Two distinct visions for Spain

Spain buried its latest victim of political violence Saturday, then prepared to vote today in national elections that confront two distinct visions of the country.

Perhaps more polarized than at any time in its recent history, the Spanish public has a stark choice. A recent downturn in Spain’s once-booming economy, and worries about an enormous influx of immigrants, are issues that have dominated the campaign.

Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero and the Socialist Workers Party have used his four-year term to promote some of the most liberal social reforms in Europe. They pushed a more independent foreign policy after years of pro-U.S. government, moved to limit the influence of the Roman Catholic Church and expanded the rolls of immigrant labor.

The Socialists’ rival, in what has been a bitter, hard-fought campaign, is the right-wing Popular Party led by Mariano Rajoy. Backed by the church, Rajoy and his party advocate reversing or slowing many of the Socialists’ reforms, restricting immigration and curtailing autonomy for Spain’s restive regions.

Polls, which by law were suspended last week, have given the Socialists a slight edge, but much depends on voter turnout. If 70% or more of Spain’s 35 million eligible voters cast ballots, which is possible, the Socialists will probably win, said Julian Santamaria, a political scientist and prominent pollster.

But, he added, the margin of victory “may be an insufficient advantage [for the winner] to be able to govern.”

The Socialists’ campaign has focused on telling voters that a Popular victory would turn the clock back on reforms and return Spain to a reactionary past. “It is not a convincing argument, but it is an emotional one, and the polarization is giving left-wing voters extra reason to bother to turn out to vote,” said Charles Powell, history professor at Madrid’s San Pablo-CEU University.

The Popular Party’s followers, meanwhile, have been mobilized for months because of their dismay over the direction of the country.

The day before the election was filled with talk of the assassination Friday of a Socialist Workers Party activist, Isaias Carrasco, in the Basque town of Mondragon. Authorities blamed the attack on the Basque separatist organization ETA, which canceled a truce with the government last year.

Some Spaniards suggested that militants were attempting to interfere in the voting process just as the electorate was shaken four years ago when Islamic militants bombed commuter trains three days before elections, killing 191 people.

Experts said the Basque Country slaying could encourage more people to vote than would have normally, but it was not likely to substantially change party support. Similarly, four years ago, the train bombings helped drive turnout, but did not alter the way most people voted.

The 2004 election gave an upset victory to Zapatero.

“Like four years ago, [our] date at the voting booth comes stained with blood, through a vile act of terrorism,” the leading left-leaning daily El Pais said Saturday in a front-page editorial.

But the right-wing ABC newspaper used the slaying to scold Zapatero for negotiating (unsuccessfully) with ETA. “The death of Isaias Carrasco, like so many others assassinated by ETA, demands that no one ever again fall for the terrorists’ tricks with their truces,” the paper said.

At Carrasco’s funeral in the town of Mondragon, his daughter Sandra, speaking in a strong voice and surrounded by hundreds of people, encouraged everyone to vote.

“Go out massively,” she said, “so we can tell the terrorists that we will not take a single step backward.”

Although the Carrasco attack was blamed on ETA, law enforcement authorities were also concerned about possible violence by Islamic extremists. Spanish authorities in January arrested 14 suspected Islamic militants, most from Pakistan, in Barcelona, and said they were planning another attack on the public transportation system. Although there have been questions since over whether a plot was in fact in the works, the arrests raised an alarm. Security was tightened throughout the country ahead of today’s vote.

The attitude at sidewalk cafes and in parks in a sunny, warm Madrid on Saturday was primarily one of resignation and determination. Several people said that Spaniards had learned to live with the threat of terrorism, but they won’t be intimidated.

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wilkinson@latimes.com