LEADERS IN CRISIS

He was always an unlikely politician, a retiring, donnish economist more comfortable with the solitude of private study than the scrum of Indian public life. Becoming leader of the world’s largest democracy, a land of 1.1 billion people, happened more by accident than design.

Whether Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will keep the job he has held for four years is increasingly in doubt as he -- and the rest of India -- grapple with the fallout from the brazen terrorist attack on Mumbai last month that left more than 170 dead.

Singh, 76, is now under tremendous pressure from voters who have lost faith in his government’s ability to protect them and from opposition politicians ready to pounce. The ruling coalition led by Singh’s Congress Party has found itself on the defensive, forced to admit to security lapses that failed to prevent or aggravated the Mumbai attacks and groping for the best approach to deal with archrival Pakistan, where India believes the plot was hatched.

A general election is due by May, and a nasty political battle is already shaping up against a backdrop of national outrage over the 60 hours of chaos and bloodshed that a stunned nation watched unfold in India’s city of dreams.

“This coalition and party are fighting for their political lives,” said Mahesh Rangarajan, an independent political analyst. “There is a mood of widespread public anger.”

How Singh, India’s first Sikh prime minister, decides to confront Pakistan will be closely watched in coming days. His government is under heavy pressure to take strong action against Islamabad, not just from the general public but from the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, a Hindu nationalist party often accused of whipping up anti-Muslim sentiment. At the same time, the U.S. and other countries are counseling restraint.

Opponents will be keen to seize on any sign of personal or policy weakness. Many ridicule Singh as not his own man, but a puppet of the Congress Party leader, Sonia Gandhi, the most powerful woman in India. It was the Italian-born Gandhi who, after elections in 2004, decided not to assume the premiership herself and hand-picked Singh, the chief architect of India’s market-oriented economic reforms, for the job.

Until now, India’s rocketing growth of recent years had been Singh’s trump card. But that argument has less force now that economic growth is slowing amid the worldwide financial crisis and global recession.

The government was also weakened by a bruising, albeit successful, fight in parliament in support of a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with the U.S.

Since the attacks in Mumbai, Singh has struggled to project an aura of a confident, empathetic leader in touch with his people and ready to make tough decisions.

Never famous for his oratorical skills, Singh has delivered speeches expressing sadness and anger over what happened with the same affect and tone he uses to explain fiscal policy. In his trademark sky-blue turban and thick-rimmed spectacles, he exudes a decidedly professorial air.

“It is very important in a moment like this to convey a sense of reassurance to citizens. That hasn’t happened here,” Rangarajan said. “He’s not a natural in communication. . . . In a democracy, you have to communicate.”

Results of elections in several states, conducted since the Mumbai attacks, are due today and should offer an indication of how Singh and the Congress Party are faring.

Analysts had already downgraded his political future by the time the armed gunmen came ashore on Mumbai’s coastline Nov. 26. Now observers are wondering whether Singh and his government will be added to the list of those left mortally wounded in the rampage that followed.

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henry.chu@latimes.com