Will Dole Play It Safe or Roll Dice on VP Choice?

He doesn’t play poker or frequent the racetrack, but Bob Dole has become something of a gambling man in his bid for the White House. At least, that’s the image he’s cultivating.

Time and again, Dole utters phrases like “a roll of the dice,” “risking all” and “betting the farm” while relishing how he surprised so many people--including key aides, advisors and longtime colleagues--with some of his most important campaign decisions to date, most notably resigning from the Senate.

But with only two days to go before the planned revelation of his most important decision yet--the choice of a running mate--the burning question is whether Dole is truly a high-roller who will unveil a surprise pick or if he plays it safe and settles for one of the handful of white males who remain on his short list.

As of Wednesday, the list was down to Michigan Gov. John Engler, Sens. Connie Mack of Florida and John McCain of Arizona and former Gov. Carroll A. Campbell Jr. of South Carolina, senior campaign officials said.

Although each has distinctive qualities, none would seem likely to spark an immediate surge of support for the GOP ticket. One top campaign official unenthusiastically referred to the finalists as “interchangeable.”

And Dole is known to be less than 100% happy with any of the four. Given this--and Dole’s penchant for the unexpected--some aides speculate that he may opt for someone off the carefully crafted list, someone whom he might regard as “electric.”

These prospects, sources said, include former Secretary of State James A. Baker III, former Education Secretary William J. Bennett, former Defense Secretaries Donald F. Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney and former Housing Secretary Jack Kemp.

The name of Kemp, one of the most consistent proponents of supply-side economics, has surfaced in the wake of Dole’s embrace earlier this week of an economic plan calling for an across-the-board 15% cut in income tax rates to spur growth.

Speculating that Dole may opt for a surprise choice, one ranking campaign official said Wednesday: “There still may be something in the tall grass.”

Dole, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, is scheduled to publicly announce his pick on Saturday afternoon in his native Russell, Kan.

Campaign aides and most of his confidants fully expect to be kept in the dark until the eleventh hour. Also, some senior aides fear he will not adhere to the scheduled announcement time and place and, instead, disclose his decision on his own terms.

“I think he’s probably close [to a final decision],” said Sheila Burke, a key Dole advisor who has worked for him for two decades, including as his Senate chief of staff. “But I have no idea who it will be. I honestly don’t think anybody knows. He’ll tell us when he’s ready to.”

And so, along with the rest of the political universe, Dole’s inner circle can only speculate, secure in the knowledge that the 73-year-old former senator likely will make the call in virtual solitude. If past patterns hold, he will discuss the intricacies of the decision with his wife, Elizabeth, but perhaps no one else.

“He’s one of those people who absorbs good information. . . . But in the end, it’s not a team, but Bob Dole, who makes the decision,” Campbell said in a recent interview.

Earlier in the summer, Dole told reporters his choice “has got to be somebody I know, somebody I can work with, somebody who can be fairly compatible with my philosophy.” And he added: “It will be a surprise--but hopefully not to me.”

One longtime Dole aide, who asked for anonymity, said he believed that Dole would play it safe.

Conservative activist David H. Keene, another longtime Dole advisor, said the nominee-to-be “is willing to take chances in terms of the outcome of something that he thinks he has a chance of winning. But he would first have to convince himself that this could work and will work--because he doesn’t operate on chance alone.”

That said, Keene also is betting on a safe choice. “You’re not going to get something that no one expects,” he said. “I just don’t think that’s going to happen.”

Times political writer Ronald Brownstein contributed to this story.