Romney poised to win big where he lost four years ago

Who says you can’t win for losing?

As persnickety as they may seem and for all they love to mock the state to the south as Taxachusetts, or some other sneering epithet, New Hampshirites have a tendency to vote for the guy (and they’ve been all guys) next door.

As Paul West points out, today’s New Hampshire Republican primary amounts to a home game for Mitt Romney, the prohibitive front-runner and a former governor of Tax, er, Massachusetts. Barring a for-the-ages upset, Romney should win the primary -- handily -- and join a list of favorite sons that includes Henry Cabot Lodge, Michael Dukakis, Paul Tsongas and John F. Kerry.

So if a Romney victory is seemingly inevitable, why the big deal? A win here hasn’t always redounded to the benefit of a next-door neighbor. In 1992, for instance, Bill Clinton finished a not-terribly close second to Tsongas, but declared himself the “comeback kid” and emerged from the womanizing-draft-dodging purgatory that nearly sank his campaign. Why? Because everyone knew Tsongas was going to win, so the fight was for second place.

The dynamic is the same today, with former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, Jr., Texas Rep. Ron Paul, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, the Iowa runner-up, all vying for second.

The difference is that Romney lost four years ago, finishing second behind the eventual nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain. Because he lost the last time, the thinking goes, a win for Romney would mean something this time.

He also has his rivals, chief among them Huntsman, who has made an all-or-nothing bet on New Hampshire, to thank for making the primary seem consequential. You can’t win if no one competes against you; that was the case in 1992 when Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin ran for president. The rest of the field ceded the state and the caucuses were virtually ignored. (The big story that day was prizefighter Mike Tyson’s rape conviction.) So a win is a win is a win for Romney -- unless it’s not.

That gets into the great expectations game, which has its own quirky set of rules.

mark.barabak@latimes.com