Presidential Election Tide Streams Out of Tampa Bay

Al Gore ended his presidential race in this gleaming Gulf Coast city, sipping strong Cuban coffee with running mate Joe Lieberman. President Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry have made repeated campaign stops here, observing the axiom: As go Tampa Bay voters, so goes Florida.

A recent study showed that only three cities nationwide had been more barraged with presidential TV ads than Tampa. Despite the attention, the region’s voters are still very much divided over who they want for president.

“The entire country is divided over its choice for president this year,” said Harry Coe, 33, a lawyer and registered Democrat. “And Tampa Bay represents that ambivalence.”

Indeed, interviews with dozens of Tampa area voters suggested they were troubled over the Iraq war -- and the number of U.S. soldiers killed there -- but differed on which candidate had the best plan to end the conflict.

Some wonder if Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney are telling the truth about the war or the U.S. economy, while others question whether Kerry and his running mate, Sen. John Edwards, possess the experience and decisiveness to lead the world’s most powerful nation.

Coe said he might vote for a Republican president for the first time in his life.

He’s convinced that Kerry, if elected, would raise taxes on small-business owners like himself and leave the nation vulnerable to another terrorist attack. And while he called Bush “a flawed man and a flawed candidate,” he said the president had at least established a track record in leading the nation.

Presidential candidates looking for a glimpse into the mind-set of the nation’s fourth-most populous state have long targeted the bellwether Tampa Bay community, which closely tracks Florida in demographic and political shifts -- from minority representation and voter turnout to average household income.

A recent poll of Tampa Bay area voters, taken before the second presidential debate on Oct. 8, gave Bush a 5% lead over Kerry, with a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

The Tampa results were part of a statewide Mason-Dixon Research poll of 625 likely voters in which Bush held a 4% lead statewide. Two other new Florida polls found the race a tossup.

Many call the 10-county Tampa Bay area -- which encompasses St. Petersburg, Clearwater and Sarasota -- a diverse crossroads to the new and old Florida, with city neighborhoods, suburban developments and farms sitting within miles of each other.

“The old citrus fields aren’t far from new cities with large minority populations. You can get in your car, drive 20 miles and feel like you’ve seen America,” said Susan MacManus, a political scientist at the University of South Florida at Tampa and author of “Florida’s Politics: Ten Media Markets, One Powerful State.”

The Tampa Bay area is also home to a quarter of Florida’s registered voters. Since 1980, the presidential candidate who garnered the most votes here has won the battleground state that proved crucial in the 2000 election.

Not only have Tampa Bay voters chosen the winner in the last six presidential races and five of the last seven Florida gubernatorial contests, the region routinely comes within a few percentage points of how the Sunshine State votes as a whole.

“They’ve picked everyone from presidents and senators to governors,” said pollster Brad Coker. “And it’s not just picking the winner; it’s nailing the margin of victory to boot.”

Tampa Bay voters also traditionally turn out for presidential elections in greater percentages than the rest of Florida. It’s no surprise, then, that in this election they are being deluged with ads -- 1,702 television spots from Bush, Kerry and the two major parties just last week.

Restaurant worker June Worrell has always known she was going to vote, she just didn’t know for whom -- until after the third debate Wednesday. Now she’s in the Bush camp.

“The president just sounded more convincing,” she said.

Worrell said her mind was made up not so much by what Bush said at the debate in Tempe, Ariz., but by what Kerry said. She thought his comments about Cheney’s daughter Mary being a lesbian were inappropriate.

“I don’t like prejudiced people or dirty politics,” she said.

William Patterson Jr. said it was Cheney’s comments following the debate -- in which he said Kerry was “out of line” for mentioning his daughter -- that were inappropriate.

“All these people have been talking about each other’s families throughout this entire election,” Patterson said.

“And here’s an administration that has done absolutely nothing for gays in America. Dick Cheney was too embarrassed to have his daughter stand by his side at the Republican convention. They’re trying to make political hay out of nothing. That’s the cheap shot.”

Patterson said Bush should be booted from office for running up the federal budget deficit and for the way he led the nation to war without just cause.

“We need a change,” said the Tampa native who, with his son Sharone, runs an iron-works shop.

From a cluttered work table, Patterson motioned to his son, who removed his welding mask. “This Iraq situation has become another Vietnam,” the elder Patterson said. “If Bush thinks he’s going to start an American-style democracy in a Muslim country, he’s got another thing coming.”

The debates confirmed his opinion about both candidates.

“Bush dodged questions about something that’s important to many middle-class Americans: jobs,” he said. “Even when he was asked directly about jobs, he started talking about education. He doesn’t have a record to stand on.”

Not far away, Fred C. Barksdale sat at a crowded Cuban restaurant with his buddies talking presidential politics. He’s an avid Bush supporter.

“George W. Bush is a straight shooter -- he doesn’t change his position every day like the other guy,” said the 80-year-old retired lawyer, his two friends nodding in agreement.

Barksdale said watching the third debate made him even more comfortable with the president. “He finally started talking about his record, which is something I’ve been waiting for all along,” he said.

As for Kerry, “Boy, he sure is a smooth operator,” Barksdale said.

“The last night I counted 11 times him talking about this plan and that plan. Help is always on the way. Well, if he was so determined to take a stand on all these issues, why didn’t he do so in all his years in the Senate?”

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The Florida key

The 10-county Tampa Bay area is a bellwether of Florida presidential sentiment, having voted with the winner in the last six elections. HereÕs how it compares to the rest of the state and the United States.

Tampa* Population: 2.5 million Median age: 39.8 Median income: $39,286 White: 74% Latino: 12% Black: 11% Asian: 2% Other: 1% ** Florida Population: 16.6 million Median age: 39.1 Median income: $39,871 White: 63% Latino: 19% Black: 15% Asian: 2% Other: 1% ** United States Population: 283 million Median age: 36 Median income: $43,564 White: 68% Latino: 14% Black: 12% Asian: 4% Other: 2%

* Includes St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Tampa metropolitan statistical area Note: Percentages rounded; ÒotherÓ catergory includes Native Americans

Source: U.S. Census 2003