Maoists’ edge a stunner in Nepal

Defying nearly everyone’s expectations but their own, Nepal’s former Maoist rebels held a commanding lead today in partial results from last week’s elections, a showing that could have profound effects on the Himalayan nation.

With the votes tabulated for more than 80% of the 240 seats contested by direct election in an assembly charged with writing a new constitution, the Maoists had won 113 and were ahead in three more districts, Nepal’s Election Commission reported. The tally dwarfs that of the two other major parties: the Nepali Congress, with 30 seats, and a grouping known as the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), with 28.

The results so far have confounded analysts, most of whom had predicted before Thursday’s vote that the Maoists would come in third. But without any proper polling data available, those forecasts were little more than guesses about the outcome of Nepal’s first election in nine years.

Many observers still believe that the Maoists, who laid down their arms in November 2006 after a decade of guerrilla war, will find it hard to land a majority in the new 601-member constituent assembly. Under the complex rules governing the body’s composition, 335 seats will be allocated proportionally to the parties based on the results of a separate ballot cast Thursday. The remaining seats will be appointed.

It could be several days before the full makeup of the assembly becomes clear.

Throughout the campaign, the Maoist leader, who goes by the nom de guerre Prachanda, said confidently that his party would sweep the elections -- claims that were dismissed by commentators as mere bravado.

But as results trickled in, including Prachanda’s own win in a Maoist stronghold on the edge of the capital, Katmandu, many of his supporters began declaring victory. They have ignored the leadership’s warning not to celebrate prematurely and thronged the streets.

“Shock and awe,” the English-language Nepali Times said on its website Monday.

Explanations are flying as to why the Maoists did so well.

Though election observers called the vote generally free and fair, outbreaks of violence and reports of intimidation, most of it allegedly by Maoist cadres, marred the campaign. Some voters also might have feared that the Maoists would take up arms again and wreak havoc if they were denied a victory at the polls.

But the pundits may have underestimated the thirst for change among a populace none too impressed with how the other parties performed in office during previous iterations of democratic government, which brought little improvement to people’s lives.

Both the Nepali Congress and the CPN (UML) have been accused of corruption and ineptitude. In the eyes of many, their leaders also were tainted for having worked with King Gyanendra, whose 15-month absolute rule provoked a popular revolt two years ago that may culminate in the monarchy’s being written out of existence in the new constitution.

“People were simply fed up with these parties,” said C.K. Lal, a columnist for the Nepali Times. “They lost touch on the ground. The Maoists promised a new kind of politics. The older parties were portrayed as corrupt, people indulging in deal politics, the elite sitting in a room, forming a deal and thrusting it upon the people. The Maoists said, ‘No, what we do we’ll do in the open.’ ”

The insurgency, in which more than 13,000 people died, still gives some Nepalese pause over the idea of the Maoists in government. The U.S. lists the Maoists as a terrorist group; during its 10-year “people’s war,” members were internationally condemned for their campaign of killings, torture and kidnappings.

Prachanda, whose real name is Pushpa Kamal Dahal, was reported to have met with former President Carter, who monitored the elections, to request his help in having the terrorist designation removed from his organization.

Throughout Monday, a parade of dignitaries from the United Nations, European Union, India and other countries called on the Maoist leader to congratulate him on the election results.

The Maoists want to establish a presidential system in Nepal, with Prachanda as president. But without a majority in the new assembly, they may not achieve that goal.

The party has already moderated its hard-line communist rhetoric of old. It no longer supports nationalization of Nepal’s industries and accepts the idea of foreign investment.

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henry.chu@latimes.com

Special correspondent Bikas Rauniar in Katmandu contributed to this report.