Ohio State vs. Clemson: How do they match up?

Fiesta Bowl (CFP semifinal)

No. 2 Clemson (12-1) vs. No. 3 Ohio State (11-1) at University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz., 4 p.m., ESPN

Most intriguing story line: This figures to be the closer matchup between the two College Football Playoff semifinals, with both teams having something to prove. Clemson is still hurting from last season’s 45-40 title-game loss to Alabama in this very same stadium. As quarterback Deshaun Watson put it: “No one wants to finish second place.” Ohio State is the only CFP contender that failed to win a conference championship — the Buckeyes didn’t even qualify for the Big Ten Conference title game. But they impressed the selection committee all season long and now hope to show the playoff system got it right.

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Clemson pass offense vs. Ohio State pass defense: Probably the key to this game. As the Heisman Trophy runner-up, Watson leads an explosive offense that ranks seventh in the nation with 332.6 passing yards a game. But with 15 interceptions he has also been more prone to mistakes than in past seasons. Lapses could prove costly against an Ohio State defense that leads the nation in passing-efficiency defense and intercepted 19 passes. Buckeyes Coach Urban Meyer said: “Obviously a great quarterback, a nice balanced offense. That side of the ball is going to be a great matchup with their skill against ours.” Edge: Even.

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Clemson run offense vs. Ohio State run defense: The Tigers have a 1,000-yard rusher in Wayne Gallman, and have a constant threat to scramble for big gains with Watson, but rank only 66^th in the country, averaging 173.1 yards on the ground. The Buckeyes’ defense is just as stout against the run as it is against the pass, allowing opponents 117.8 yards a game. Middle linebacker Raekwon McMillan is the linchpin with 87 tackles this season. His performance against Michigan in the regular-season finale put his team into the final four. Edge: Ohio State.

Ohio State running back Curtis Samuel, stiff arms Rutgers defensive back Anthony Cioffi on Oct. 1.

(Jay LaPrete / AP )

Ohio State pass offense vs. Clemson pass defense: Though most of the Buckeyes’ offensive success has come running the ball, quarterback J.T. Barrett has been solid in throwing for 202.3 yards a game. He will be challenged by a Clemson defense that has been highly efficient against the pass and, just as important, ranks fourth in the nation with 3.54 sacks a game. Senior linebacker Ben Boulware and his unit will have to keep an eye on Barrett, who has the ability to prolong plays and make big gains with his legs. Edge: Clemson.

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Ohio State run offense vs. Clemson run defense: In typical Big Ten fashion, the Buckeyes have worn down opponents with a ground game the averages 258.3 yards and ranks ninth in the nation. H-back Curtis Samuel and running back Mike Weber provide a one-two punch behind All-America center Pat Elflein. Clemson has been no slouch against the rush, surrendering only 125.8 yards a game, but might not have faced an attack of this quality. Samuel said: “We could do a whole bunch of different things they’ve got to worry about.” Edge: Ohio State.

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Special teams: Ohio State has been statistically better in kickoff returns, kickoff defense and net punting. But the Buckeyes had two kicks blocked this season, one of which cost them dearly in an upset loss at Penn State, and Clemson is tied for 12^th in the nation with four blocked kicks. Edge: Ohio State.

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David Wharton’s pick: It’s tough to pick against Meyer — the Ohio State coach has a track record for guiding his teams to big victories, even when they are not supposed to win. But in this case, Clemson has the more recent championship experience, the better quarterback and too many weapons, so long as the Tigers don’t shoot themselves in the foot. Clemson 24, Ohio State 21.

david.wharton@latimes.com

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