Silence of the Wolves, and Their Ilk, in Swing States

In one of his last television commercials before the election, President Bush waxed eloquent and emotional on the sacrifices of the U.S. military and his zeal to defend the country. In another, wolves lurked in a forest -- symbolizing terrorists on the loose -- as a narrator denounced Sen. John F. Kerry for proposing to cut funding for spy agencies.

New data released Monday on airtime purchased for campaign advertisements show which spot Bush favored for his closing pitch.

The president spent about $53,000 one day late last week to air the uplifting pro-Bush ad called “Whatever it Takes,” an independent report for The Times found. He spent about $758,000 that same day to air the anti-Kerry ad called “Wolves.”

For his part, the Democratic challenger sought to tailor his final advertising to the various political rhythms of the battleground states.

Kerry had 34 different spots on the air at one point last week -- compared with Bush’s nine -- and the themes in many of them matched up with a given state: Wisconsin jobs, Pennsylvania jobs, a closed Ohio factory, a New Mexico governor’s testimonial, a Nevada nuclear waste dump. In each case, Kerry found a local angle to attack Bush.

With the two major parties and a plethora of outside groups also pouring money into the race, spending for the 2004 presidential ad wars crested last week and continued to set records with each passing day.

The final week’s television frenzy put an exclamation point on a stunning year for political ads in which viewers in battleground states were barraged with more than 675,000 commercials.

Kerry and pro-Democratic sources spent more than $31 million on cable TV and local broadcasts in the top 100 markets for the week that ended midnight Saturday, according to the report for The Times, compiled by TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group. In all, these players spent more than $357 million since the general election campaign began March 3.

By comparison, Bush and his allies spent more than $29 million on TV last week and about $229 million for the year.

The combined spending of more than $580 million dwarfs what CMAG tracked four years ago. Presidential television ad spending in 2000 totaled about $200 million. Those totals don’t include tens of millions of dollars spent on radio and newspaper ads and TV time in smaller broadcast markets.

The final ad burst showed anew the contrasting strategies of Bush and Kerry.

The president believes “what’s good for Tampa is good for Toledo,” said Evan Tracey, CMAG’s chief operating officer. Bush has therefore stuck with a consistent message whether he is beaming ads to Florida or to Ohio, even though the former is in better economic shape than the latter.

“The Kerry approach,” Tracey said, “I have now figured out: It is the Tip O’Neill, all-politics-is-local approach.” O’Neill, a Democratic speaker of the House in the 1970s and ‘80s, used that dictum to help his party maintain power for many years.

Bush ad strategist Mark McKinnon, traveling with the president in Milwaukee, said the Republican campaign invested heavily in the 30-second “Wolves” spot because “it reminds voters what the race was about.”

He said that Bush put more money into the 60-second “Whatever it Takes” toward the end of last week. However, CMAG data show Bush spent $375,000 last week on the longer spot and $5.4 million on the shorter, hard-hitting spot.

McKinnon agreed with Tracey’s assessment of Bush’s strategy, saying the ad campaign profited from a “consistent message and a resilient theme.”

Mike Donilon, a Kerry ad strategist, told reporters late last week that the Democrat benefited from Bush’s decision to go on the attack in March. “The president made a mistake in pursuing essentially and exclusively a negative campaign,” Donilon said.

Because Kerry’s ads were less harsh than Bush’s, Donilon argued, the Democratic challenger often was able to look directly into the camera in his spots to create the sense of a conversation with voters. Bush rarely did so.

Donilon added that Kerry benefited from a new federal law requiring candidates to vouch for their ads. The disclaimers, he said, became a recognizable cue for couch potatoes who had otherwise grown numb to the cacophony of political ads. Hearing a candidate’s voice, these TV viewers would pay closer attention, Donilon said. “It’s become a way for voters to get a handle on things.”

TV viewers certainly needed some guidance.

The CMAG report found that voters in key states had been bombarded this year. Hundreds of ads -- from an astounding 50 separate sponsors on the Democratic side and another 19 on the Republican side -- have aired 675,000 times on cable and in top markets.

About one-twelfth of those airings, or 57,000, occurred just last week -- a measure of the intensity of the final days of the TV blitz. Kerry and the Democratic Party spent about $23 million for the week; Bush and the Republican Party about $16 million. Kerry took his ads down in August and early September to save money for the final, frantic push. Millions of dollars also poured into the Democratic National Committee for independent expenditures to help the Democratic nominee.

Aside from Kerry and the Democratic Party, key anti-Bush or pro-Democratic players in the final week were American Family Voices, spending $360,000; the League of Conservation Voters ($1.6 million); MoveOn.org ($1.9 million); the New Democrat Network ($340,000); Service Employees International Union ($314,000); Stronger America Now ($480,000); and The Media Fund ($2.1 million). But a welter of other, little-known groups emerged to help Kerry with smaller amounts of spending in key states, with names such as There is a Difference, This Vote Counts and TruthandHope.org.

On the pro-Bush and anti-Kerry side, major players last week were the National Rifle Assn., which spent $260,000; Progress for America Voter Fund ($8 million); the Florida Republican Party ($185,000); and Swift Vets and POWs for Truth ($3.7 million).

Significantly, Kerry and the DNC appeared to be spending somewhat more than their foes in the final week on ads in key states. In Florida, the challenger and the Democratic Party spent about $6.5 million on ads for the week that ended at midnight Saturday. Bush and the RNC spent about $4.7 million in that state, with 27 electoral votes at stake.

In Ohio, with 20 electoral votes, Kerry and the DNC spent about $4 million; Bush and the RNC, about $3.2 million. In Pennsylvania, with 21 electoral votes, the challenger and his party spent about $3.6 million; the incumbent and the GOP, $2.2 million.

And in Wisconsin, with 10 electoral votes, the total spending was about $1.3 million for Kerry and the DNC, $1 million for Bush and the RNC.

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

The ad wars

President Bush, Sen. John F. Kerry and the major parties and interest groups shattered spending records this year in the presidential campaign. Here are totals for what the major players spent this year to advertise on cable television and local TV broadcasts in the top 100 markets.

Spending in millions

Bush/Republican National Committee

Overall: $183

In final week: $11

RNC independent expenditures

Overall: $10

In final week: $5

Pro-Bush outside groups

Overall: $36

In final week: $13

Kerry/Democratic National Committee

Overall: $161

In final week: $13

DNC independent expenditures

Overall: $99

In final week: $10

Pro-Kerry outside groups

Overall: $98

In final week: $8

Overall figures were for spending starting March 3, all figures as of Saturday

Source: TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group

Graphics reporting by Nick Anderson

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Times staff writer Maura Reynolds in Milwaukee contributed to this report.