Dodgers mailbag: Does Chase Utley belong in the Hall of Fame?

Would you vote Chase Utley into the Hall of Fame?

May 23, 2016 10:08 AM PT

The Dodgers are 22-23. That projects over the course of the 162-game season to a 79-win record. That is not a very good pace, not for a team with a nearly $250-million payroll, not for a team with an ace (Clayton Kershaw) decimating opposing lineups, not for a team with young players (Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Trayce Thompson) showing flashes of stardom.

But, here the Dodgers are. The bullpen leaked during a pair of losses to the Angels. Kenley Jansen blew two saves this weekend in San Diego. The curious case of Chin-hui Tsao also occurred. The offense still comes and goes. It’s a bad time, and a 17-inning victory on Sunday can only count for so much.

So there are questions to answer. As always, you can ask me about the Dodgers on Twitter @McCulloughTimes. I’ll do my best to answer. Let’s do this.

That is an excellent question. When you ask about a player reaching the Hall of Fame, you are really asking two questions:

1. Does the player deserve induction?

But also:

2. Will the voters actually vote for him?

The second part of the equation has become difficult to predict. Let’s ignore the cases of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, two of the greatest players of all time, a duo that obviously belongs inside a museum dedicated to baseball. Plenty of deserving players without the taint of performance-enhancing drugs – Tim Raines, Jeff Bagwell, Curt Schilling, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina – continue to remain on the outside looking in. I am curious to see how the voters treat Chase Utley.

Let’s try to answer the first question. Does Utley deserve induction?

Jay Jaffe, the well-mustachioed, well-mannered scribe from Sports Illustrated, pioneered a system to judge Hall-worthiness called JAWS. According to the JAWS system, Utley resides just below the cusp of induction.

In an approach that certainly makes sense, Jaffe judges candidates on a pair of metrics: Peak performance, and overall performance. Was this player historically great during his prime? And did this player sustain a version of excellence across a lengthy career?

Based on these criteria, Utley easily passes the peak portion of the examination. His wins above replacement for his seven best seasons is 49.1. That puts him in close company with Rod Carew (49.7) and ahead of his former manager in Philadelphia, Ryne Sandberg (46.8). He also surpassed the peak performances from the two most recent second basemen to reach the Hall, Roberto Alomar (42.8) and Craig Biggio (41.6).

Utley has a less convincing case on overall performance. He is playing in his 14^th season, which is beyond admirable for the average player, but less impressive by the Hall’s standards. In overall WAR, Utley (63.7) trails both Alomar (66.8) and Biggio (65.1). If he continues this solid age-37 season, Utley could narrow the gap with both players in 2016.

So, does Utley deserve induction? He certainly merits extensive consideration. He outpaced the peak performance of the two most recent inductees at his position. He has nearly replicated each man’s career production. The problem is convincing voters.

Almost all of Utley’s case relies on analytical thought. None of his traditional counting stats. He would need to keep playing until 2018 in order to reach 2,000 hits. He has hit 238 home runs (ninth most for any second baseman in history) and stolen 144 bases. These numbers do not leap off a page.

He was the best player on that Philadelphia dynasty from 2007 to 2011, but the voters chose Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard as MVPs. Utley never finished higher than seventh on a ballot. In retrospect, with the advancement of analytics, we can see how his defense, his base running and his positional offensive value set him apart in his era. From 2007 to 2011, he ranked second in the majors in WAR, according to FanGraphs.

But the voters are not totally swayed by WAR. The player often requires a narrative, and the controversy surrounding Utley’s slide in October may affect his case. This is not particularly fair, but such is life. I am curious to see how much longer Utley continues to play. He has been one of the better Dodgers this season, and his physical condition is unquestioned.

So does Chase Utley belong in the Hall of Fame? Based on the JAWS system, and my opinion, he is very, very close. Will he receive a fair shake? That remains to be seen.

I’m sure Kenta Maeda would be a solid reliever. But the Dodgers gave him an eight-year contract. He was a starter for eight seasons in Japan. It is all he knows.

If, theoretically, the Dodgers get into a playoff situation in which the team has four or five better starters than Maeda, then I’m sure he could contribute in relief. But in May, when the starting rotation is already suspect, it does not make a ton of sense to shift him to the bullpen.

I cannot. I do not think my fastball can make the grade.

His Twitter feed is not cooperating so there’s no embed, but here’s a question from Brian O Regan: “Do you get any sense that the leash for Baez/Hatcher is actually running low? Seems as if the frustration would boil over.”

Yes, I would say the theoretical leash for both Pedro Baez and Chris Hatcher has all but disappeared. Dave Roberts will still use Baez in high-leverage moments, but he clearly prefers Joe Blanton, Louis Coleman and Adam Liberatore. As for Hatcher, the team is trying to reintegrate him into the mix by having him pitch in lower-pressure moments. He threw a scoreless inning Sunday, which the club must consider to be progress.

Enrique Hernandez spends most days on the bench. Considering the fact that he has hit .071 in the month of May, and .091 since that great game against Madison Bumgarner in April, that is probably where he belongs. Trayce Thompson has outplayed him and moved ahead of him on the outfield depth chart.

His best hope for maintaining a roster spot when Andre Ethier and Scott Van Slyke return is that he can play the infield. With Charlie Culberson in Oklahoma City, the team lacks another backup for Corey Seager at shortstop.

They already have a fourth roommate. His name is Alex Wood.

I am not sure Carlos Frias will be promoted to the majors in the near future. He might be a better option than some of the guys in the bullpen, but the only relievers with options are Pedro Baez and Adam Liberatore. Frias profiles more as organizational depth than as a serious major-league asset.

Have to say Pedro Guerrero.

This is just one man’s opinion, and I probably have an inflated sense of how good “808s and Heartbreak” is.