Crunch Time Draws Near for California

Now we will see what it’s like at crunch time to be “led” by a Speaker without a party--and by an absent, distracted governor.

Assembly Speaker Doris Allen--installed by Democrats and loathed by fellow Republicans who want her recalled--soon will face the task of “delivering” GOP votes for Gov. Pete Wilson’s $56-billion state budget. That would be comical if it were not so pathetic and potentially threatening to the flow of state services.

At present, Allen perhaps could deliver two, three, certainly not more than a handful of hungry Republicans for a luncheon recess.

That is why when the new Speaker called on Wilson last week to convene “big five” budget negotiations, he promptly brushed her off. The “big five” consists of the governor, the Speaker, the Senate leader and the minority leaders of both houses. They negotiate for their followers. But Allen would be negotiating only for herself. So Wilson made it a “big six,” adding Allen’s rival, Jim Brulte, and describing him--in a slap at Allen--as the Assembly GOP’s “duly elected leader.”

But they haven’t yet met to negotiate. We are just two days away from the start of the new fiscal year, the legal deadline for enactment of a budget, and there is no sense of urgency in the Capitol.

The Assembly, mired in an ugly power struggle, has not even passed its version of a budget. The Senate at least did that, providing the rationale for a two-house conference committee to begin drafting a “compromise.” The committee is crawling and droning. The governor ostensibly is waiting politely for the committee to conclude its work before he convenes the “big six.”

But most legislators just assume Wilson’s head is off in Iowa, New Hampshire and other presidential primary states. Sacramento is an annoyance. He is not focused on passing a budget expeditiously and keeping California’s government afloat.

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Compared to recent years, this budget seems a snap to settle. Legislators must close a revenue gap of only $1.8 billion, and they reportedly have whittled that figure already to below $1 billion.

The main issues are Wilson’s proposed income tax cut, money for K-12 schools and college fees, cuts in welfare, Medi-Cal and aid for the aged, blind and disabled, and big spending for prisons (remember “three strikes?”).

The obvious solution: Forget the tax cut. Compromise on schools. Nick prisons. Assume tax revenues will come in higher than previously projected and that President Clinton and Congress send a lot of immigration money. This takes the pressure off welfare mothers, old people and the disabled.

“It’s all phony crap,” notes veteran Senate GOP Leader Ken Maddy of Fresno. “But it’s doable. If the economy picks up, you’re out of it. If it doesn’t, you’re sucking wind anyway.”

The only real question for the governor and legislators is whether they want to settle or fight. Right now, they resemble opposing armies sizing up each other from distant hills.

Wilson is assessing how much he would gain nationally by being perceived as a fighter for tax cuts, versus the damage of being seen as a weak leader who couldn’t get a budget passed. A prolonged deadlock with interrupted services would make California look like it was going even deeper into the tank.

Democrats are gauging what it would cost them to stick it to Wilson. “He’s a standing target,” one key staffer says. Everybody would be hurt by a stubborn stalemate, but the governor probably would suffer the most.

That wouldn’t bother many legislators, including some Republicans.

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It’s not normal politics, but personal animosities that have polluted the Assembly. A male lawmaker flips an obscene gesture at a female colleague. The Speaker cuts off a critic’s mike. Members snipe like couples heading for divorce, arguing inanely before the kids. In this case, the kids are up in the balcony watching with their tourist parents.

“When I came up here as a very young staffer 25 years ago there’d be people drunk on the [Assembly] floor, but at least the place ran,” recalls legislative historian Tony Quinn. “There was nothing like this. They didn’t shock the schoolchildren.”

“The mood,” says veteran Assemblyman Richard Katz (D-Sylmar), “is something you can’t print in a family newspaper. This is worse than I’ve ever seen. There’s nothing happening here that doesn’t reinforce people’s preconceived notions about the Legislature: It gets caught up in squabbling; it can’t pass a budget. . . .”

Two days until the budget deadline and the Assembly is leaderless. And the governor doesn’t even know whether this weekend he’ll be in his office or in New Hampshire.