Newsletter: Essential Politics: The silent vote, the steady rains

Good morning, I’m Sacramento bureau chief John Myers, your Essential Politics host for Tuesday. We’re expecting to dry out a little today in the capital city, after a heavy dose of rain and snow over the past few days. Apparently the rain heads south today (beware, Angelenos).

Maybe it’s the steady patter of rain that’s the inspiration for this morning’s theme, a musing on the ebb and flow of some of the most interesting political debates in California and across the nation.

THE QUIET VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP?

The most steady flow of political news, of course, continues to be coming from the race for the White House. And in that, there’s a new school of thought that suggests an even stronger-than-believed following for Donald Trump is starting to emerge.

That’s because, in a nutshell, some Trump supporters may not feel comfortable telling a human being in a telephone survey that they’re backing the celebrity real estate developer in his quest for the Republican nomination.

David Lauter reports on a new study suggesting “some significant number” of Trump supporters feel more comfortable in the anonymity of online polls, which show the candidate with around 40% support.

THE QUOTE MACHINE (LINDSEY GRAHAM, THAT IS) DROPS OUT

He never found much support when it came to polls, but Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) was a nonstop source of quips and quotes in his presidential bid. On Monday, the veteran lawmaker suspended his campaign via a YouTube video.

But his campaign may be mostly remembered for the zingers he delivered from the debate podium:

On the need for immigration reform: “Strom Thurmond had four kids after age 67. If you're not willing to do that, we need to come up with a new immigration system.”

On Vladmir Putin: “This guy’s got a pair of twos and we’ve got a full house.”

On bringing partisan gridlock in Washington, D.C., to an end through socializing: “That’s the first thing I’m going to do as president. We’re going to drink more.”

THE HILL’S HARD-TO-MISS RENOVATION

For two successive Architects of the Capitol, it was the impossible dream: get congressional funding to make badly needed refurbishments to the Capitol dome in Washington, D.C.

Now, the nearly $60-million project — and the scaffolding it brought with it — has become an accepted change to the skyline of the nation’s capital. Noah Bierman takes a closer look at the project and just how much work it’s taking to refurbish the national landmark.

SHRIMP BOY SPEAKS OUT

In the case that rocked the Chinese American community in San Francisco and the political world in Sacramento, the man accused of being at the center of a racketeering and murder investigation says he was hounded by the feds every time he tried to clean up his life.

Raymond “Shrimp Boy” Chow took the stand in his federal trial on Monday in San Francisco, attempting to refute allegations of his role in an organized crime sting that also brought down former state Sen. Leland Yee.

The trial began last month and is expected to stretch into January.

DROUGHT RELIEF, THANKS TO STATE REGULATORS

The steady rains in the northern part of the Golden State have helped ease some of the immediate pangs of the drought. And while conservation may remain the overall message from state water officials and Gov. Jerry Brown, there could be a bit of an official easing up on the squeeze coming to some inland communities.

Bettina Boxall reports that the State Water Resources Control Board is telling some communities with new water sources — think recycled or desalinated water, for example — that they might get a break on their conservation mandates.

The decision comes as California braces for a strong El Niño season, and could lower the overall average water conservation rate of the state. And that would present an interesting political challenge for Brown, who will no doubt be pushing for additional long-term drought discussions when the Legislature returns to Sacramento in two weeks.

'SHARKNADO 4' GETS TAX CREDITS

The California Film Commission on Monday announced the latest recipients of beefed-up tax credits for film and television projects filmed in the Golden State, Javier Panzer reports. Among the winners were seven TV series, two pilots, the ABC program “Mistresses,” which will relocate to Los Angeles from Vancouver, and “Sharknado 4.”

That’s right, state-subsidized sharks.

The Los Angeles region has seen a surge in the number of shooting days for scripted television since the Legislature tripled funding for filmed projects to $330 million annually last year. The film commission has touted poaching several productions including “Veep” from Maryland and “American Horror Story” from Louisiana. Up to $42 million in credits will be available for the latest slate of projects, which the commission announced could generate an estimated $254 million in direct in-state spending, including $103 million in wages for crew members.

The film tax credits received bipartisan statehouse support, even though some budget analysts have cast a skeptical eye at the overall economic benefit and have suggested that other worthy boosts have been passed over during debates in Sacramento.

TODAY’S ESSENTIALS

— Sarah Wire has the difficult story of how a mother’s grief over losing her two daughters led to a change in federal law.

— Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Torrance) is calling on the Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate Olympus Corp. in response to a Times article that detailed how the company kept selling medical scopes despite warnings from a 2012 superbug outbreak in the Netherlands. Olympus failed to warn U.S. hospitals about the Netherlands findings. Seven outbreaks of drug-resistant infections at U.S. hospitals have been linked to the scopes, including one at UCLA's Ronald Reagan Medical Center that claimed the lives of three patients.

— The governor, Starbucks and Tom Selleck: three topics that, ahem, floated to the top of the list for users of the search engine Bing when it came to California’s drought in 2015. Paresh Dave reports there were also a lot of queries about links between the drought and climate change.

— Seema Mehta and Mark Z. Barabak report from New Hampshire about the state’s history of unpredictability, resurrecting candidates given up for dead, spurning front-runners or elevating also-rans with late-developing shifts in sentiment.

— Former state Republican Party Chairman and U.S. Senate candidate Duf Sundheim is writing a twice-a-month op-ed in the Spanish-language newspaper La Opinión in an effort to reach Latino voters. The first piece ran last month. His columns won’t help him win an endorsement from the newspaper: Atty. Gen. Kamala Harris already locked that up in October.

— Chelsea Clinton is having her second baby, leaving Bill and Hillary Clinton elated for another grandchild.

LOGISTICS

This week’s Wednesday newsletter will come in the afternoon, with news on the 2016 campaign from Washington bureau chief David Lauter. Miss yesterday’s newsletter? Here you go. Did someone forward you this? Sign up here to get Essential Politics in your inbox daily. And keep an eye on our politics page throughout the day for the latest and greatest. And are you following us on Twitter at @latimespolitics?

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