GOP’s Prop. 187 Wounds Healing, But Dems Are Bleeding

It’s an accepted truth -- at least it keeps getting reported -- that Proposition 187 was an unmitigated disaster for the Republican Party in California and a boon for Democrats.

When Republican Gov. Pete Wilson aggressively pushed for the anti-illegal immigration initiative in 1994, it set back the GOP at least a generation. And it’s conceivable the party will never recover. Or so they say.

But there’s something puzzling about this: It’s the Democratic Party, not the GOP, that has been losing the biggest share of voter registration.

Young voters, especially, are declaring a pox on both parties and registering as independents -- or “declined to state,” as it’s officially called. This is particularly true of Latinos.

Meanwhile, Wilson was reelected, then succeeded by a Democrat, who ultimately was recalled and replaced by another Republican.

Back in 1994, Wilson’s anti-illegal immigration TV ads -- “They keep coming!” -- jarred many Latinos into becoming citizens and registering to vote, mostly as Democrats.

Since then, the number of California Latinos registered to vote has doubled to 3 million, according to Jess Cervantes Jr., who owns a voter data company.

But among young Latinos, he says, “the Democratic party is losing.... Latinos are not finding any party that’s embracing their concerns.”

Sam Rodriguez, political director of the state Democratic Party, acknowledges that “12 years after Prop. 187, replaying the story without the [campaign] noise factor is becoming more and more challenging.

“My generation, when my grandfather and father and uncle would sit around the kitchen table and talk about why they were Democrats, that’s essentially over. I have relatives who are ‘declined to state.’ ”

All this came to mind recently during the pro-immigrant marches and boycotts.

So far, the impressive outpourings have not resulted in higher Latino voter registrations, according to Robert Aguinaga, research director for the William C. Velasquez Institute, which studies Latino participation in elections.

“We haven’t seen the fruits of labor yet that we were expecting,” he says. “It’ll probably come in a few months.”

For now, here are some data to chew on:

* Since 1994, the Democrats’ slice of voter registration has fallen from 48.9% to 42.7%, according to the secretary of state. Republicans also have lost, but much less, dropping from 37.1% to 34.6%.

The big gainer has been declined to state, leaping from 10.3% to 18.3%.

* Over the past 26 years, the trend has been even more precipitous for Democrats. In 1980, they amounted to 53% of the California electorate, roughly 10 points higher than today. Republicans were about the same then as today.

* Four in 10 voters who are age 18 to 24 are registered as independents or aligned with a third party, according to the Public Policy Institute of California. In Los Angeles County, it’s 36.3%, Cervantes says.

* Illustrating the increasing clout of Latino voters in L.A. County, they amount to 35% of registered voters under 25, Cervantes adds.

* Statewide, independent registration among all Latinos is higher than for whites, reports the policy institute. While 55% of Latinos are Democrats, 22% are independents.

The profile of an independent voter, the institute says, is disproportionately male, under 35, a college graduate, Bay Area resident and moderate.

An independent just isn’t a Democrat by another name, the institute has found. Independents tend to be environmentalist and socially moderate but fiscally conservative.

As for Latino voters, the institute says, they “defy simple political labels. [They’re] about as likely to say they are conservative as liberal, and 30% say they are moderate.”

I phoned some young independents who had responded to a Times poll and asked why they had registered declined to state.

“I don’t fully agree with what Republicans do [or] what Democrats do,” said Richard Medina, 22, a Van Nuys locksmith. “I don’t like being labeled.”

Heather Wiencko, 25, a Caltech grad student: “I haven’t found a party that engenders great loyalty.”

Maria Stats, 24, a Vallejo mother: “I like options. I don’t like to be pigeon-holed. Even though I’m probably more left than right, if Republicans come up with an idea, it doesn’t mean it’s automatically wrong.”

And I called some experts.

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, 38, considered a rising Democratic star: “It’s not that people don’t like Democratic ideas. They don’t know what the Democratic ideas are. They think Democrats are too weak to lead. People are looking for strength, character, boldness.”

Barbara O’Connor, director of the Institute for the Study of Politics and Media at Cal State Sacramento: “[Students] really think that politicians of either stripe don’t represent them well, and the parties are to blame. When you unwind that, they babble on about how politics is money-related and ‘they treat us like we’re stupid.’ ”

Political consultant Ray McNally: “Increasingly, you see the parties taken over by the ideologues. Young people today have seen the worst of both sides.”

Antonio Gonzalez, president of the Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project: “It’s been a 20-year pattern of drip, drip, drip for Democrats. It changed with 187, then went back to normal. There’s very little party activism. People aren’t engaged. Political parties used to exist in neighborhoods.”

Mark Baldassare, pollster for the policy institute: “Many people who used to define themselves as Democrat are not now. It’s a trend that should worry Democrats.”

Right here in this big blue state, where the tale of Republicans being ravaged by Prop. 187 may be an urban myth. In truth, neither party is producing heroes or new voters.

*

George Skelton writes Monday and Thursday. Reach him at george.skelton@latimes.com.