GOP Is Looking for a Walk-Off Home Run

Congress and the White House head into the year’s political and legislative homestretch facing a backlog of divisive issues that will test the ability of Republican leaders to arrest a precipitous slide in their party’s fortunes.

This month is, in essence, the last act of a yearlong drama that has seen the GOP plunge from giddy celebration of its 2004 election gains to a disheartened party beset by ethics problems and internal divisions.

Those divisions pose formidable obstacles to passage of controversial budget, tax and defense policy measures awaiting Congress as it reconvenes from a long Thanksgiving recess. The House returns Tuesday, the Senate a week later.

At stake are signature issues for the GOP: keeping alive key elements of President Bush’s tax cuts, finishing the first effort in years to control fast-growing benefit programs such as Medicaid and student loans, and cracking down on illegal immigration.

The agenda provides Republicans the opportunity to show that their control of Congress and the White House is paying off with action on important national problems. But they also face the risk of bearing the responsibility for a stalemate.

“To go out [at year’s end] without any substantial actions reinforces the notion that Congress has lost its way under our control,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). “To deliver is to show we are capable of governing.”

The challenge for GOP leaders is that the issues left to be resolved widen festering divisions between moderate and conservative Republicans, between the House and the Senate, between Congress and the White House.

House and Senate GOP leaders and top White House aides held a two-day retreat last week on Maryland’s eastern shore to plot legislative strategy. Sources who attended the meeting -- all of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity when discussing it -- said White House Chief of Staff Andrew H. Card Jr. urged Republicans to see their political fates entwined with Bush’s.

One source quoted Card as saying: “We are all in this together. The president recognizes he’s not up for election next year, but that this election is in part about him.”

White House officials also told GOP leaders that they would step up efforts to promote positive economic trends. Bush followed through with that pledge Friday, spotlighting strong job growth reported for November.

Some Republicans have complained that the White House has not done a good job communicating progress on the economy, as demonstrated by polls showing a majority of Americans were pessimistic about it.

For most of Bush’s presidency, Republicans in Congress have looked to him to set their agenda even if his proposals -- such as overhauling Social Security -- posed political risks for them.

But with Bush’s approval ratings in a slump, Republicans are showing more independence. Examples include:

* Senate passage of two defense-related bills that include an amendment by Sen. John McCain to explicitly ban inhumane treatment of military prisoners by U.S. interrogators. The White House had threatened to veto the bills if they included the amendment but, faced with broad congressional support for the ban, has been seeking a compromise with the Arizona Republican.

* Senate adoption of an amendment that would cut funding for a program that encourages health insurers to participate in the new Medicare prescription drug benefit. The White House has threatened to veto the bill if it contains the provision.

The administration has also threatened to veto a tax-cut bill passed by the Senate because it included a new tax on oil company profits.

Perhaps the largest problem facing GOP congressional leaders will be reconciling divisions within their party between fiscal conservatives who want to tighten the reins on federal spending and moderates who worry about further cuts in popular domestic programs, such as aid that helps the poor pay heating bills.

“They are fighting the cruel logic of arithmetic,” said John J. Pitney Jr., a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College. “When some want to add [money] and others want to subtract, the problems multiply and the party divides.”

A GOP priority is for the House and Senate to resolve differences between their two bills to slow the growth of spending on benefits. The House, where fiscal conservatives dominate, approved $50 billion in savings over five years. But the Senate, where moderates have more voice, approved $35 billion in savings.

One of the most serious sticking points has little to do with spending cuts. The Senate’s measure included a provision to allow oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska, but that was dropped from the House bill because of opposition from moderate Republicans.

At last week’s GOP retreat, sources said House leaders expressed doubt that they could pass the spending-cut bill if it contained the drilling amendment. Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) reportedly said he would try to drum up more support from House Democrats for the provision.

Another leadership challenge is to pass the annual appropriations bill for the departments of Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education. Last month, the House rejected a version that would cut or freeze spending for many popular programs.

Some Republicans attributed the rare defeat for their leaders to the decision to strip the bill of home-state projects that critics called pork barrel.

After the leadership retreat, Rep. Jack Kingston (R-Ga.) said it was likely that projects would be put back in to win the bill’s passage.

The measure’s unexpected defeat also was seen by many as a sign of weakness in the House GOP leadership since September, when Rep. Tom DeLay of Texas was forced to step down as majority leader after being indicted in his home state on money-laundering and conspiracy charges.

“There’s no real discipline for the members,” said one senior Republican aide who spoke on the condition of anonymity when discussing party tensions. “There’s a reluctance to tell members, ‘This is how things are going to be.’ That was DeLay’s strong suit.”

Usually in times of trial, congressional Republicans can find unity on the party’s cornerstone policy: cutting taxes. But now, in the shadow of big budget deficits, a split has emerged.

The Senate’s bill would cut taxes by $60 billion. But along with the provision to raise taxes on oil companies that provoked the White House’s veto threat, the bill omitted a Bush priority -- an extension of low tax rates on investment income.

The House may soon take up its version of the tax measure, which would extend the investment tax cuts. But the differences between the two chambers are significant enough that work on a final measure is likely to continue into next year.

House leaders plan action this month on legislation that would boost the number of Border Patrol officers -- a reflection of the GOP’s desire to respond to growing complaints from constituents about illegal immigration.

The Senate will not tackle an immigration bill until next year, but on this and the major budget issues, GOP leaders want something to show for themselves before heading home for the holidays.

“The next two weeks are going to be very productive,” Kingston said. “We are coming back to work, not just to finish up.”