Home Sales Tumble for 2nd Month : Real estate: Housing prices continue to fall. But analysts point out that transactions for the 11 months are up 14.7% over last year.
After a yearlong rebound, the real estate market in Ventura County stalled in November for the second consecutive month as prices continued their stubborn fall, according to a report released last week.
In fact, for the first time in a year, the number of homes sold countywide in a given month actually dropped below the number sold in the same period the preceding year.
Yet analysts note that housing sales this year are up 14.7% over the same 11-month period in 1993, indicating that the market has not been appreciably blunted by the steady creep of interest rates--yet.
“I think the positives that you see in the economy are outweighing the negative impacts of the interest rates,” said Nima Nattagh, an analyst with Riverside-based TRW-REDI Property Data, which compiled the housing report.
“The caveat is that we are obviously basing our analysis on trends so far this year,” Nattagh added. “If interest rates continue to go up, I think there would be a real danger of a further flattening of purchase activity.”
Distracted by the holidays, people historically defer such momentous decisions as selling or buying a house until after the first of the year, so the markets cool accordingly, said Bob Edwards, president of the Oxnard Harbor Assn. of Realtors.
“People are thinking of Christmas and other things now,” he said. “They’re more interested in automobiles and children’s toys.”
Despite the year-to-date increase in sales, housing prices have continued to slip countywide, dipping from an average of $232,490 per home in October to $226,287 in November--a drop of 2.7%.
Similarly, in November, 1993, the average sales price of homes was about $7,772 higher than those sold last month. Year-to-date prices in the county have dropped 1.9% from the same period in 1993.
“One reason is that the supply is still at a fairly high level, and demand hasn’t reached the point where it will result in price appreciation,” Nattagh said.
*
Another reason, he added, is foreclosure sales that flooded markets with properties that lenders discounted because of their eagerness to sell.
“That would have an effect of dragging down the values,” he said, but he noted that anecdotal evidence indicates that foreclosure rates have flattened, boding well for homeowners eager to see their properties appreciate.
“I think the market is in a healing state,” said Judy Hoag, president of the Ventura Assn. of Realtors. “But I think it is in a healthy healing state because it’s not going too fast.”
Last month, 747 homes were sold countywide, 17 more than were sold in October but nine fewer than the number sold a year ago. Notable pockets of activity were in Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Camarillo, Oxnard and Ventura, where several tracts are being built for first-time buyers.
“For quite a few years, we had no brand-new housing in Ventura,” Hoag said, “but when you get new housing, you have to turn over existing housing also . . . because people are moving up.”
Throughout Southern California, real estate trends are the same as those in Ventura County: a two-month slowdown but an overall rise, 15.2%, over the sales activity during the first 11 months of 1993. Orange County enjoyed the highest rate of annual increase: 19.1%.
“The region’s housing recovery has been led by entry-level buyers who have not been deterred by rising interest rates,” said Nattagh, an economist.
So far this year, according to the report, 53.1% of the homes sold in the six Southland counties were priced at less than $175,000, compared with 51.7% over the same period last year.
Declining housing prices and low interest rates certainly helped first-time buyers into the market, Hoag said, but she added that these factors stimulate the demand--and therefore prices--for more expensive homes as sellers capitalize on their equity to move up.
But increased interest rates loom ahead. On Dec. 7, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan signaled that he might have to ratchet up interest rates again--the seventh time since February--to forestall inflation. The national average for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 9.25% in November, a jump of 2.51% from the 25-year low of 6.74% in October, 1993.
“Of course, I would hope he doesn’t do that,” said Mary Hall, president of the Conejo Valley Assn. of Realtors.
(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)
Ventura County Home Sales
November 1994 November 1993 ZIP Code Total Sales Avg. Price Total Sales Avg. Price CAMARILLO 93010 63 $216,262 34 $231,506 93012 21 $288,952 24 $265,325 93066 4 $361,333 3 FILLMORE 93015 7 $192,143 8 $171,813 MOORPARK 93021 44 $240,881 62 $226,811 OAK PARK 91301 42 $288,432 33 $292,734 OAK VIEW 93022 4 $159,875 4 $154,375 OJAI 93023 12 $218,871 21 $204,825 OXNARD 93030 55 $177,114 73 $222,267 93033 25 $147,540 22 $148,238 93035 27 $262,327 35 $252,742 PORT HUENEME 93040 2 $123,750 0 0 93041 17 $133,971 27 $158,111 SANTA PAULA 93060 24 $161,708 18 $141,353 SIMI VALLEY 93063 51 $186,406 51 $196,108 93065 95 $190,383 82 $202,570 BELL CANYON 91307 1 $445,000 4 $432,000 THOUSAND OAKS 91320 34 $248,368 29 $254,724 91360 55 $224,607 50 $249,890 91361 17 $315,933 27 $353,037 91362 54 $369,263 42 $379,805 VENTURA 93001 22 $188,357 29 $250,389 93003 39 $209,667 47 $187,140 93004 30 $239,153 31 $214,276 COUNTYWIDE 747 $226,287 758 $234,059
Source: TRW-REDI Property Data, Inc.
