Voters Backing Casinos, Added Cigarette Tax

California voters appear ready to sanction casino-type gambling on the state’s Indian lands and slap more tax on cigarettes to pay for early childhood development programs, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

At the same time, voters are less clear on whether they will grant themselves a utilities rate cut and force utilities to bear the full cost of debts associated with energy deregulation.

In partisan races, at least two incumbent Republicans, Secretary of State Bill Jones and Insurance Commissioner Chuck Quackenbush, face potentially strong challenges by, respectively, Democrats Michela Alioto and Diane Martinez.

Two Democratic state officeholders, Controller Kathleen Connell and state schools chief Delaine Eastin, are having an easier time against, respectively, Republicans Ruben Barrales and Gloria Matta Tuchman.

Three other statewide contests--for lieutenant governor, attorney general and treasurer--are essentially dead even.

However, typical for this stage of the campaign, these so-called down-ballot races are drawing little notice, as are the other nine largely uncontroversial and even arcane initiatives on the Nov. 3 ballot.

Asked their motivation for going to the polls, 35% of registered voters cited the assortment of statewide contests, 32% said there is no one thing to spur them to vote and 18% cited the closely matched governor’s race between Republican Dan Lungren and Democrat Gray Davis.

The highest-profile initiative on the ballot and the one most familiar to registered voters was Proposition 5, dealing with Indian gaming. The focus of tens of millions of dollars of TV advertising, the measure would amend California law to allow casino-type gambling on tribal lands.

After hearing a description of the measure, 57% of registered voters supported Proposition 5, 28% were opposed and 15% were undecided. Seventy-two percent of those who said they have visited an Indian casino supported the initiative, as did 52% of those who have never been.

Similarly, 71% of frequent gamblers and 63% of occasional gamblers backed the measure, as did 57% of those who rarely gamble and 51% who abstain.

“The pro-Proposition 5 forces, basing their arguments on economic development and Indian self-sufficiency, have clearly done the better job so far of making their case,” said Susan Pinkus, director of the Times Poll.

Also winning early voter support is Proposition 10, which would raise cigarette taxes 50 cents a pack to finance early childhood development programs. After hearing a description of the measure, 54% of registered voters backed it, 35% were opposed and 11% were undecided.

Voters were more evenly divided on Proposition 9, the electric utilities initiative. The measure would rewrite the state’s electricity deregulation law to require a 20% rate cut and prevent utilities from charging customers $28 billion for the cost of nuclear plants and long-term purchase contracts.

After hearing a description of the measure, 36% of registered voters supported Proposition 9, 21% were opposed and 43% were undecided.

In the partisan contests, much seems to depend on who turns out on Nov. 3--an uncertain guess, given the current unsettled political climate. Moreover, most of the candidates on both sides--including incumbents--are largely a mystery to voters at this point.

In the race for lieutenant governor, state Assemblyman Cruz Bustamante (D-Fresno) leads state Sen. Tim Leslie (R-Tahoe City) 29% to 22% among registered voters. Among likely voters, however, the race was a statistical tie, with Leslie at 29% and Bustamante at 28%.

Similarly, in the race for attorney general, state Sen. Bill Lockyer (D-Hayward) leads Chief Deputy Atty. Gen. Dave Stirling, the GOP nominee, 31% to 25% among registered voters, but they are virtually tied, 31% to 30%, among likely voters.

In the race for treasurer, the contest is even among both registered and likely voters. Among registered voters, Democrat Phil Angelides has 27% support to 25% for state Assemblyman Curt Pringle (R-Garden Grove.) Pringle was slightly ahead among likely voters, 30% to 27%.

Two Republican incumbents could face tough reelection fights, depending on turnout.

Insurance Commissioner Quackenbush was essentially tied with state Assemblywoman Martinez (D-Monterey Park) among registered voters, 36% to 35%, but led by 42% to 34% among likely voters.

At the same time, Secretary of State Jones drew 28% to Alioto’s 30% among registered voters, but held a 34% to 29% lead among likely voters.

Two incumbent Democrats, Controller Connell and Supt. of Public Instruction Eastin, were more comfortably ahead in their reelection bids.

Connell led San Mateo County Supervisor Barrales 38% to 22% among registered voters and 40% to 27% among likely voters. Eastin led Santa Ana teacher Matta Tuchman 24% to 10% among registered voters and 27% to 11% in the race for the nonpartisan office.

The Times Poll interviewed 1,651 Californians, including 1,270 registered voters, by telephone Sept. 12-17. Among them, 684 were deemed likely to vote. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points for registered voters and 4 percentage points for likely voters.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Ballot Propositions

Registered voters were asked how they would vote on three iniatives that will appear on this November’s ballot if the election were held today:

Prop. 5: Indian gaming

Yes: 43%

No: 18%

Don’t know*: 39%

****

Prop. 9: Electric utilities

Yes: 4%

No: 14%

Don’t know*: 83%

****

Prop. 10: Tobaco surtax

Yes: 18%

No: 11%

Don’t know*: 71%

****

After they were read the ballot descriptions of the three propositions, here’s how they said they would vote:

Prop. 5: Indian gaming

Yes: 57%

No: 28%

Don’t know*: 15%

****

Prop. 9: Electronic utilities

Yes: 36%

No: 28%

Don’t know*: 15%

****

Prop. 10: Tobacco surtax

Yes: 54%

No: 35%

Don’t know*: 11%

Note: Results include those who said they were “leaning toward” voting for or against a porposition.

* “Don’t know” includes “Haven’t heard enough about it to say.”

Sources: L.A. Times Poll

Times Poll results are also available at https://www.latimes.com/timespoll

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,651 Californians, including 1,270 registered voters, by telephone Sept. 12-17. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample and for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Although Asian Americans were interviewed and included in the sample, there were not enough of this group to break out separately.