Kabul Rally Seeks to Lure Refugees Back

Thousands of people paraded here Monday in support of a government program of “national reconciliation” aimed at attracting more than 3 million refugees back to Afghanistan from Pakistan and Iran.

But a senior Afghan official, speaking at the massive rally and parade honoring the ninth anniversary of the “April Revolution” that installed Afghanistan’s leftist government, said that so far only 44,000 refugees have accepted the Soviet-backed government’s offer of amnesty, compensation and a chance to take part in a coalition government.

Defense Minister Mohammed Rafie said the number who have returned represent less than 2% of the people listed as refugees by the United Nations. Among those who have come back, he said, are 21,000 guerrillas who have been fighting Afghan government forces and an estimated 115,000 Soviet troops.

Diplomatic sources here in the mountainous Afghan capital said the number of refugees who have returned since Afghan leader Najib announced the reconciliation program in January is probably lower than the figure given by Rafie, though perhaps not much lower.

“The figure they have given, even by their own accounting, is not a very large one,” a non-Western diplomat said. “I should think it is fairly realistic.”

Rafie and other Afghan leaders have blamed the low response on what they say is interference by Pakistan and the United States at the frontiers.

In fact, the two main themes of Monday’s observance, which lasted for nearly three hours and, according to diplomats and government spokesmen alike, was the largest and most enthusiastic pro-government gathering here in recent years, were the reconciliation program and bitter condemnation of the United States for its support of the Muslim rebels, known as the moujahedeen, or “holy warriors.”

$400 Million in Aid

Last year the United States reportedly supplied the rebels with more than $400 million in weapons ranging from small arms and ammunition to Stinger ground-to-air missiles. The level of aid has been described as the largest CIA operation since the war in Vietnam.

In keeping with the spirit of reconciliation, the rebels were not described Monday, as in the past, as “bandits” or “counterrevolutionaries.” They were called “misguided brothers” and “those who have had a misunderstanding.”

For the most part, the chanting marchers, including thousands of government workers and their families, reserved their venom for the United States. A tableau covering five parade floats depicted a demonic Uncle Sam lashing chained prisoners representing refugees “imprisoned” in camps in Pakistan.

U.S. Policy Blamed

A banner over one of the floats bore the message that “all the (Afghan refugees) want to come back but the American imperialists won’t let them.”

On the last of the five floats, refugees were shown rising up against Uncle Sam and binding him with a long red rope. This scene was greeted with enthusiasm by the crowd and by Afghan officials on the reviewing stand. Also on the stand were several dozen Soviet political and military representatives.

Soviet-made MIG-21 jets of the Afghan air force roared low over the parade route, followed by a flight of Soviet MI-24 attack helicopters.

Rifles and High Heels

Marchers included elements of the Afghan armed forces as well as a special unit of women volunteers wearing high heels and traditional embroidered silk costumes and carrying Kalashnikov rifles.

Thousands of banner-waving, chanting Afghans in civilian dress marched behind the military units. The marchers appeared to exceed 100,000 in number, far more than the onlookers. The turnout seemed to indicate that Najib’s Soviet-backed government, despite its limited support in the countryside, has a solid base of support in the capital, even if it is based largely on government workers.

Western diplomats in Pakistan and India tend to describe Najib’s Communist government as a puppet of the Soviet Union, with almost no popular support even in the capital. But Monday’s parade seemed to demonstrate that nine years after the revolution, and 7 1/2 years after the Soviet Union sent in troops to support the revolution, the regime has won over at least a part of the Afghan urban middle class.

Real Support Seen

“Najib does have real support,” an Asian diplomat who has close contacts with the Afghan government said, “particularly in the urban setting of Kabul.”

Since the revolution, which began April 27, 1978, two Communist leaders have been assassinated and one has been forced to step aside. Power has shifted from one extreme faction of the party to another, but the Kremlin’s idea of historical continuity is still at the heart of its policy in Afghanistan.

In December, 1979, when the Soviets intervened, installing Babrak Karmal as president after his two predecessors had been assassinated, Soviet newspapers described the succession as “a new evolutionary phase” of the revolution. And last May, when Karmal was dropped and replaced by Najib, this was described as one more phase.

Soviet Policy Key

Observers who have followed sporadic peace negotiations sponsored by the United Nations suggest that a settlement in the civil war depends entirely on Soviet willingness to abandon the revolution and open the door to other political forces, including royalists and Islamic fundamentalists.

“The main question,” a U.S. diplomat said recently in New Delhi, “is this: Are the Soviets willing to give up the revolution?”

Recently there have been indications that the Soviets are at least bending in that direction. With Karmal’s replacement by Najib, the Soviets have demonstrated their willingness at least to abandon individual revolutionary leaders.

Also, Soviet and Afghan leaders have recently begun to refer to the Afghan regime as a “nationalist democratic” government rather than a “socialist revolutionary” government.

Position Softening

Perhaps the most remarkable indication of a softening in the Soviet position came last November when Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev held a press conference in New Delhi with Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi.

“Afghanistan is our neighbor,” Gorbachev said. “We have had excellent relations with it under all the regimes. We cooperated with kings and prime ministers, and we are cooperating with today’s Afghanistan, which arose from revolutionary developments in that country. It is up to the Afghan people to decide what system to have, to make their choice and to give an impetus to the development of their society, which is considerably behind others. . . .

“We stand for a nonaligned, independent, sovereign Afghanistan that would be the master of its resources and everything that belongs to it; for a neutral Afghanistan. What kind of regime there will be is up to the Afghan people.”

King Forced to Abdicate

Afghanistan first came under strong Soviet influence in the period from 1919 to 1929, when the country was ruled by King Amanullah. From 1933 to 1973 the ruler was King Zahir Shah, who is now in exile in Rome. For most of his reign, Zahir Shah was controlled by his powerful, pro-Soviet cousin, Mohammed Daoud, who in 1973 forced the king to abdicate.

Daoud was ousted in April of 1978. Nur Mohammed Taraki was the first of four men to head the government of the People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan. Less than a year later, he was assassinated and replaced by Vice Premier Hafizullah Amin, a leftist hard-liner who immediately alienated large segments of the population.

When it became clear in December of 1979 that Amin was losing control, Soviet troops moved in and installed Karmal. Amin was killed.