NEWS ANALYSIS : Accord Doesn’t Signal the End of Budget Fight

Sunday’s skeletal agreement between the White House and the Republican leaders of Congress to reopen the government and balance the federal books is not the end of the partisan battle of the budget. It is only the beginning.

The two sides, locked in a bitter ideological dispute over spending priorities and the role of government, in essence pledged only to begin talking about how to resolve their differences.

There is no assurance of ultimate accord. But Sunday night’s cease-fire at least allows the battlefield to be cleared of the innocent casualties of the last week’s fight: about 800,000 furloughed government employees and the millions of taxpayers who depend on their services.

The two-paragraph document provides only the vaguest of frameworks for the coming negotiations: President Clinton and congressional leaders commit themselves to producing a budget plan that balances the federal budget over the next seven years while “protecting” Medicare, Medicaid, education and other government programs.

The agreement has no legal force and only sets the stage for battles to come.

“More than anything else, this just preserves everyone’s options as the negotiations begin,” said senior White House adviser George Stephanopoulos. “It ensures that both sides enter the talks on equal footing.”

Clinton and White House officials expressed satisfaction that Republican leaders had accepted his demand that popular programs be “preserved” even as both sides work toward a smaller federal government and a balanced federal budget.

“Tonight represents the first sign of their willingness to move forward without forcing unacceptable cuts in health care, education and the environment on the American people,” Clinton said.

But just as Clinton reserved the right to block any budget plan that did not measure up to his “values,” neither did the Republicans make any enforceable commitment to hold Medicare premiums at current levels or increase spending for Clinton’s cherished domestic priorities.

“Nothing’s agreed to; everything’s agreed to,” a White House official said. “It means what we decide it means.”

The presidential aide also said Sunday’s accord guarantees nothing when the two sides begin budget negotiations in earnest after Thanksgiving.

“Look how hard it was to get this--and it doesn’t mean anything,” the aide said.

Predictably, Republicans on Capitol Hill portrayed the agreement as a victory because for the first time, it made Clinton agree in writing to balance the budget in seven years.

They also said Clinton’s position weakened after more than 50 House Democrats indicated that they would be willing to vote along with the Republican majority if Clinton continued to resist efforts to balance the budget and slow the growth of entitlement spending.

A Republican source on Capitol Hill, gloating over what he described as a trap into which Clinton walked willingly, said the agreement in effect committed the President to signing a new budget resolution containing the key Republican goal: a seven-year plan to balance the budget based on Congressional Budget Office figures.

“This is the beginning of a negotiation on the details, but the framework of seven years, with real, honest numbers is clear,” he said.

The negotiators will use as their working document the massive GOP budget reconciliation bill, likely to be completed today in Congress and sent quickly to Clinton, who has promised to veto it. That bill would slash projected spending growth for Medicare, hand control of welfare, Medicaid and other social programs over to the states and provide a $500-per-child tax credit for most families.

Republicans were also cheered by Clinton’s apparent acceptance of the Congressional Budget Office’s more conservative forecasts, which will require deeper spending cuts to achieve a balanced budget than would be needed if the Administration’s more optimistic numbers were used.

“I think it is one of the great historic achievements in modern America,” said House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.). “And I think every family is going to have a better Thanksgiving because we really are now looking out for the children of America, and we really are providing them a chance to have a future in which they’re not going to be crushed by debt and taxation and high interest rates.”

But analysts were not so sure.

“This is more complex than anyone wants to admit,” said Robert D. Reischauer, former head of the budget office.

Economic growth is certainly a central part of the picture, but so too are inflation and interest rates, Reischauer said.

White House aides were quick to note that Clinton agreed to use the budget office numbers only after a “thorough consultation and review” with Administration and private economists.

In all, the accord is a squishy document that does nothing to narrow the deep divisions over Medicare and Medicaid, welfare reform, education spending and tax policy. The two sides remain as far apart as ever on these trillion-dollar questions.

“It’s a bit of a stretch to call this a historic development,” White House Press Secretary Mike McCurry said. “What it does is allow everyone to declare victory and go home for Thanksgiving.”