Ethiopia Jews Pose Israel Dilemma : Immigration: Nation must weigh continuing to supply shaky Mengistu regime with arms or risk a cutoff of refugees.

A bloody conflict in Ethiopia is presenting Israel with a dilemma: whether to continue to supply arms to the battered Marxist government of Mengistu Haile Mariam and keep the flow of black Jewish immigrants open, or cut off the weapons and risk a bottleneck in Addis Ababa, Foreign Ministry officials here say.

The decision is complicated further by the sinking fortunes of the Communist government in Ethiopia. Eritrean rebels from breakaway regions along the Red Sea coast have made gains in their battle against the central government. By continuing to supply Ethiopia with arms, Israel risks alienating the possibly triumphant rebels, who also have hundreds of potential Jewish immigrants under their control.

This week, thousands of potential immigrants have been reportedly lined up in front of the Israeli Embassy in Addis Ababa awaiting visas. No visas had been issued for the last week, and it is not clear whether the holdup had to do with bilateral disagreements or difficulties in discovering whether all the refugees are actually Jewish.

Israeli Foreign Ministry sources say that there is some concern that many of the Ethiopians seeking to migrate to Israel may not be Jews but Christians who are trying to flee the nation’s turmoil and hunger.

The full nature of Israel’s diplomatic relations with Ethiopia, which were re-established earlier this year after a 13-year break, have been shrouded in secrecy.

The government of Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir has denied supplying Ethiopia with cluster bombs--deadly weapons that explode in midair and shower the ground with explosive pellets. But reports persist that Israel has become a major supplier of weaponry to the Marxists in what some Israelis quietly characterize as an arms-for-immigrants deal.

“Our main interest in Ethiopia is to get the Jews out,” said a Foreign Ministry official. “All else is secondary.”

There have been conflicting reports about whether Ethiopia has already decided to cut the flow of Jewish refugees to Israel. Mengistu, the Ethiopian leader, paid a secret visit to Israel early this month when the weapons and immigrant issues were discussed, Foreign Ministry sources confirm.

According to statistics printed in Israeli newspapers last week, about 3,000 Ethiopians have arrived in Israel on refugee flights so far this year, with about 400 arriving in June alone. Between 12,000 and 15,000 more Ethiopian Jews reportedly remain in Ethiopia and, the Jerusalem Post reported, about 2,000 of those live in areas under rebel control.

Israel’s backing for the Marxist government drew the ire of Washington, which had long pressed for the expulsion of troops from Cuba that shored up the regime. Israel, in a pattern it has established in such far-flung countries as Guatemala and China, stepped in with weapons unavailable from the West.

Although Israel gives priority to extracting Ethiopian Jews in its relations with Ethiopia, analysts here have pointed out that the arms program reaffirms a longtime policy of Israel to build alliances on the periphery of the Arab world.

At different times, Israel joined with Iran, a Muslim but not Arabic country, to aid breakaway Kurdish rebels in Arab Iraq. In southern Sudan, Israel dropped weapons by air to Christian rebels. In Uganda, Israeli secret agents helped former dictator Idi Amin depose President Milton Obote. In Lebanon, Israel supported Christian Maronite factions in the country’s long-running civil war.

BACKGROUND

In one of its most celebrated undertakings, Israel in 1984 brought out about 12,000 Ethiopian Jews in a secret airlift that came to be known as Operation Moses. Ethiopia halted the operation after it became known in January, 1985, leaving many families divided. It was not resumed until Israel and Ethiopia resumed diplomatic relations nearly five years later.