Botha’s Hard Sell May Go Bankrupt : Government Pushes Black Township Vote, but Is Anyone Listening?

South Africa’s government is spending more than $2.5 million to promote the coming town council elections in black townships--a spending spree greeted with derision by the nation’s anti-apartheid lobby. Most activists have pointed out that the government’s decision to spend so much to “sell” these elections was an admission that, after five years, black town councils had failed to take off. The government is now launching them anew.

The government has argued that it has a responsibility to counter propaganda against the councils. As the government promotes the elections in black newspapers and on radio and television, sentiment against the councils is rising in the townships. A candidate has been murdered; two people were killed when hand grenades were lobbed into a meeting called by one of the groups supporting the elections. Most candidates have gone into hiding as unions and community organizations campaign silently against the elections scheduled for Oct. 26. With the emergency regulations that prohibit anyone from preaching against the elections and security forces in place hoping to ensure the elections’ success, it is obvious that government and anti-government forces are headed for a major confrontation.

Will this be the usual confrontation between President Pieter W. Botha and black organizations, or are the stakes higher this time? Without a doubt, much more is at stake. The elections will involve all racial groups, but attention will be on those in white areas and the black townships. While Botha can afford to lose in some of the white areas where his opponents on the far right enjoy support, he is not prepared to lose even an inch of territory in the country’s black townships. Instead, he wants to gain territory now held by the anti-apartheid lobby, which controls most of the country’s black areas. To Botha, using $2.5 million of the taxpayers’ money and harnessing the might of the state’s armory to this end is justifiable.

He believes that during the past 10 years the government has initiated a lot of reform, only to be kicked in the teeth. The feeling in government is that its reform measures were thrown out before they could fail or succeed. The government also believes that the low poll turnout in the 1983 municipal elections--11%--was the result of intimidation. The government maintains that the state of emergency, which bans most anti-apartheid groups and places strict curbs on the press, has put the intimidators to flight--so now is the time to sell the concept of town councils anew.

Government officials have argued that the state of emergency was welcomed by most people in black townships. An increase of the vote in black areas in next month’s elections would vindicate this argument and justify further crackdowns on anti-government organizations.

Botha also knows that President Reagan, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, who have allied themselves with Botha by opposing sanctions, now expect Botha to show that he has the support of black South Africa. The three leaders face increasing pressures from anti-apartheid movements in their own countries to take tougher action against Botha. A strong showing by Botha forces in the municipal black elections would enable them to stem these pressures.

That is why the anti-apartheid lobby is determined to make the elections flop. The lobby knows that organizations like the African National Congress and the Pan Africanist Congress have told over-seas audiences that they, not Botha, enjoy black South Africa’s support. If the elections indicated that it was Botha instead who had the support of blacks, it would be a setback for anti-apartheid organizations and their supporters.

The anti-apartheid lobby also contends that the elections cannot be free and fair as long as groups like the United Democratic Front and the Azanian Peoples Organization are banned and most black leaders are in detention. They maintain that opposing the elections is part of the democratic process. In addition, activists have argued, the town councils are an imposition by Botha’s apartheid government. They were founded on apartheid principles and the government’s belief that it held the right to decide for black South Africa.

Voting in black townships could be a big disappointment for Botha. Blacks are not expected to vote in appreciable numbers, and Botha will run short of candidates. He had hoped to encourage many to run for the council offices. But the buildup of tension between the government and the black organizations, in addition to the risk involved in participating, has scared off new faces. Thus many present councilors, albeit discredited and isolated by their communities, will likely be returned to power as unopposed candidates, leaving Botha with no significant change to embrace.