Bush, GOP Downsize Ambitions for 2006

For the White House and the Republican-controlled Congress, the tumult of 2005 has been an object lesson in the political risks of thinking big.

Bush began the year with grand ambitions to overhaul the sacrosanct Social Security program, rewrite the entire tax code, bring stability to war-torn Iraq and retain expanded law-enforcement powers to fight terrorism -- and fell far short, dividing his own party and taking a beating in the polls.

Chastened by the experience and eager to play it safe in an election year, Republicans are preparing for a new year of thinking small.

Instead of reworking the entire tax code, Republicans will be gratified if they can just make current tax cuts permanent. A bill to tighten border security is in the works, but a more ambitious plan to curb illegal immigration is in doubt. An early priority of Senate Republicans? The arcane issue of asbestos litigation.

“This is an exhausted administration,” said Michael Tanner, an analyst with the libertarian Cato Institute who worked with the White House to promote its Social Security plan. “It’s going to be very hard for this administration to come out with a big new initiative.”

When Bush was asked at last week’s news conference what he wanted to accomplish in 2006, he offered mostly amorphous goals: promoting peace and democracy, creating jobs and rebuilding New Orleans. It was a far cry from the crisp, specific plans he has laid in past years for tax cuts, education improvement and overhauling Social Security.

To fill the agenda gap, the White House has been casting a wide net, soliciting ideas in a recent series of closed-door meetings with business leaders, think tank intellectuals, lawmakers and others. “The White House has realized they had too ambitious an agenda and are retooling as we speak,” said Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.), who was at one brainstorming session with senior Bush aide Karl Rove. “They are looking at what is achievable, versus the grand big picture.”

Bush is, in effect, seeking a second start to his second term. But even in looking for the merely achievable, political limits loom large.

“A lot of people are thinking the big thoughts, but there’s a sense that no matter what way you turn, the ugly head of gridlock emerges and you always fall short,” said one conservative thinker close to the administration who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Bush’s problem is not just that he has failed to achieve key second-term goals. The year has left him in a worse position to do what he wants than when he started. The Social Security battle has inflamed partisan passions, making it less likely that he’ll be able to deal with the thorny issue. Budget deficits -- widened by the costs of the Iraq war and the recovery from Hurricane Katrina -- will make it harder to extend Bush’s cherished tax cuts.

That leaves a remarkably uncertain outlook for a president and a Republican Party that a year ago emerged from elections ready to swing for the fences, promising to leave an enduring conservative mark on government and politics.

“He overreached in spades,” said G. Calvin Mackenzie, a government professor at Colby College in Maine. “It was the most ambitious second-term agenda in memory. I don’t know if it was a misjudgment, but it did fall apart much quicker than I thought it would.”

After the 2004 elections gave Bush his second term and Republicans wider margins of control in Congress, an emboldened president promised big changes, not incremental tinkering. Rove was hailed as the architect of GOP victories. Republican leaders swaggered with confidence.

“My fellow conservatives, we have waited our entire lives for the chance the American people have given us in the next two years,” Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas), then House majority leader, said after the election. “I pledge to each and every one of you, we will seize it.”

A year later, DeLay has been indicted on money-laundering charges and forced from his leadership post. Rove is under investigation in connection with the unmasking of a CIA officer.

And Bush, despite an intense campaign, failed to persuade many in his party -- let alone Democrats -- to embrace the defining mission of his second-term domestic agenda: to shift from New Deal reliance on government safety nets to an “ownership society” in which individuals would have more responsibility in handling their healthcare and retirement.

The cornerstone of that vision was his plan to remake Social Security by allowing younger workers to divert some of their payroll taxes into personal investment accounts. Bush ultimately acknowledged there was no appetite in Congress for the politically risky venture.

Still, Republicans used their increased power in Washington to enact an array of measures less ambitious in scope but coveted by key GOP constituencies.

Congress delighted the business community with new laws to overhaul the bankruptcy code and limit class-action lawsuits. Soon to follow were tax breaks for energy companies and an agreement to expand trade with Central America.

Gun owners applauded a new law limiting the legal liability of gun manufacturers.

Social conservatives cheered the extraordinary -- even if unsuccessful -- efforts by Congress and Bush to keep Terri Schiavo, a brain-damaged Florida woman, alive via a feeding tube.

Republicans went home for August recess pleased with their accomplishments, but many voters were unimpressed. In September, a CBS News/New York Times poll found that 29% believed that Congress had the same priorities for the country as they did.

And through the summer and fall, Bush was thrown on the defensive by a barrage of events that mocked Republican hopes that things could not get worse for them.

Violence intensified in Iraq. Gas prices soared. Hurricane Katrina hit and the federal government faltered in its response. DeLay, with his indictment, stepped down as majority leader. His Senate counterpart, Bill Frist (R-Tenn.), came under investigation for possible insider trading. The president’s nomination of his White House counsel, Harriet E. Miers, to the Supreme Court was withdrawn.

Moreover, GOP moderates and conservatives clashed over spending and tax policy. Party discipline crumbled. Renewal of the Patriot Act, Bush’s signature anti-terrorism initiative, stalled. A bipartisan outcry arose over news that Bush had authorized domestic surveillance without court order. While Republicans pushed through a budget bill with the first significant belt-tightening in more than a decade, a plan to open more Alaska wilderness to oil drilling collapsed.

Against that backdrop, the White House and GOP leaders have been searching for tools to dig out of their political hole. A big part of that effort has been Bush’s aggressive campaign to explain and defend his strategy in Iraq, giving five major speeches and one news conference in less than three weeks.

Another element of the GOP recovery strategy is a drive to promote good news about the economy. “There was a collective frustration not only from members on the Hill but from here [at the White House] that the strong economy, for whatever reason, was not being felt by the American people,” said Trent Duffy, White House deputy press secretary. “It dawned on everyone that this economy is the great untold story of 2005, and someone has to tell it.”

The public relations offensive may be paying off. A Washington Post/ABC News poll published last week found Bush’s approval rating jumped to 47%, up from 39% in early November.

“When the president comes out on the offense, things change,” said House Republican Conference Chairwoman Deborah Pryce (R-Ohio).

The White House is also trying to challenge the critique of Bush as an insular president who listens only to a small close-knit circle of loyal advisors.

In mid-December, he invited a group of congressional Democrats who supported the invasion of Iraq to come to the White House for a briefing. Earlier, Bush, Rove and other top aides met for an hour with representatives of some of the nation’s traditional civil rights organizations -- including an official from the National Assn. for the Advancement of Colored People, a group that Bush has repeatedly declined to address since taking office.

Some Democrats think such consultations are for show, but some Republicans who have met with Bush and his aides over the last month say they seem more open to suggestions than in past years, when Bush was trying to promote his major initiatives.

“This was unprecedented in comparison to other conversations of this type in previous years,” said one business leader. “They were on ‘receive,’ not ‘transmit.’ ”

So far, Republicans in Congress say it is not clear who or what will fill next year’s agenda.

Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.) said the agenda should not be as ambitious as the one Bush promoted this year, nor as targeted to GOP constituencies as this year’s legislative output has been. Instead, he said, the agenda should center on manageable problems with broader constituencies.

“Instead of doing issues of importance to the Republican base, we need issues of interest to independent voters,” Davis said. “They will be doable things.”

That is why some Republicans want to pursue narrowly focused health measures, such as bills encouraging the use of electronic medical records or fine-tuning the new Medicare prescription drug benefit.

The tumultuous year, and the uncertain direction of the party, may also fuel efforts to shake up House GOP leadership after DeLay’s indictment.

“We need new faces and new blood, people who want to get back to a strong agenda,” said one senior House Republican who spoke on the condition of anonymity, fearing leadership retribution. “There is a void in leadership.”

*

Times staff writer Peter Wallsten contributed to this report.