Shutdown Interrupts Flow of Data : Budget: Disruption may affect Fed’s decision today on interest rates, analysts say.

For the second time in as many months, the flow of U.S. economic data is being disrupted by a partial government shutdown. It won’t prevent the Federal Reserve Board’s policy-setting committee from meeting today, but the impasse may keep it from lowering interest rates, analysts said.

“We had a huge calendar of numbers the markets and the Fed could have used, and they’re just not there,” said Tom Carpenter, chief economist with ASB Capital Management in Washington, which manages $6 billion in bonds. Carpenter said he believes the Fed will take no action today.

“When there’s no compelling sentiment that they should do anything, they usually don’t,” he said.

Still, many analysts are convinced that a cut is just a matter of time--and that the longer the central bank waits, the bigger the cut is likely to be. The Federal Open Market Committee could decide to leave the overnight bank loan rate unchanged at 5.75%. If it does, investors are convinced, a cut in the so-called federal funds rate will be all but inevitable when the committee next meets, on Jan. 30.

To be sure, the evidence of an economic slowdown may be compelling enough to induce the Fed to cut even if there is no budget accord.

Employment growth has slowed and industrial production rose just 0.2% in November, mostly because of a rise in utility output because of cold weather. Business inventories are bulging as home and auto sales have weakened, and most retailers are not singing the praises of this year’s holiday shoppers.

Scott Brown, an economist at Raymond James & Associates of St. Petersburg, Fla., said he continues to expect a cut of a quarter of a percentage point in the overnight bank lending rate because “the Fed should be looking ahead.”

“Monetary policy has been restrictive for some time now,” Brown said. “Economic growth is soft enough. Inflationary pressures are low enough.”

Commerce Department indicators scheduled for release this week--the third-quarter gross domestic product, November housing starts, October merchandise trade and October-November personal income and spending reports--will be pushed off until the government reopens, said Everett Ehrlich, the department’s undersecretary for economic affairs. A revised schedule of releases will be issued after the shutdown ends.

Labor Department officials said the shutdown will also probably postpone release of weekly initial jobless claims data, which had been scheduled for Thursday. The survey used to compile a portion of the December employment report--due out Jan. 5--was conducted last week, which reduces the chance of a delay in the monthly report, said Philip Rones, chief of labor force statistics at the Bureal of Labor Statistics.

Still, if the shutdown drags on long enough, the report’s could be issued late. The same could happen with the release of the December consumer price index. Compiling that index involves surveying consumer prices throughout the month, bureau spokeswoman Kathy Hoyle said.

Not all economic data is subject to a delay, however. The Treasury will release its November budget statement Thursday as planned.