Racing! Bellafina wins, but not in a runaway

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we look at early Kentucky Derby odds,

This weekend brings the second round of the Kentucky Derby Futures Pool and while personally I am more interested in how our own Jon White ranks the Top 10, it’s always fun to see how the betting public views things.

Now, I’m not telling you what to do, but if you have a good feeling about Coliseum, you could get a great price if he’s the real deal. Or, if on Sunday he runs in the San Vicente like he did in the Sham Stakes, you are likely flushing your money down the drain.

The pool closes at 3 p.m. PST on Sunday. The San Vincente is about 4:10 PST. So, I guess that makes it a little more interesting. Now, the money in the future pools is not huge, but it’s not racing roulette small either.

Here are the odds as of 6 p.m. PST, followed by the (Pool 2 morning line).

1. Bourbon War, 31-1 (50-1)

2. Coliseum, 36-1, (15-1)

3. Game Winner 5-1, (6-1)

4. Global Campaign 26-1, (50-1)

5. Gray Attempt 99-1, (50-1)

6. Gunmetal Gray 31-1, (20-1)

7. Harvey Wallbanger 21-1, (20-1)

8. Hidden Scroll 9-1, (12-1)

9. Improbable 7-1, (8-1)

10. Instagrand 16-1, (10-1)

11. Knicks Go 57-1, (30-1)

12. Limonite 76-1, (50-1)

13. Maximus Mischief 32-1, (20-1)

14. Mucho Gusto 22-1, (15-1)

15. Network Effect 55-1, (30-1)

16. Owendale 99-1, (50-1)

17. Signalman 30-1, (20-1)

18. Tacitus 89-1 (50-1)

19. Tax 61-1, (20-1)

20. Vekoma 49-1, (30-1)

21. Walking Thunder 99-1, (50-1)

22. War of Will 16-1, (30-1)

23. Win Win Win 46-1, (30-1)

24. Mutuel Field/All others 2-1, (5-2)

Mini-rant at TSG

It’s tough being a fan of The Stronach Group’s manipulation and flat-out lying of post time at both Santa Anita and Gulfstream. It’s called the “Gulfstream drag” or the “Santa Anita drag.” The idea behind it is to get more late betting if you deceive the public of when post time actually occurs.

When I talked to P.J. Campo, the VP of racing for The Stronach Group, a couple of weeks ago, he said one of the priorities is to make sure that tracks don’t step on each other over when the races are run.

Well on Saturday, the sixth race at Gulfstream and the first race at Santa Anita both went off at 34 past the hour. (There are different time zones involved here.) TVG, stuck in a tough spot, decided to run the Gulfstream race live and tape (even though no one uses tape anymore) delay the Santa Anita race.

This deserves a big “Who goofed I’ve got to know?” You know when Santa Anita is going to run its first race. It’s the first post for goodness sakes. You have some flexibility to decide when you are going to run at Gulfstream. How about figuring it out?

My point is if you are going to lie to the public for the greater good than you’ve got to make things work. In this case, it’s pretty inexcusable to have Gulfstream and Santa Anita to run on top of each other.

I’m done. Back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Santa Anita review

The most interesting stakes on Saturday’s card, IMO, was the Grade 2 $200,000 Las Virgenes Stakes for 3-year-old fillies going a mile. Bellafina, the heavy favorite at 1-9, won easily but not impressively. Her winning margin was three-quarters of a length over Enaya Alrabb. Bellafina paid $2.20, $2.10, $2.10. Calf Moon Bay was third followed by Mother Mother and Tomlin.

Still, she pretty much went wire-to-wire for the win.

“When you are one-to-nine, maybe people expect you to win by a long distance,” said winning trainer Simon Callaghan. “But when that other filly came to him, [jockey Flavien] Prat was always confident he was going to hold her off. I left it to Flavien.

“You can’t be critical of a win. We got the job done and that was always the plan, to have two races before the Santa Anita Oaks and we’ll give her a little freshening and look forward to that.”

There was an upset in the second stakes when True Valor won the Grade 3 $100,000 Thunder Road Stakes. River Boyne was the heavy favor but never fired. True Valor gave Callaghan his second stakes win of the day by half a length.

It was also the first ever U.S win for jockey Andrea Atzeni. True Valour paid $25.00, $10.00 and $9.20. Ohio was second and True Valour was third.

“We knew there wasn’t probably not going to be that much speed,” Callaghan said. “But we had to stick to the plan to get him to relax. I just said to Andrea, ‘I prefer you to come in late than too early.’ … And he rode an absolutely perfect race.”

The final stakes was the Grade 2 $200,000 San Marcos for older horses going 1 ¼ miles on the turf. The race was originally scheduled for last Saturday but was moved to this week because of rain.

Platinum Warrior won by a half-length over Epical and Beach View was third. Platinum Warrior paid $34.40, $13.80 and $8.40.

“Since we have been training, we were always looking at the longer races and we were kind of waiting,” winning jockey Shane Foley said.

It’s unclear what’s up next.

“The owner is talking about going to Dubai for the festival so he might go over there and then come back,” said winning trainer John Sadler.

Santa Anita preview

It’s a pretty decent card for a Sunday with two graded stakes races. First post is 12:30 p.m. The card was a little thin, so the racing office re-opened entries until Friday to try and pump up the fields. I got notes from a few of you wondering why the late entries and PPs, and this is why. The average field size for the nine-race card is 7.2.

The first stakes is the Grade 3 $100,000 Sweet Life Stakes for 3-year-old fillies going down the 6 ½ hillside turf course. Thriving is the 8-5 favorite for trainer Jeff Mullins and jockey Prat. This is only Thriving’s third race in this country having previously run in England. She is two-for-eight lifetime.

Morning-linemaker Jon White named two second favorites in Apache Princess and Ginger Nut, both 5-2. Apache Princess for Keith Desormeaux and ridden by brother Kent won her last two races, an allowance and maiden special. She is two-of-five lifetime. Ginger Nut is making her U.S. debut for Sadler and Joel Rosario. She is three-for-eight lifetime and won a handicap last out. Post is around 3:40 p.m.

Now, the race I’m looking forward to is the Grade 2 $200,000 San Vicente for 3-year-olds going seven furlongs. There are only five starters with a 4:10 post.

This is the make or break race for Coliseum in Bob Baffert’s deep roster of 3-year-olds. After he smoked the field in his debut, he finished a very disappointing sixth in the Sham. He’s a big horse and looked pretty uncomfortable in the paddock, spending a fair amount of time on two feet as he was being walked around the ring. He broke poorly in the Sham and was never a factor. He gets a jockey switch from Joe Talamo to Mike Smith. He’s the 6-5 favorite.

If you are a believer in the “other Baffert” theory of handicapping, he’s also got the second favorite in Dessman at 5-2. He’s only run once and won by 7 ½ with Prat aboard. Here’s guessing that he goes a little shorter than 5-2.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 6, 6, 8, 6, 8, 9, 6, 5, 11 (3 also eligible).

Big Races review

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday.

Gulfstream (6): Grade 3 $150,000 Suwannee River Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Winner: Valedictorian ($21.20)

Tampa Bay (8): Grade 3 $175,000 Tampa Bay Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Inspector Lynley ($8.80)

Tampa Bay (9): $150,000 Suncoast Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile and 40 yards. Winner: Point of Honor ($7.00)

Santa Anita (5): Grade 2 $200,000 Las Virgenes Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile. Winner: Bellafina ($2.20)

Aqueduct (8): $150,000 Jimmy Winkfield Stakes, 3-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Winner: Haikal ($6.60)

Tampa Bay (10): Grade 3 $175,000 Endeavour Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Hawksmoor ($4.80)

Gulfstream (11): $100,000 El Prado Stakes, 4 and up, 7 ½ furlongs on turf. Winner: Hembree ($7.00)

Oaklawn (7): $100,000 King Cotton Stakes, 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Heartwood ($6.20)

Tampa Bay (11): Grade 3 $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Well Defined ($16.00)

Santa Anita (7): Grade 3 $100,000 Thunder Road Stakes, 1 mile on turf. Winner: True Valor ($25.00)

Delta Downs (2): $100,000 Louisiana Premier Night Starlet, La-bred fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile. Winner: Goodprofit ($15.80)

Santa Anita (9): Grade 2 $200,000 San Marcos Stakes, 4 and up, 1 ¼ on turf. Winner: Platinum Warrior ($34.40)

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Sunday. All times PDT:

1:33 Aqueduct (8): $100,000 Biogio’s Rose Stakes, NY-bred fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 mile. Favorite: Split Time (5-2)

3:38 Santa Anita (7): Grade 3 $100,000 Sweet Life Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 6 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: thriving (8-5)

4:10 Santa Anita (8): Grade 2 $200,000 San Vicente Stakes, 3-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Coliseum (6-5)

Bob Ike’s SA pick of the day

SECOND RACE: Exactas 2/1,4

If the expected rain shows up, there figures to be four off-the-turf races on an already very shallow card. I will try a couple one-way exactas, keying sharp old pro Stringent (5-2) over a pair of horses who figure to do their best running from off the pace in Run Macho Run (4-1) and Baby Bear's Soup (4-1). Stringent gave trainer Anna Meah her first career win and there is no reason he can't score right back.

Saturday’s result: Euro import Sejo got bet in half, raced in a good spot all the way around, then had no rally in the lane as his longshot stablemate pulled off the upset.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE FIVE: No. 6 CREATIVE SPARK (4-1)

She earned a quality figure on my charts 22 nights ago when the 4-year-old filly almost upset the field at 20-1 odds when racing wide the entire journey vs. a solid cast of male rivals. A local winner on Oct. 19, she faces fillies and mares at 4-1 odds Sunday. She should take a step forward in the speed department and will need it as she starts from the outside post six in her second start back over this racing surface.

(No worries, Ed Burgart hasn’t gone away, he’s just on vacation. Chris Wade has been the racing analyst and host of the Los Alamitos night simulcast broadcast for nearly two decades. While Ed is on vacation, Chris also fills in as the nighttime morning-line maker.)

Final thoughts

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Any thoughts, you can reach me at johnacherwa@gmail.com. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Saturday’s results and Sunday’s entries.

SAPPHIRE KID stalked three deep, came four wide into the stretch, took the lead under left handed urging three wide in upper stretch and won clear. MOONSHINE ANNIE came off the rail on the first turn and chased outside a rival, swung three deep into the stretch and gained the place. ROLLING SHADOW angled in and saved ground stalking the pace, came out in upper stretch, lacked room off heels in midstretch then split foes in deep stretch and was outfinished for second. EMMY AND I sped to the early lead, angled in and set the pace inside, fought back in upper stretch and was outfinished for a minor award. MISS VOLUPTUOUS three deep early, had speed outside the pacesetter then stalked a bit off the rail, continued inside on the backstretch and second turn, came out into the stretch, bid between foes then continued between rivals through the final sixteenth and was outfinished. HALO DARLIN pulled her way along inside and was in tight into the first turn, came a bit off the rail and steadied off heels early on the backstretch, continued inside on the second turn and into the stretch, was blocked along the rail through the final furlong and could not recover. RADISH close up stalking the pace between horses, continued between foes in the stretch and weakened late.

PORTAL CREEK a step slow to begin, chased just off the rail then outside a rival, came out leaving the turn and five wide into the stretch, bid outside under strong handling in midstretch, gained the advantage nearing the sixteenth pole and won clear under some urging. BAM BAMS LIL RIVER saved ground stalking the pace, came out leaving the turn, bid three deep into the stretch to gain a short lead, could not match the winner but clearly bested the rest. HOT ROD GAL dueled between horses then stalked outside a rival on the turn, swung four wide into the stretch and held third. REACHREACHREACH stumbled at the start as the ground broke out behind, chased outside a rival then off the rail, came a bit wide into the stretch and was outfinished for the show. QUEEN CARMELITA four wide early, dueled three deep then outside a rival on the turn, put a head in front into the stretch, was between horses in midstretch and weakened late. ORCA between foes early, angled in and dueled inside, fought back on the turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong.

KY. COLONEL angled in early and stalked inside then a bit off the rail, bid outside the pacesetter leaving the second turn to gain the lead into the stretch, kicked clear, drifted in late and proved best under some urging. TOUGH IT OUT chased inside, split horses on the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and edged a rival late for second. TIGERBEACH pulled between horses early then stalked a bit off the rail, split rivals on the second turn, came out into the stretch and was edged late for the place. PLUM DANDY had speed a bit off the rail then angled in and dueled inside, inched away on the backstretch, fought back leaving the second turn and into the stretch and weakened late. KRISTI'S COPILOT stalked three deep then outside a rival, continued three wide leaving the backstretch and four wide on the second turn and into the stretch and lacked a rally. GRYFFINDOR settled outside a rival then off the rail, split horses into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. CANADA stalked outside a rival then three deep leaving the backstretch and on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened. ORCHESTRAL was sent along early then pulled along the inside and was in tight past the wire the first time, saved ground chasing the pace throughout and also weakened. CONQUEST DADDYO angled in and dueled outside a rival then stalked a bit off the rail and also weakened through the drive.

SHORT OF EZ had good early speed and dueled inside, kicked clear under urging in the stretch and proved best. BUCKYS PICK settled off the rail then inside into and on the turn, swung out into the stretch and again in upper stretch and edged rivals late for the place. TREASURE HUNTER chased a bit off the rail, came out three deep into the stretch and split horses late for third. OLD INDIAN TRICK had speed between horses then stalked a bit off the rail, split rivals in midstretch and was edged late for a minor award. ROYAL TRUMP stalked outside then alongside a rival on the turn and three deep into the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. MARKET SENTIMENT dueled between horses then stalked a bit off the rail leaving the turn and into the stretch, drifted to the inside in the drive and weakened. ROYAL CREED prompted the pace three deep then outside the winner leaving the turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong.

BELLAFINA a half step slow to begin, went up between horses to the lead nearing the first turn, set a pressured pace a bit off the rail then inside, inched away leaving the second turn, edged clear and held gamely under urging. ENAYA ALRABB stalked the pace inside, came out leaving the second turn and three deep into the stretch and finished willingly. CALF MOON BAY chased inside then a bit off the rail, angled in on the second turn, came out into the stretch and again in upper stretch and edged a rival late for the show. MOTHER MOTHER three deep into the first turn, prompted the pace outside foes then alongside the winner on the backstretch and most of the second turn, continued just off the inside into the stretch and was edged late for third. TOMLIN broke out a bit, went four wide into the first turn, chased off the rail then outside a rival, dropped back leaving the second turn and had little left for the stretch.

HERO FOR HIRE dueled between horses then inside leaving the turn, regained the lead in the stretch and held on gamely under urging. ESKENFORADRINK a half step slow to begin, had speed four wide between foes then dueled three deep into the turn, put a head in front outside the winner leaving the turn, fought back alongside that one through the stretch and continued willingly to the end. TODOS SANTOS broke out and a bit slowly, dropped back off the rail, went outside on the turn and four wide into the stretch and closed gamely late. WE WILL RE JOYCE had good early speed and dueled inside, stalked leaving the turn, came out into the stretch and weakened. FORTHENINETEEN chased between horses then inside on the turn, came out some in midstretch, angled back in and could not summon the needed late kick. CIOPPINO PASADINO had speed between horses to press the pace, stalked just off the rail on the turn and weakened. DRAGON FLOWER chased a bit off the rail to the stretch and lacked the necessary response. TIGER MOM a bit slow to begin, went up inside to stalk the pace, came out leaving the turn and into the stretch and weakened. TWISTED ROSIE had speed five wide then pressed the pace four wide into the turn, stalked outside on the bend and three wide into the stretch and also weakened. A FILLY CAN DREAM chased outside, dropped back leaving the turn, angled in some nearing the stretch and had little left for the drive.

TRUE VALOUR (IRE) broke in a bit, chased outside a rival then just off the rail, continued alongside a foe leaving the second turn and three wide into the stretch, bid three deep under an energetic hand ride past midstretch and gamely prevailed under a tap of the whip in deep stretch. OHIO (BRZ) stalked outside a rival, bid three deep into the stretch, gained a slim lead outside a foe, drifted in a bit in midstretch, fought back between horses in deep stretch and continued willingly. LE KEN (ARG) angled in and stalked inside then a bit off the rail, bid alongside the pacesetter into and on the second turn to gain the lead, inched away leaving that turn, fought back a bit off the fence in the stretch and also went gamely to the end. RIVER BOYNE (IRE) came out early then angled in and stalked inside, angled out a bit leaving the second turn, split horses into the stretch, tried to go through between rivals in midstretch but steadied in tight past the eighth pole, came out some and was edged for the show. DESERT STONE (IRE) broke slowly, settled inside chasing the pace, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. BLACKJACKCAT had speed outside a rival then inched away and angled in, set the pace inside, fought back into and on the second turn, dropped back in the stretch and weakened.

MUCH BETTER had speed between horses and set a pressured pace between foes, inched away off the rail on the turn, was mildly hand ridden to widen in the stretch drifted in and won clear. PRINCIPE CARLO pressed the pace four wide then stalked outside a rival on the turn and into the stretch and was second best. MR PAYTIENCE chased off the rail then outside on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and edged a rival for the show. UNBRIDLED'S SKYE between rivals early, stalked outside a foe then a bit off the rail, split horses in deep stretch and was edged for third. SPIN LIGHTNING settled off the rail then inside, came out into the stretch and lacked a rally. TOOTHLESS WONDER saved ground stalking the pace, continued inside on the turn and in the stretch and weakened. ASANO had speed between horses to press the pace, stalked a bit off the rail on the turn, drifted to the inside in the stretch and also weakened.

PLATINUM WARRIOR (IRE) stalked a bit off the rail, went up three deep on the backstretch and bid alongside a rival, took a short lead leaving the second turn, kicked clear in the stretch under left handed urging, drifted in and held gamely. EPICAL pulled a bit off the rail then inside chasing the pace, came out leaving the second turn and three deep into the stretch and finished well. BEACH VIEW settled a bit off the inside then outside a rival, came out on the second turn and six wide into the stretch and closed willingly. YA GOTTA WANNA angled in and chased a bit off the rail, went outside a rival into the stretch, split horses in the drive and went on willingly late. CHICAGO STYLE chased a bit off the rail then three deep leaving the backstretch, came three wide into the stretch and finished with some interest between foes. DABSTER chased three deep then outside a rival, continued three wide on the second turn, came out five wide into the stretch and could not offer the needed late kick. UNAPOLOGETIC saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch, was between foes in the drive and lacked a rally. SEJO (IRE) chased outside a rival, came out on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and also lacked the needed late kick between foes. FLAMBOYANT (FR) settled outside a rival then a bit off the rail, found the inside leaving the second turn and could not offer the necessary response. INDIA MANTUANA stalked off the rail, bid between foes early on the backstretch then tracked again, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. ROMAN ROSSO (ARG) pulled his way to the early lead, set the pace inside, dueled along the rail on the backstretch and second turn and into the stretch, then weakened. PRINCE OF ARABIA angled in outside a rival then found the rail in the first stretch, saved ground thereafter to no avail. LUCKY SOUL was away a bit slowly then steadied when crowded in the opening strides, settled just off the rail then inside to the stretch and did not rally.

TANNERS PRIDE dueled inside, inched away in the stretch and held on gamely under urging. CANDY ZIP had speed between horses to duel for the lead, battled outside thee winner into and on the turn, drifted out some in the stretch but came back on late. SARATOGA MORNING stalked between horses, continued outside a rival in the stretch and edged that one for the show. CRAZY UNCLE RICK close up stalking the pace a bit off the rail then inside on the turn and in the stretch and was edged for third. ZIPPY GROOM settled off the pace inside, continued along the rail on the turn and in the stretch and improved position. RHETTBUTLER chased off the rail then a bit off the fence on the turn and into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. NEIGHBORHOOD BULLY settled off the rail, came out three wide into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. HONEYMOONZ OVER pressed the pace outside then stalked three deep into and on the turn and into the stretch and did not rally. HOLLYWOOD DANCER chased outside then four wide into the turn, continued three deep on the turn and into the stretch and lacked a response in the drive. SHIFTY DANCER stalked outside then off the rail, angled in a bit off the fence nearing the stretch and weakened.

SETTLE IT stalked a bit off the rail, bid outside a rival leaving the hill, took the lead into the stretch and held gamely under urging. STYLIN OCEAN stalked outside then alongside a rival, came three wide into the stretch, bid outside the winner in the drive and continued willingly. DR WYSONG saved ground chasing the pace, came out leaving the hill and four wide into the stretch and finished well. LUCKY LATELY stalked between horses, came into the stretch outside a rival and was outfinished. SPANISH CHANNEL stalked off the rail then inside on the hill and into the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. LUCKIEST LADY EVER broke in and a bit slowly, chased just off the rail, came out some in the stretch and lacked the needed rally. SCARLET HEAT broke a bit slowly and was crowded, settled off the rail, came four wide into the stretch and improved position. RUBY BRADLEY settled off the rail then outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. LUCKY STEPPER broke a bit slowly, saved ground off the pace to the stretch and lacked the needed rally. WINTERBREAK sped to the early lead, set the pace inside, dueled leaving the hill and into the stretch and weakened. SHANGHAI BARBIE stalked off the rail then inside down the hill and into the stretch and also weakened. TIP TOP GAL pulled her way along to chase outside then alongside a rival, came three deep into the stretch and also weakened. Rail on hill at zero.