County Logs Its Slowest Growth Rate in Decades : Population: Planners say 1.1% may be smallest increase since World War II. Recession blamed in exodus of residents.

Ventura County grew at its slowest rate in decades last fiscal year, increasing by only 7,700 residents and lagging behind the region and the state for the fourth straight year, the state Department of Finance has reported.

The county’s 1.1% growth rate for the year ending last July was by far the lowest since annual record keeping began in 1960, and local planners said it is probably the lowest since World War II.

The rate was so low, according to state analysts, because for the first time more residents moved out of Ventura County than moved in from other states and foreign countries.

For several years, more residents have moved out of Ventura County than have moved here from the other 49 states. But until last year, enough foreign immigrants had settled here to more than offset the loss to other states.

The county’s net loss through migration was 647 residents last fiscal year, compared to a net gain of 3,577 the previous year.

The overall population increase--from 695,300 in July, 1992, to 703,000 last July--occurred only because the county had 8,347 more births than deaths, state analysts reported.

“It has changed for nearly all the counties--not as many people move in as move out,” said Elizabeth Hoag, the state’s principal population analyst. “It’s a reflection of the recession in California. In the boom times, you rarely saw a negative for any county.”

The new statistics reaffirm Ventura County’s recession-stalled, slow-growth trend of the 1990s, county planner Steve Wood said. But Wood said he is surprised by the extent of the reported slowdown and dubious that the state growth figure is accurate.

“I have no explanation for it, and just off the top of my head I don’t think that’s accurate,” he said. “It could be as low as 9,000 or 9,500, but I don’t think 7,700 is right.”

Wood noted that two years ago the Department of Finance’s fiscal year report estimated that Ventura County lost 44 residents to migration, but that the final figure was increased by more than 3,000. The state figures are considered provisional because they do not include final counts for births and deaths, and migration figures are sometimes refined, Hoag said.

“I’m not so sure that when they take another look at this next year that they’re going to hold to these numbers,” he said.

Job increase or loss often dictates population growth, Wood said, and Ventura County’s civilian workers increased from 395,000 to 398,000 during 1992-93.

However, two other employment figures support state growth estimates. The number of jobs by companies in this county dropped from about 246,000 to 242,000 over the same period. And the county’s unemployment rate was 10.4% last July, the highest rate in more than a decade.

State and local analysts said other factors--such as housing costs and concerns about education and crime--may also have led to a migration out of California.

Indeed, population growth statewide was only 1.4% last year, the smallest gain in two decades, and Southern California grew by only 1.2%.

The meager statewide growth resulted from a continuing exodus of jobs and workers to other states, officials said. The state lost 252,000 people to other states.

But California still grew to 31.7 million residents, up 442,000 in one year, thanks to 319,000 new residents from foreign countries.

Ventura County’s growth rate was 49th among California’s 58 counties. Of the six counties of Southern California, only Los Angeles County’s increase of 0.7% was less.

Imperial County led the region with a 4.5% increase. Riverside and Orange counties were next, with increases of 2.7% and 1.7%. San Bernardino County’s increase was 1.6% and San Diego’s 1.1%

Along the Central Coast, Santa Barbara County grew 1.1% and San Luis Obispo County 1.6%

Continuing a trend, the Gold Rush country of Northern California remained the fastest-growing region, at 2.7%, followed by the San Joaquin Valley at 2.6%.

Rural counties grew at the fastest rate. Among large urban counties, only Riverside, Fresno, Kern and San Joaquin ranked among the top 30 counties in rate of growth.

The Department of Finance bases its twice-a-year population estimates on changes in such data as births, deaths, school enrollment, registered voters, driver’s licenses, address changes, registered autos, housing units and income-tax returns.

Low Population Growth

Population increases in Ventura County are the lowest in at least three decades, and the rate of growth is only about one-third of peak years in the 1980s.

Fiscal Total Yearly Percent of Year Population Increase Increase ‘92-93 703,000 7,700 1.11% ‘91-92 695,300 11,900 1.74% ‘90-91 683,700 12,100 1.80% ‘89-90 671,600 9,600 1.45% ‘88-89 662,000 17,000 2.64% ‘87-88 645,000 18,000 2.87% ‘86-87 627,000 15,800 2.59% ‘85-86 611,200 14,300 2.40% ‘84-85 596,900 12,700 2.17% ‘83-84 584,200 12,100 2.12% ‘82-83 572,100 12,600 2.25% ‘81-82 559,500 14,600 2.68% ‘80-81 544,900 12,700 2.39%

Source: California Department of Finance