THE TIMES POLL : Most Back Haiti Pact but Oppose Sending Troops

Americans generally approve of the negotiated settlement to the crisis in Haiti, but remain skeptical about long-term U.S. involvement in that country and unconvinced that any vital national interest is present there, according to The Times Poll.

And while the public is more supportive of President Clinton’s handling of Haiti than of his handling of the rest of his job, the sharply divided view of the Haitian situation has had no measurable impact on Clinton’s overall standing or on domestic politics generally.

Clinton’s standing with the public remains low--as low as at any point in his presidency--and while Americans also remain skeptical of his Republican opposition, the GOP appears well-positioned to make substantial gains in this fall’s midterm elections.

According to the poll, the public remains opposed to sending U.S. troops to Haiti, fears that the forces will become bogged down there, distrusts the Haitian generals and offers limited support for any long-term effort to “restore democracy” to the troubled Caribbean island. Americans do, however, accept “stopping human rights abuses” as a justification for U.S. intervention in Haiti--a result that underscores how important it is for the Administration over the next days and weeks to find ways of reining in the Haitian armed forces.

Overall, Americans approve of the agreement, 67% to 27%, but disapprove of sending troops to Haiti, 53% to 43%. Those who approve of the agreement but not of sending troops to enforce it tend to be women. Republicans and conservatives also are more likely to fall into this category.

Clinton’s approval ratings show continued slippage since the last Times Poll, taken in late July. That decline, which showed up in other polls taken in August and early September, appears unrelated to the Haitian crisis. Indeed, Clinton’s handling of Haiti receives a narrowly favorable 47%-44% rating. Asked directly if Clinton’s actions in Haiti made them feel more or less favorable toward the President, 65% said the subject had no effect, 16% said it made them more favorable and 16% said less favorable.

Nonetheless, only 52% of those polled now say they see Clinton as an “effective” President while 46% do not. Nine months ago, Clinton had a 65%-32% edge on that measurement. Only 34% said they see Clinton as a “strong and decisive leader” as against 59% who do not; 40% say Clinton has the “moral authority to serve as commander in chief” while 48% say he does not; and only 17% say they have a good idea of Clinton’s goals in foreign affairs, while 74% do not.

By 52% to 42%, the public disapproves of Clinton’s overall handling of his job as President, up from 47% to 45% in July, and an extraordinarily high 34% say they “disapprove strongly,” up from 27% in July. Clinton receives even worse scores on two specific aspects of his job--the public disapproves of his handling of the economy, 52% to 39%, and disapproves of his handling of foreign affairs, 55% to 36%.

When asked which party they lean toward in this fall’s House elections, voters are almost equally divided, with 44% favoring the Democrats and 43% the Republicans--a result that points toward heavy losses this November from the Democratic congressional majorities. Democrats have generally led by much wider margins on this question.

By 35% to 33%, those polled see Republicans as the party best able to handle the nation’s major problems--a small difference, but the first time in Clinton’s presidency in which the Times Poll has found Republicans holding an edge on that question.

The poll, supervised by Times Poll Director John Brennan, surveyed 1,340 adults nationwide Tuesday and Wednesday, Sept. 20 and 21. The results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

While Clinton has derived no benefit from events in Haiti, former President Jimmy Carter appears to have improved markedly in public esteem. A decade ago, with then-President Ronald Reagan using bitter memories of Carter’s performance in office as the foil for his “Morning in America” reelection campaign, Americans by 48% to 44% had an unfavorable view of Carter. Now, after several years of attention to his domestic charitable works and his international diplomacy--and in the wake of his negotiations in Haiti and Korea--the public views Carter favorably by a 68%-14% margin.

His support extends even to self-identified conservatives, 65% to 21%, and Republicans, 60% to 26%. Americans believe Carter had significant influence on the negotiations, with 71% saying he had either a “great deal” or a “good amount” of influence, while only 16% said they thought he did not have much influence.

A second member of Carter’s negotiating team, retired Gen. Colin L. Powell, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is similarly popular, 65% to 6%, with 29% saying they do not know enough about him to say. By comparison, the public’s overall impression of Clinton, as opposed to his job performance, is only marginally favorable, 50% to 47%.

The public approval of Carter comes even though the poll shows considerable doubts about the agreement he negotiated. Nearly half of those polled, 49%, believe the deal is “too lenient” on Haiti’s military leaders. Only 5% think it is too harsh, while 38% say it is “about right.” Americans also have little confidence that the Haitian military will abide by the agreement--54% say they are doubtful about compliance, 30% express some confidence, and only 9% say they are very confident.

Americans also do not accept a key part of Carter’s description of how the negotiations happened. When asked if Clinton’s decision to launch warplanes while the negotiations were going on “helped bring Haiti’s military leaders to terms,” as the Administration maintains, or “endangered the talks,” as Carter says, 50% say the launch helped. Only 19% believe the launch endangered the talks, while 22% say the move had little effect one way or the other.

A large majority of those polled report that they have been “closely following” events in Haiti, with 32% saying they are paying “very close” attention and another 52% saying they have been following events there “somewhat closely.”

When asked if they believe American troops “will be able to finish their job and withdraw from Haiti in a fairly timely fashion,” only 32% say yes. A majority, 54%, say they fear American forces will get “bogged down” in Haiti. Nonetheless, Americans are sharply divided on whether Clinton should “immediately set a definite date for the withdrawal of all U.S. forces,” with 47% saying he should, while 48% say the President should be “allowed some flexibility” on that subject.

Overall, the public does not expect high casualties in Haiti. Only 6% say they believe casualties will be heavy, while 70% believe casualties will be light or none at all. Another 19% expect moderate casualties. But whatever the casualty expectations, only 35% say they accept the argument that the United States has “vital interests” in Haiti, while 54% say no vital interests are at stake and 11% are unsure. Clinton has made defense of U.S. interests a key argument in favor of his Haiti policy.

Black Americans are far more likely than whites to agree with Clinton that American vital interests are at stake in Haiti. Blacks agree, 51% to 37%, while whites disagree, 32% to 56%. Blacks are also somewhat more likely to support U.S. military intervention in Haiti. By 56% to 44%, blacks approve of Clinton’s decision to send troops to Haiti. Whites disapprove, 41% to 54%.

A wider racial gulf shows up on the question of whether the U.S. should provide economic aid to Haiti after democracy is restored. Blacks favor economic aid, 68% to 22%, while whites oppose the idea, 45% to 50%. Overall, 49% of Americans favor aid, 46% oppose it.

Despite those signs of racial division, however, majorities of both blacks and whites reject the argument that Administration policy toward Haiti has been significantly affected by the fact that Haiti has an overwhelmingly black population.

Majorities of both whites, 72%, and blacks, 57%, say that Haitians’ race has had “little effect” on Administration policy. Those whites who did think race played a role mostly think the impact has been for Haiti to receive more favorable treatment--16% of whites take that view, while only 2% think the opposite. Among blacks, opinion is more split, with 14% thinking Haiti received more favorable treatment because of race and 18% thinking the treatment has been less favorable.

Blacks are also somewhat more likely than whites to believe that Haiti will be successful in achieving a “stable democracy”--although doubters outnumber believers among both groups. Overall, 62% of Americans, and of whites as well, say they are “doubtful” that Haiti can achieve a stable democracy, and only 32% are confident it will.

Among blacks, 48% say they are doubtful, and 45% say they are confident about Haiti’s prospects for democracy. Republicans are far more skeptical than either Democrats or independents on that subject. Only 19% of Republicans say they are confident that stable democracy can be established in Haiti.

Given that skepticism, it is not surprising that Americans are not enamored of Clinton’s argument that the need to “restore democracy” justifies a U.S. military presence in Haiti. Only 45% of those polled say they think that was a good argument, while 47% said it was not good. Similarly, those polled reject, 53% to 40%, the argument that the need to maintain U.S. credibility justified intervention.

By contrast, Americans do support the argument that the military presence is needed to “keep a flood of Haitian refugees from seeking to enter the United States.” By 57% to 39%, those polled say that was a good argument.

The most widely supported argument in favor of intervention, however, is the need to “stop the human right abuses by the current military government.” By a 64%-32% margin, those polled say that was a good argument.

Making Sense of Haiti

Although most Americans approve of the agreement that the United States signed with Haiti’s military leaders. . .

Approve: 67%

Disapprove: 27%

Don’t know: 6%

. . .they are not as confident about the outcome of the U.S. mission in that Caribbean nation.

Are you confident or doubtful that the Haitian military leaders will abide by the agreement and step down by Oct. 15?

Confident: 39%

Doubtful: 54%

Don’t know: 7%

Do you think U.S. troops will be able to finish their job and withdraw from Haiti or will they get bogged down?

Withdraw in timely fashion: 32%

Get bogged down: 54%

Don’t know: 14%

While Clinton’s job approval rating continues to slide. . .

Approve: 42%

Disapprove: 52%

Don’t know: 6%

. . . former President Jimmy Carter and Colin L. Powell received favorable marks.

Carter:

Favorable: 68%

Unfavorable: 14%

Don’t know: 18%

*

Powell:

Favorable: 65%

Unfavorable: 6%

Don’t know: 29%

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Times Poll interviewed 1,340 adults nationwide, by telephone, Sept. 20 and 21. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age and education. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain sub-groups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.