Live, From Outer Space: A New Universe of Telecast Possibilities : Television: For the couch potato of the future, direct broadcast satellites will pick up where cable leaves off. Price, however, could determine program choices.

For some of us, a simple television set, capable of receiving just the free programming broadcast over the airwaves, will be enough to meet our at-home video entertain-

ment needs.

But we will be the techno-dinosaurs.

As Wednesday’s announcement from four of the world’s largest entertainment and technology companies underscores, yet more choices are on the horizon to entice would-be dinosaurs into accepting additional programming into their TV sets.

Direct broadcast satellite, or “direct from outer space and into your home” broadcasting, is the latest service offering additional information and entertainment. Over the next two decades, there will be yet other services. They include improved cable service, which is expected during the next few years. Also possible are fiber optic broadcast lines, but these are not expected to be commonly available into the home for at least 20 years because of the high cost of bringing the cable to the doorstep.

Which services will win out will depend largely on which can provide the best programming at the best price. Technology alone isn’t the issue, some analysts say.

“People don’t watch fiber optics or satellites. They watch programs,” said Paul Marsh, analyst at Bateman Eichler, Hill Richards in Los Angeles.

“The real business question is simply whether there is any demand for yet more pay-to-view broadcast services, and whether that air time can be filled with quality programming,” says Mitch Shapiro, a cable television analyst with Paul Kagan Associates in San Diego.

Already it’s clear that a growing number of Americans want more than just what is provided by conventional free network broadcasting. An estimated 45 million U.S. house-

holds--or nearly half of the total--subscribe to cable television, generating about $13 billion a year in revenues for cable operators. Analysts estimate that by the end of 1992, 92% of the nation’s households will have access to cable television and 70 million will subscribe.

Wednesday’s announcement demonstrates that at least four major companies--the Hughes Communications unit of General Motors, Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp., General Electric’s National Broadcasting Co. and Cablevision Systems Co.--believe that there will be sufficient demand for more programming.

“The new service will give Americans a taste of the next century’s boundless range of video choices,” said Stephen J. Petrucci, president and chief operating officer of Hughes Communications, which will provide the satellite system.

Shapiro says they may be right. Although direct broadcast satellite service was tried several years ago in the United States and was a colossal, expensive flop, Shapiro says the economics and technology of the business have changed sufficiently to give this service a chance.

According to analysts, the costs of traditional lay-it-in-the-ground cable service is rising as operators are being forced to replace old wiring and relay stations with more state-of-the-art devices. Further, attempts to get by with simply extending the coverage of their existing equipment have prompted a flurry of customer complaints about service. That, along with concerns about high charges, has brought calls for re-regulation of the entire cable industry.

At the same time, the cost of satellite service has dropped. The proposed service, called Sky Cable and scheduled for introduction in late 1993, plans to use the most powerful space transmitter satellite ever launched for commercial communications, according to the companies’ joint statement.

The high-power satellite system will make as many as 108 new channels available to receivers as small as a flat, napkin-sized dish that could be mounted on a window sill or roof top, the companies said. The receivers would cost about $300 and would be easily available at consumer electronics stores, the firms said. And Sky Cable operators say their monthly charge will be $25, about what the average cable subscriber now pays.

In contrast, current satellite broadcasting services beam low-power signals that require huge back-yard receivers--often 12 feet in diameter--to receive them. These “satellite dishes” cost $2,000 to $3,000 and are banned in many suburban communities as unsightly.

But if Sky Cable is a success, analysts say, you can bet that there will be other similar services. Already, the Federal Communications Commission has issued licenses for eight satellite broadcast systems. And traditional cable operators may be among those operating the satellite systems.

“Cable companies believe they are in the business of bringing entertainment to people’s homes. If that means by wire in the ground, fine. But if it means with a satellite in the sky, that’s what they will do, too,” said one cable programming executive.

SATELLITE TRANSMISSION 1. Tevision programming is transmitted to a satellite. 2. The satellite receives the programming. The satellites planned for Sky Cable are being billed as the most powerful space transmitters ever launched for commercial communications purposes. 3. A home with a satellite dish can pull in the television signal from the satellite. Sky Cable will use a mini-dish the size of a dinner napkin and will cost about $300, the venture’s participants say. Conventional dish antennas are about 10 feet in diameter and can cost more than $3,000. As with most existing cable and satellite systems, a cable will run from the mini-dish to a decoder on top of the television set.

CABLE TELEVISION 1. Programming of all types--news, movies, sitcoms, sporting events--is transmitted to a satellite orbiting high above the earth. 2. The satellite receives, sorts and amplifies the information, then transmits it back to a ground station. 3. The television programs travel along cables to the homes of subscribers. The telecommunications industry is moving toward the use of fiber-optic cable, which can carry its signals more quickly and with less interference than copper wire cable.

The local cable operator receives the signal on a large dish antenna and redistributes it to customers. The company schedules and promotes the shows and signs up subscribers.