Crunch Time in Recall Race

Arnold Schwarzenegger appeared to pick up momentum Sunday in his drive to unseat Gov. Gray Davis, with a new poll showing his candidacy on the ascent, and the campaign director for state Sen. Tom McClintock (R-Thousand Oaks) all but conceding that the actor and fellow Republican was likely to win.

With just over a week left until California’s first gubernatorial recall election, candidates adjusted their strategies to account for the new dynamics of a race that increasingly is becoming a showdown between Schwarzenegger and Davis.

Left-leaning independent candidate Arianna Huffington said she is reconsidering her role in the race, although she did not say she would drop out. Green Party candidate Peter Camejo said he is staying put, but will understand if supporters vote for Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante in order to stave off a Republican victory. Bustamante, for his part, tried to mend fences with Huffington, whom he had belittled in a debate last week, and expressed concern that Davis has not endorsed his candidacy.

With the political jockeying as a backdrop, Schwarzenegger took his campaign to the air, barnstorming through three small cities in less than five hours as he and his aides sounded increasingly confident of victory. “I am the kind of governor ... ,” Schwarzenegger told a crowd of 1,500 in an airport hangar in Santa Maria, before correcting himself, “I will be the kind of governor....”

Schwarzenegger’s appearances were larded with some of the most ferocious language of the campaign. “This is now hand-to-hand combat,” he declared at one appearance in Redding, wagging his right index finger at the crowd. “We are not in the trenches. This is war.”

There were no significant policy shifts evident in any of the campaigns Sunday, as the candidates hammered at familiar messages, sometimes with newly honed zeal. Davis, meanwhile, remained closeted in Los Angeles, conferring with aides and effectively yielding the campaign day to the candidates who seek to succeed him.

A new CNN-USA Today poll presented bleak numbers for the Democratic incumbent. The poll, which is conducted by Gallup, showed the recall succeeding 63% to 35%, and Schwarzenegger leading among the replacement candidates with 40% of the vote to 25% for Bustamante and 18% for McClintock.

That is a far wider margin for the recall, and far higher numbers for Schwarzenegger, than other recent polls have shown. A previous CNN-USA Today poll also had the recall leading by a higher margin than other polls.

Internal polls from some of the candidates’ campaigns have shown a similar shift, but still show a much tighter race.

(The most recent Times poll, conducted three weeks ago, showed the recall to be a tossup, with Bustamante narrowly leading Schwarzenegger among the potential replacement candidates. A new Times poll is due out this week.)

The CNN-USA Today poll, conducted among 1,007 Californians between Thursday and Saturday, assumed a low turnout of 51% -- lower than election officials expect -- in determining which were the most likely voters. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, according to the pollsters.

The poll caught the McClintock campaign flat-footed, and campaign director John Feliz all but conceded that Schwarzenegger may be too far ahead to catch. In fact, he said that private polls -- though not one by McClintock’s campaign -- had shown Schwarzenegger moving up after the candidates debate Wednesday, with Bustamante falling back and McClintock receiving a slight immediate uptick, then stabilizing.

“That’s what we hear,” Feliz said. “Arnold is moving and Tom has settled down, but Tom’s not dropping. I still contend when this is done, Tom will beat Bustamante. He’ll come in second.

“I think this whole thing about Tom being a spoiler has created the movement for Arnold. The voters are taking their second choice; Tom’s their first choice.”

McClintock himself was far more optimistic, sketching a scenario in which the dynamics of the race turned in his favor.

“By the time Davis and Schwarzenegger stop shooting at each other a lot can change,” he said in an interview during a break at a candidates forum in Sacramento. “By the time all of the shooting is over, we could very well be the last candidate standing.”

Still, Schwarzenegger has emerged in the last week as the popular choice within the Republican Party, and appeared likely to become the party’s official choice today. The board of directors of the state GOP was planning to meet in Burbank to decide whether to issue an endorsement. Party leaders declined to endorse any candidate at the state party convention earlier this month.

The Sacramento candidates forum, hosted by the Asian Pacific Islander American Political Assn., drew four hopefuls -- Bustamante, Camejo, Huffington and McClintock -- each of whom delivered 15-minute speeches and answered questions. Before and after, they squeezed in interviews with reporters.

Bustamante emphasized the importance of his candidacy as a backup in case the recall succeeds, underscoring Democratic anxiety about the tight race. The lieutenant governor defied Davis’ pleas that no Democrat join the race to replace him, and has since sought in vain to get the governor’s support for his no-on-recall, yes-on-Bustamante campaign.

“We had hoped by the time we had got to the end that we would be able unify the family, the Democratic family,” Bustamante said. “We’re still hopeful that the governor will see that we’re viable and people should clearly vote for us.”

He said he believes that the race will be determined by the few remaining undecided voters who will make up their minds in the last few days before the election. He also acknowledged that his candidacy could be hurt by the presence on the ballot of Camejo and Huffington, who are peeling away some liberal votes.

“They’re clearly going to have some impact,” Bustamante said. “Don’t know exactly to what extent. We’ve seen polls that they’re going to be somewhere in the 4- to 8-[point] range, and of course, every percentage point is going to be very important.”

Camejo acknowledged that some of his supporters will feel compelled to support Bustamante in order to keep Schwarzenegger from winning. But he said that every voter has to make the decision individually.

“This is a decision the voters make, not the party,” he said. “There will be voters who want to vote for me and instead will vote for Cruz. I understand that. I’m not angry at them.”

Huffington voiced concern about Schwarzenegger gaining ground in the polls, and said that might affect her role in the race.

“I’ve said from the beginning that it’s very important as we’re coming close to the race to look at who has the greatest chance to be governor,” Huffington said. “And if it’s going to be Arnold Schwarzenegger, that’s not good news for the state. So this is absolutely something I’m looking at.”

Huffington said she is not planning on throwing her support to another candidate, but added, “I’m definitely considering a lot of things.”

During the forum, Huffington’s calls for public financing of campaigns drew support from Bustamante, whom she has criticized for accepting millions of dollars in funding from casino-owning Indian tribes. The two clashed in last week’s debates, and Bustamante had angered her with what she perceived as a condescending attitude.

“Would you accept my endorsement of your proposal, and would you allow me to help you work on this proposal to make sure that we do have publicly financed campaigns in California?” Bustamante said Sunday.

“Why, Cruz, that’s wonderful news,” Huffington said with a sly smile. “I would obviously be delighted to have your endorsement of the initiative. As you know,” she added, laughing, “I believe in conversions and I believe in redemption.”

During his busiest day of the campaign so far, Schwarzenegger addressed rallies at airports in Santa Maria, Monterey and Redding. Such frantic traveling is unusual for Schwarzenegger, whose campaign appearances have focused on Southern California and the larger cities of Sacramento, San Diego, San Jose and Fresno.

In Redding, where a crowd of more than 1,000 was warmed up by a Marine veteran of the Iraq war and a young singer doing a soft-rock version of the “Battle Hymn of the Republic,” Schwarzenegger gave easily his fiercest speech of the campaign.

He savaged Davis, saying the governor “has terminated hope, he has terminated opportunity, he has terminated jobs, he has terminated education, and now it’s time to terminate him.”

In his speeches, Schwarzenegger did not mention Bustamante or McClintock, training his ire on Davis.

“Desperate Davis is going to do all kinds of tricks,” Schwarzenegger said in Santa Maria. “He’s going to start a dirty campaign now.” But, he added, “I have faith in the California people. I trust the California people.”

It was actually Schwarzenegger who first attacked Davis in campaigns ads, despite a promise earlier not to wage a negative campaign. Davis, however, has begun to target Schwarzenegger in his anti-recall ads, which seek to persuade Democrats that they cannot risk turning the state over to a Republican governor. Political analysts have long warned that Davis has to tread lightly because many voters have been turned off by his reputation as a ruthless campaigner.

Officials of the anti-recall campaign unveiled a 15-second television ad Sunday that asks ominously: “Have questions about Arnold Schwarzenegger? So do a lot of people. He ducks tough questions. Didn’t vote in 13 of the last 21 elections. And now he refuses to debate the governor he’s trying to replace.”

The ad is expected to begin airing statewide today. As it became apparent last week that Schwarzenegger was the front-runner and Davis’ anti-recall campaign was in trouble, the governor challenged the actor to a debate. Schwarzenegger did not accept.

“This is boiling down to a very direct choice between retaining the governor or choosing Schwarzenegger as the alternative,” said Larry Grisolano, manager of the anti-recall campaign. “We’re telling people what the consequences of that choice are.”

With about three-quarters of Democrats opposed to the recall, Democratic Party consultant Bob Mulholland called it “absolutely critical” for the recall opponents to win over at least another 10% of the rank and file in the next eight days.

He said efforts to persuade Democrats to go to the polls Oct. 7 and vote no on the recall will pick up substantially this week, when several million voters will be barraged by mail and phone calls. In addition, prominent Democratic officials such as New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson will be trooping through the state to reinforce the message.

“Every day in this state, there will be massive campaign activity,” Mulholland said. “A person will read it in the papers, see it on the news, get a piece of mail, a phone call and in many cases, a knock on the door.”

Davis spent Sunday in Los Angeles, keeping a low profile. Campaign press secretary Gabriel Sanchez said Davis spent part of the day “conferring with advisors on campaign matters and going over bills with his legislative aides.”

Also Sunday, several of the state’s largest newspapers ran editorials with their recommendations for the election. The Times, Sacramento Bee and San Jose Mercury-News all urged “no” votes on the recall and gave no recommendation for a replacement candidate, saying none measured up. The Oakland Tribune recommended a “no” vote on the recall, but a vote for Schwarzenegger on the second part of the ballot.

The San Diego Union-Tribune urged a “yes” vote on the recall, but did not include its recommendation for a replacement. The Union-Tribune flatly declared Davis “a failed governor.”

But the newspapers that urged voters to retain him were hardly more flattering. The Oakland Tribune said Davis should be allowed to remain governor because he “has neither broken the law nor done anything immoral in office that could pass for malfeasance.”

The Bee, which has historically supported Democratic candidates for governor, was even sharper, saying Californians “have come to understand that the candidate who in 1998 offered ‘experience that money can’t buy’ has proved to be a governor who can at least be occasionally rented.”

The paper said, however, that voters knew that when they reelected Davis in November. Moreover, it said none of the replacement candidates would be a “trade-up for California.”

*

Times staff writers Joe Matthews, Scott Glover and Gregg Jones contributed to this report.