In Final Days, Kerry TV Ads Flood Airwaves in Ohio, Florida

Four years ago, in the final weeks before the presidential election, cash-strapped Democrats faced an excruciating tactical choice for their advertising dollars: Ohio or Florida? They chose the latter, and lost both.

Now, Democratic nominee John F. Kerry is on the television airwaves in full force in both crucial states, according to data from Republican and Democratic sources and an independent advertising monitor.

Kerry’s spots, on average, are getting seen by more TV viewers in Ohio and Florida in the closing days of a tight election than President Bush’s. When ads from parties and outside groups are factored in, the data show, the two sides are roughly at parity in the paid TV combat for the 47 electoral votes in the two states.

That is a significant shift from then-Vice President Al Gore’s financial position in his matchup with Bush 4 years ago. Without the benefit of ads to drive home his closing message, Gore lost to Bush in Ohio by fewer than four percentage points; had he won there, Bush’s Florida victory would not have decided the election.

This year, polls show Kerry and Bush in a tight race in both states. In places such as Tampa, Fla., and Cincinnati, viewers may see about 35 TV spots from each side -- counting candidate, party and outside committees -- in the final week, according to an ad schedule supplied by the Bush campaign.

Should Kerry win the White House, his simultaneous ad push in the two states could be seen as significant.

“It’s huge,” said Evan Tracey, chief operating officer of TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks ads for The Times in the nation’s top 100 markets. “Those are the two linchpin states. At this point, [Kerry and Bush] are at maximum effort.”

The group’s data show that Kerry spent about $3.5 million in Florida on TV ads last week and Bush about $2.8 million. The Democratic National Committee also outspent the Republican National Committee, $2.6 million to $1.5 million.

Ohio showed a similar trend: Kerry spent $2.3 million and Bush $1.9 million, the DNC $1.5 million and the RNC $1.3 million.

Kerry strategist Tad Devine said Wednesday that those figures, which corroborated the Democrats’ ad-buying tally, reflected careful use of the $75 million in public funding that the Massachusetts senator received after his party’s convention in late July.

Kerry spent little on ads in August and the beginning of September -- even as he was under withering attack by Bush and by critics of his Vietnam War record -- so that he would have more money available at the end of the campaign.

Bush received an equal sum after his convention ended Sept. 2.

The parties are adding to the candidates’ spending, as are outside groups. The net result is rough parity. Devine said the major battleground states were seeing an “enormous” number of Democratic ads -- “a big difference from four years ago.”

Devine, then an advisor to Gore, was a key player in the Ohio-versus-Florida ad debate. That year, Gore was outgunned by Republicans financially from start to finish, and his public funding in the fall campaign never seemed to stretch far enough.

Bush strategist Matthew Dowd, looking at this year’s Florida and Ohio spending, agreed that the two sides were evenly matched. He noted that Bush and his allies were outspending Kerry in some markets, but declined further comment.

Kerry has had to make some difficult choices. He has stayed off the Missouri and Arizona airwaves in the final weeks, saving several million dollars, even though polls give him some reason for hope in those Bush-leaning states.

On Wednesday, Bush and Kerry released two closing ads for cable TV. The 60-second Bush spot shows a president resolute against terrorists. “I will never relent in defending America,” Bush says, “whatever it takes.”

Kerry’s spot praises soldiers in Iraq and their families. “As we see the deepening crisis and chaos in Iraq, as we choose a new commander-in-chief and a fresh start,” a narrator says, “we will always support and honor those who serve.”

Experts said it was impossible to predict whether such messages would tip the balance. But they agreed that Kerry’s late-advertising strength was a potential benefit.

“Would you rather be in Gore’s position or Kerry’s position?” asked Joel Rivlin, deputy director of the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project. “All things being equal, you’d rather be where he is than where Gore was four years ago.”