California voters: Props on their proposition votes

Props to California voters. They are smarter than most pundits and political consultants (and sometimes editorial pages) give them credit for being, as evidenced by two failed attempts to buy their votes in Tuesday’s election.

The conventional political wisdom suggested that Propositions 16 and 17 would be tough to beat, given that their corporate backers — Northern California utility Pacific Gas & Electric and Mercury Insurance, respectively — poured buckets of money into deeply misleading ad campaigns. Opponents, meanwhile, raised barely enough to print lawn signs. Yet both measures lost by a margin of more than 4 percentage points.

Does this mean that voters are getting their information from someplace other than TV commercials? Or that money can’t buy elections? Or that there is a new anti-corporate mood riling the electorate, to go with the anti-incumbent sentiment that is sweeping politicians out of power across the country?

Maybe, but we’re not going to say so. We’ve seen enough puzzling election results to know that what holds true in one contest probably will be contradicted by the next one. Yet there are some truisms that help explain Tuesday’s results, such as the one that suggests money is far less effective in passing initiatives than in defeating them. Voters are naturally skeptical of ballot measures, especially complex ones on such arcane topics as public electricity ventures (Proposition 16) and auto insurance discounts (Proposition 17). Ad campaigns can fuel that skepticism to make voters defeat even beneficial initiatives, but ads urging a yes vote are given more scrutiny, especially when they’re funded by a single source.

Only 24.8% of California voters cast a ballot, and such low-turnout elections tend to attract older, better-informed voters — the population least likely to be swayed by misleading campaign ads. And early polling suggested that Proposition 16, in particular, was attracting little support. PG&E doubtless thought it could overcome that initial distaste by pouring $46 million into the campaign, but even the shiniest paint job can’t make a Yugo look like a Bentley.

Those who follow politics tend to develop a jaundiced view of the initiative process, but Tuesday’s results should make anybody interested in good government a little less cynical.