Racing! Another handicapping lesson from Rob Henie

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we add Roadster to the list of horses on the Kentucky Derby trail.

We’ll lead with the most important stat, a second straight day with no fatalities. You can see more on that later. Fingers, and every other flexible body part, remains crossed for good luck.

Now, on to the stuff we would rather be talking about. We’re going to move the Santa Anita review material to the top here. Looked like the best allowance race of the year, but lost some luster when Dessman was a vet scratch from the one-mile allowance for 3-year-olds. Victor Espinoza was scheduled to ride. So, here’s hoping Dessman gets fixed and trainer Bob Baffert can find a spot for him in the remaining Derby preps.

Still, this was the race everyone wanted to see if Baffert’s Roadster could regain his prior form after minor surgery for a breathing issue. The answer was yes. Under a complete hand ride by Mike Smith, Roadster won the five-horse allowance by an easy 2 ½ lengths.

It was also a measuring stick for John Sadler’s Nolo Contesto, who some folks expected much more than his second-place finish. In fact, he was the post-time favorite.

Roadster paid $3.80, $2.20 and $2.10. Nolo Constesto was second followed by Manhattan Up, Diamond Blitz and Grab the Munny.

“He’s back on the Derby trail,” Baffert told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “That was quite a performance off a layoff. We just want to see how he comes out of this. … When he worked in 10 and three (six furlongs in 1:10 3/5ths on Feb. 17) out of the gate the other day, that’s sick, for a horse to do that on this track.”

Roadster broke well and bided his time just off the pace until entering the stretch, before roaring to the front easily and leaving everyone wondering how well he would have done if he were full out.

“I’m just so happy with the way he ran,” jockey Smith said. “His mechanics, his [breathing], everything was smooth. Last time, he was struggling, so they did a little minor surgery [Friday], he was loving it.”

Our occasional co-host extraordinaire, Eric (Manny) Sondheimer did a video report on the race. You can watch it here.

Weekly handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

This lesson today is from the 10^th race at Gulfstream, which has a fabulous card, instead of our usual Santa Anita, which is expecting rain. Rob, the floor is yours.

“Smack dab in the middle of a pretty nice Gulfstream card, is this maiden special weight at 1 1/16 miles on the main track. Whether we’re looking at debut types, or runners who’ve already run, we’re looking for horses who’re ready to move forward, begging the question — is his best good enough, or would even a better effort still fall short against his competition here on Saturday? With that in mind, top selection is FELIX THE FOX (#6). Following three straight good tries back in New York, Shug McGaughey put him aside, freshened him up, working well, and notice the blinkers being added? When blinkers are on for a debut or off a layoff, it’s almost always a good sign, meaning, they’re looking for a focused trip right now, not simply giving the race, but rather, the blinkers are a sign of a runner who’s likely been working with them in the mornings, responding well, thus, the addition here today looking for that extra edge. He fits super from a class perspective, with wonderful action, and take a look at him on the track, he’s a good looking son of Tapit. Speaking of intentions, HAUNT (#2) is super easy to find. Given his debut, Jose Ortiz was teaching him on the backside, simply looking to relax before coming with one run, and this guy did just that, getting his final ¼ in :24.3, the ideal prelude to this 8 ½ furlong outing here today. BOTH RUNNERS ARE READY TO OFFER STRONG, PROGRESSIVE TRIES THE FINAL ¼ HERE TODAY.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“ECHR Maiden Power Rating: +2.50 (above average)

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 6-2

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 3,5,9

“Positive Notes:

“4 Identifier - Pretty tough to exclude any runner from the “super feed” barn of Jorge Navarro.

“Negative Notes:

“7 High Amplitude - Chased the freakish effort of Hidden Scroll last time out, and it’s not that he doesn’t have ability, but will the presence of that runner affect this one’s price with regard to his risk-reward being offered?

“TOP PICK: FELIX THE FOX (#6 4-1 Rosario)

“SECOND CHOICE: HAUNT (#2 6-1 J Ortiz)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Who goofed, I’ve got to know?

Who usually goofs, me. I guess I was so excited about Friday’s eighth race allowance that I ignored the ninth race. While it does you no good to know it at this point, there were nine, not eight races.

The SA count

Some of you may object to this count as tempting fate. But, if Vin Scully can talk about no-hitters in the ninth we can talk about the number of training and racing starts without a fatality. It’s not forever, but just for now. The totals are since training and racing resumed on Thursday at Santa Anita. And, remember, this doesn’t count the hundreds of horses who galloped and exercised over the Santa Anita dirt or training tracks. There is no training on the turf course.

Day Dirt training Training track Racing Total

Thursday 45 28 50 123

Friday 252 64 67 383

Total 297 92 117 506

Santa Anita review

We moved the big race to the top of the newsletter. All you need is there.

Santa Anita preview

Saturday card starting at 12:25 p.m. has 10 races, with four on the turf (maybe, rain is expected), and one OK, but not great, stakes race. There are six claiming races, one allowance and two maiden specials. The field size is OK, with only two six-horse fields. The average field is 7.9 a race.

The stakes, $100,000 Pasadena for 3-year-olds going a mile on turf sits in the middle of the card at about 2:55 p.m. The favorite is Rijeka at a tepid 3-1 for trainer Richard Baltas and jockey Mario Gutierrez. He’s one-for-seven lifetime with the gelding’s one win coming in, if it could be anything else, a maiden special, on Aug. 12. Gutierrez is the fifth jockey in five races, although he has ridden him twice before.

Stubbins is the 7-2 second choice for Doug O’Neill and Tyler Baze. He is two-for-four lifetime, winning his last two. Baze will be his fourth jockey in five races.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

10:00 Gulfstream (4): Grade 3 $150,000 Palm Beach Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: A Thread of Blue (1-1)

10:30 Gulfstream (5): Grade 3 $150,000 Canadian Turf Stakes, 4 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Breaking the Rules (9-5)

11:00 Gulfstream (6): Grade 3 $100,000 Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes, 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Recruiting Ready (6-5)

11:30 Gulfstream (7): Grade 3 $150,000 Very One Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 3/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Holy Helena (9-5)

12:00 Gulfstream (8): Grade 3 Herecomesthebride Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Cambier Parc (2-1)

1:30 Gulfstream (11): Grade 3 $150,000 Honey Fox Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Bellavais (3-1)

1:50 Aqueduct (8): $100,000 Bernardini Stakes, 4 and up, 1 5/16 miles. Favorite: Weather Wiz (1-1)

2:01 Gulfstream (12): Grade 2 $200,000 Davona Dale Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile. Favorite: Jaywalk (2-5)

2:32 Oaklawn (8): $100,000 Spring Fever Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 5 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Amy’s Challenge (7-5)

2:32 Gulfstream (13): Grade 2 $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Hidden Scroll (9-5)

2:56 Santa Anita (6): $100,000 Pasadena Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Rijeka (3-1)

3:06 Gulfstream (14): Grade 2 $200,000 Mac Diarmida Stakes, 4 and up, 1 3/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Channel Maker (9-5)

Bob Ike’s SA pick of the day

EIGHTH RACE: No. 5 Proud Emma (6-1)

Rain is expected, which figures to eliminate the four turf races on this card. I will take a shot in this first-level allowance contest with sophomore filly now in the Peter Miller barn (had been with recently-retired trainer Mike Machowsky). She ran a decent second going long in the slop and should be dead fit as she cuts back to 7 furlongs while reuniting with Mike Smith. She has the Baffert-trained favorites to contend with but offers betting value in here.

Friday’s result: Contagion ($11.00) got the front-running trip we had envisioned and gamely held off the favorite to close out the card on a positive note.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE FOUR: No. 5 Celebrate Life (9-2)

He went well late in his most recent outing on Feb. 16 to deny the heavy favorite at 9-1 odds while starting from post number one. This bay fought hard to take the lead and then had to outduel a determined The Bull Mousse, who had passed him inside the 1/16^th pole in this 870-yard race. Two weeks since that race, Celebrate Life compares favorably in this affair, draws a much better post this evening for his racing style of racing and should be in the mix at an attractive price.

(No worries, Ed Burgart hasn’t gone away, he’s just on vacation. Chris Wade has been the racing analyst and host of the Los Alamitos night simulcast broadcast for nearly two decades. While Ed is on vacation, Chris also fills in as the nighttime morning-line maker.)

Final thought

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Any thoughts, you can reach me at johnacherwa@gmail.com. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

BUCKYS PICK bobbled some at the start, stalked between horses early then off the rail, continued three deep leaving the hill and into the stretch, bid three wide in the drive, gained the lead under urging in deep stretch and inched away late. ARTIE B GOOD a bit slow to begin, chased a bit off the rail then outside, came three wide into the stretch, continued between foes through much of the drive and got up outside foes late for the place. FAST COTTON sped to the early lead, angled in and set the pace just off the rail then inside, fought back leaving the hill and along the inside through the stretch and just held third. SNAZZY DRESSER stalked outside a rival, bid alongside the pacesetter leaving the hill, put a head in front between horses in midstretch, fought back in deep stretch and was edged for the show. GAIN GROUND chased outside a foe, came out four wide into the stretch and was outfinished. ITALIANO saved ground stalking the pace, came out around a rival into the stretch, awaited room off heels in midstretch and also was outkicked late. POINT GUARD settled off the rail then just off the fence, came out for room in upper stretch and lacked the needed late kick. SILVER SUMMER bobbled a step out of the gate, stalked just off the rail then inside on the hill and into and through the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. COWBOY settled just off the rail then inside, saved ground to the stretch, came out in upper stretch and did not rally. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

EXUBERANCE bobbled slightly at the break, saved ground stalking the pace, bid inside leaving the second turn to gain the lead into the stretch and drew clear under urging then steady handling late. DULCE RIDE had speed outside foes then angled in and set the pace a bit off the rail, battled outside the winner leaving the second turn and into the stretch then could not match that one in the drive while clearly best of the others. SAUCE ON SIDE in tight between horses early, chased a bit off the rail then inside on the second turn, came out into the stretch and picked up the show. HARMONY VICTORY stalked three deep then outside a rival on the backstretch, continued three wide on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened. LEVELER between horses early, stalked just off the rail, dropped back between foes on the second turn and gave way.

IMMINENT bobbled some just after the start, angled in and dueled inside, inched away a bit off the rail into the stretch and won clear under urging. GOTTA BE LUCKY saved ground stalking the pace throughout and clearly bested the others. DADDYS REAL DIVA broke a bit slowly, pulled between rivals early then bid between foes leaving the backstretch and on the turn and held third. MISS OMNIPOTENT had speed outside then dueled outside the winner, battled three deep on the backstretch and turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. STARSHIP SKY dropped back off the rail, came out into the stretch and gave way. RIDE OUT THE STORM bobbled slightly at the start, stalked outside a rival then three deep, continued alongside a foe into and on the turn and off the rail leaving the turn, drifted inward in midstretch then drifted out late and had little left for the drive.

ADENS DREAM sent inside to duel for the lead, battled along the rail on the turn and through the stretch and held on gamely under urging. K THIRTY EIGHT dueled between horses then outside the winner on the turn and through the stretch and continued willingly to the end. LITTLEBITAMEDAL saved ground chasing the pace, moved up inside on the turn, swung out three wide into the stretch and was edged for the place. SPOKANE EAGLE stalked off the rail then outside on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and was edged for third. BEST TWO MINUTES settled between horses then off the rail, angled in on the turn, continued inside in the stretch and lacked the needed rally. KOCHEES dropped back off the rail on the backstretch, came out on the turn and four wide into the stretch and could not offer the necessary late kick. DENMAN'S CALL stalked outside then off the rail, angled in leaving the turn and did not rally. CROSS CREEK between horses early, chased off the inside then outside a rival on the turn and could not summon the needed response in the drive. GRAYCASTER pressed the pace three deep then stalked off the rail on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened.

LIL MILO sped to the early lead, set the pace a bit off the rail then inside and drew off in the stretch under a couple cracks of the whip and an energetic hand ride then a long hold late. RED ENVELOPE stalked the pace inside, came a bit off the rail in the stretch and held second between foes late. NAP LAJOIE saved ground chasing the pace, came out some into the stretch, angled back to the inside past midstretch and edged a rival for the show. RINSE AND REPEAT settled off the rail, angled in some on the hill, came out in upper stretch and put in a late bid at a minor award. MINOSO chased between horses down the hill and into the stretch and also put in a late bid at a minor share. LUKE'S ON FIRE broke a bit slowly, saved ground chasing the pace throughout and lacked the needed rally. FOREST CHATTER stalked outside a rival then off the rail, came three wide into the stretch and did not rally. SHORT OF EZ had speed off the rail then stalked outside a rival to the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. FAVERSHAM between horses early, settled a bit off the rail to the stretch and lacked a response in the drive. SHAYMIN stalked three deep, came four wide into the stretch, drifted inward in the drive and weakened. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

GIA LULA pressed the pace three deep then stalked off the rail leaving the backstretch, bid again three wide on the turn to gain a short lead a quarter mile out, inched away under urging in midstretch and held gamely. COPPER COWGIRL had speed off the rail early, dueled between foes then outside a rival, battled between foes on the turn and into the stretch and continued willingly. SPRINGTIME DANCE chased three deep then outside a rival on the turn, came out into the stretch and bested the others. WARM IT UP saved ground stalking the pace, came out some in the stretch, went around a rival a sixteenth out and lacked the needed rally. ROYAL ASTRONOMER went up inside to duel for the lead, fought back along the rail on the turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. ZENSATIONAL KISS dropped back off the rail on the backstretch, went outside a rival on the turn and a bit wide into the stretch and did not rally. LUCKY LULA chased between rivals, dropped back a bit off the rail on the turn and weakened.

FOSTER BOI a step slow to begin, angled in and chased inside, came out leaving the hill and four wide into the stretch, bid outside under left handed urging to gain the lead while drifting in some in midstretch and won clear. APPRECIATED broke a bit slowly, chased off the rail then angled in on the hill, came out in upper stretch and gained the place late. BRIX had speed between horses then dueled outside a rival and three deep past midway on the hill, battled back outside a foe leaving the hill and into the stretch and held third. JUGGLES three deep early, stalked outside a rival or off the rail, came three wide into the stretch and was edged for the show. GRANDPA LOUIE broke in a bit, had speed inside to duel for the lead then battled between foes, took back a bit off the rail leaving the hill and could not offer the necessary response in the drive. NO PARKING HERE between horses early, chased outside a rival, came out into the stretch and lacked a rally. FLICFLAC broke a bit slowly, dropped back off the rail then angled in and saved ground to no avail. MASTER JUBA settled outside then alongside a rival chasing the pace and weakened in the drive. PREACHING TRAINER broke slowly and steadied when crowded, pulled hard along the inside, stalked then bid along the rail to duel for the lead leaving the hill, drifted out leaving the dirt crossing and steadied again into the stretch and had little left for the drive. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

ROADSTER three deep into the first turn, stalked outside a rival, bid outside the pacesetter leaving the backstretch and again leaving the second turn, took a short lead into the stretch, inched away in midstretch and won clear under a couple taps with the whip turned down, some hand urging and a snug hold late. NOLO CONTESTO bobbled at the start, stalked inside, came out a bit and went around a rival in midstretch and edged a foe for the place. MANHATTAN UP between horses early, tugged his way along a bit off the rail stalking the pace, came out on the second turn and three deep into the stretch, was under left handed urging in upper stretch then had the rider lose the whip in midstretch and was edged for second. DIAMOND BLITZ had speed outside a rival then inched away and angled in, set the pace inside, edged away briefly from the winner into the second turn, fought back along the fence leaving that turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. GRAB THE MUNNY settled off the rail, dropped back on the backstretch and second turn and gave way. FINAL TIME HAND TIMED.

CONTAGION sped to the early lead, angled in and set the pace inside, responded when challenged on the backstretch, inched away again a quarter mile out, came out a bit then drifted in from the whip in the stretch but held gamely under urging. TIKKUN OLAM pulled along the inside early then saved ground stalking the pace, came out leaving the second turn and three deep into the stretch and continued willingly late but could not quite catch the winner. KNIGHT'S CROSS also pulled and stalked a bit off the rail, bid between horses on the backstretch then outside the winner on the second turn, drifted in late and held third. SALTARIN angled in and chased outside a rival, was between horses into the stretch and was edged for the show. ROCKANDAHARDPLACE stalked a bit off the rail then outside a rival, continued between horses on the second turn, angled to the rail into the stretch and was outfinished for a minor share. BLAME IT ON KITTY saved ground chasing the pace, came a bit off the rail in the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. GLEYBER broke in the air and slowly, came out early, went four wide into the first turn, stalked three deep then outside a rival on the backstretch, continued three wide on the second turn and into the stretch and lacked a response in the stretch. DYF stalked outside then bid three deep leaving the backstretch, tracked the leader again on the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened.