Poll Analysis: Clinton’s Job Approval Rating Highest Ever

Bolstered by high marks for his State of the Union speech, and the American public’s strong support of his proposed domestic policies, President Clinton’s job approval rating has soared to the highest level he has ever achieved since he became president, according to a new Los Angeles Times Poll. Feelings of peace and prosperity are also helping him weather the serious allegations that are being charged against him. According to the new survey, more than half of Americans believe the country is heading in the right direction, an overwhelming majority think the nation’s economy is doing well, and more than half of the public believe that the country is in better shape because of President Clinton’s performance in office over the past five years.

Clinton’s job approval is now at 68% and disapproval at 29%. This is about a ten point increase over his job approval rating from a Times poll taken last weekend.

He is also getting a rise in his favorability rating—back to where he was in a 9/97 Times poll. His favorability rating in this current survey is 57% and his unfavorability rating is 36%. Last week he was at 48% favorable and 45% unfavorable. Compared to last week’s survey, self-described independents have turned from a slightly negative impression (41% favorable, 49% unfavorable) to a stronger positive impression (56% favorable, 36% unfavorable). Younger respondents have moved from a hefty negative rating (54%) to a substantially positive rating (59%).

A majority of Americans believe Clinton has the honesty and integrity to serve as president (slightly better than last week’s poll at 50%). Three out of five respondents think Clinton is credible. Three out of five respondents agree that it is possible for Clinton to behave unethically in his personal life while maintaining integrity in his presidential responsibilities.

Seven in ten respondents also believe that Clinton is fundamentally a decent person with some character flaws, while only 26% think he is amoral and not a decent person.

State of the Union

Fifty-one percent say they saw or heard the State of the Union speech with another 21% reading or hearing about it later. Three-quarters of those who saw or heard the speech gave the president an excellent or good rating. And high grades were given by all demographic groups who saw or heard the speech. He came across as presidential and that he was still in power and in control and still governing as usual. Other polling organizations showed that most of the public did not want Clinton to talk about the allegations during his speech. Clinton made the right move by not talking about his problems. Two-thirds of respondents who saw or heard the speech say they weren’t distracted by thoughts of the allegations against the president. One in ten say they were very distracted and a fifth say they were somewhat distracted.

More than a third of the respondents surveyed say they are more confident about Clinton’s ability to lead the country after hearing his speech, 54% say it would not make any difference and about one in 10 say they have less confidence.

Allegations That Clinton Had Affair with Monica Lewinsky

There isn’t a rush to judgment on the part of the American public about whether or not President Clinton had an alleged affair with former White House intern Monica Lewinsky. They are waiting and watching to find out the facts before they make their decision about the president. They also don’t want this alleged affair or his denial of it to force him out of office. And if there is no conclusive evidence one way or the other they are more inclined to believe the president over Lewinsky. Furthermore, nearly half of the respondents don’t believe Lewinsky is credible.

Forty-two percent of the public believe it to be true that Clinton had an affair with Lewinsky, 38% think it to be untrue. Last week, 44% thought it to be true and 33% untrue. Self-described independents were more inclined to think the allegations were true last week (45%) than this week. This poll shows them divided over whether they think it to be true or not (38% true, 38% untrue). The elderly think these charges are untrue (48%) while the 18–29 year old group think it to be true (46%).

Last week people were split as to whether they thought Clinton encouraged Lewinsky to lie under oath (42%–44%). Now, more are inclined to believe that he didn’t encourage the former intern to lie (45%) than believe he did (38%). Men have changed their feelings from last week’s survey and now are divided whether they believe these allegations to be true or not (39%–41%). Self-described independents believe it to be untrue (46%). More of the younger respondents think Clinton encouraged Lewinsky to lie while more of the older respondents (45 and older) think this allegation to be untrue.

The public is split on whether this situation is of importance to the nation or not. Last week more respondents thought it was of importance to the nation at 55%. Men don’t think it is of importance (52%) -- their opinion has changed from from last week when they thought it was (56%). Interestingly, self-described Democrats last week thought this situation was of importance to the nation (52%) and now two-thirds are saying it is of little importance.

And Democrats are more convinced in this poll that these charges will blow over (56%) than they were in last week’s survey (42%). A third think this will diminish his ability to lead over the next three years and just 6% think it will destroy it.

But if the charges prove to be true, the public wants the president to be punished in some way. First, more than 3 out of five respondents don’t think he should resign or be impeached if he had an extramarital affair with a former White House intern, a fifth think he should be impeached and one in eight say he should resign, but not be impeached.

However, if it proves true that Clinton lied under oath about having the affair, 41% want him impeached and another 10% want him to resign (42% want neither).

Going one step further, if it proves true that Clinton tried to obstruct justice by influencing Lewinsky to lie about the affair, a large majority (57%) want him impeached and another 8% want him to resign, while 28% want neither. As you can see, as the allegations become more serious, more of the public wants to see a more severe form of punishment.

Before these recent allegations of infidelity, nearly three out of five respondents thought Clinton had engaged in extramarital affairs. More than two out of five voters who said they voted for Clinton in both the 1992 and 1996 elections believe that Clinton has had affairs, 28% don’t think he had. Forty-five percent of those who voted for him in just ‘96 say he has had affairs and 45% of those who voted for him in just ‘92 also say he has had affairs. Virtually all who voted Republican in both elections believe he was adulterous.

Some good news for the president, Americans don’t want Secret Service agents to be able to testify about what they see of the president’s personal life when they are on duty. A majority (53%) say Secret Service agents should receive immunity from testifying, 41% say they shouldn’t. Republicans don’t want them to receive immunity, while Democrats and independents do. The public may think if they didn’t have immunity it would infringe upon the way the president is protected.

Partisan Politics

Almost 3 out of five of respondents say the allegations against Bill Clinton have more to do with partisan politics than getting at the truth. And more than half of the public agrees with Hillary Clinton that these allegations are part of a continuing right-wing conspiracy to bring down Bill Clinton’s presidency. Moderate Republicans are divided over this theory (44%–49%). Overall, men agree marginally (49% agree, 45% disagree), compared to 54% of women who agree with the conspiracy theory. Self-described independents agree with Hillary’s charges, 52%–41%.

Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr’s job approval rating is not very good. Thirty-seven percent give him a negative rating, while 32% give him a positive job rating and 31% are undecided. Yet, a small plurality don’t believe Starr is unfairly going after Monica Lewinsky. And only a small plurality of Democrats agree that Starr is going after her.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,314 adults nationwide by telephone January 29–31. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, and region. The margin of sampling error for all adults is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.