and Chicago -- hindered transportation.

Najmaldin Karim, president of the Washington Kurdish Institute, said the effort was hurt by a hasty schedule, poor planning and little effort by the Iraqi political parties to reach voters in other countries. Although the Kurdish vote was expected to be high inside Iraq, some Kurdish Americans were “ambivalent” voting for a new Iraq in which the autonomy of Kurds was in question, he said.

“The numbers speak for themselves,” Karim said.

The International Organization for Migration, or IOM, the Geneva-based nongovernmental group chosen in November to organize the expatriate election, defended the program. They registered more than a quarter of a million Iraqis in two months without violence.

“We are very pleased with the number that are coming out,” Jeremy Copeland of IOM said.

In Iraq, news of the registration figures brought charges that the IOM had blundered by overestimating the size of the expatriate community.

“The IOM inflated its estimates,” said Ezzedine Mohammedi, a member of the Iraqi election commission. “The IOM said there are 1.25 million voters technically. But we can’t put a polling station in every city, and it’s difficult for [exile] voters to reach voting stations if they have to travel from far away.”

In fact, the IOM’s estimates are lower than those of some other analysts.

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy estimated this week that the number of eligible Iraqi expatriates might be as high as 2 million, which would mean that only 13% of eligible voters had registered.

At the former El Toro Marine base in Irvine -- the only Western U.S. polling station -- manager Salem Aljawad was disappointed at the low turnout. Organizers underestimated how difficult people would find it to travel to the polling stations, both to register and to vote, he said.

“Of course, some people have the dedication to drive so far, but it’s very low numbers,” he said. “We know people are motivated, but sometimes it’s not so easy. Yesterday, we had a lady come who was 105 years old. Some people are willing to go to China to vote.”

Lowis Gorgis and his friend, Gilbert Younan, would have missed the chance to vote if registration had ended as planned on Sunday. Gorgis’ trip to register was delayed for a common reason: “I had to work.”

But after the registration deadline was extended worldwide by two days, they drove from Modesto.

“We’re glad we made it,” said Gorgis, 42, who moved to the U.S. in 1993. His wife, mother, son and two sisters escaped from Iraq, and another son was born in California. For him, the election is a way to reconnect with a country he’ll only see again as a visitor.

“This is our future,” Gorgis said. “We need to elect people who are willing to work for us for real.”

At the registration site in New Carrollton, manager Muhanad Bahia said the number of registered voters was much lower than the 5,000 to 10,000 expected. He said that in addition to the bad weather, the long journey, and many Iraqis’ plans for hajj pilgrimages to Mecca, Saudi Arabia, many expatriates had a vague fear of retribution.

“They were watched by Saddam Hussein for years,” Bahia said. “People are saying, ‘Do I want to expose myself?’ ”

Although the New Carrollton site was largely empty, the Iraqis who did appear clearly felt passionate about voting.

Musa Marashi, 58, a businessman from Holmdale, N.J., drove four hours with his friend, Kahid Zahid, 65, to register at the East Coast’s only voting site.

A Shiite who fled Iraq 35 years ago, Marashi said he was undecided on which slate he would choose, and thought that his vote was “not going to make a difference.”

“I wanted to vote even if there is no chance, like the Nader ticket,” he said, referring to U.S. presidential candidate Ralph Nader.

“We’re voting for a free Iraq. I don’t care who is elected as long as they are legitimate.”

Times staff writers Alissa J. Rubin in Baghdad, Maggie Farley in New York, Jean O. Pasco in Irvine and Elise Castelli in New Carrollton contributed to this report.