Debate Gives Key Challenger Momentum in Mexico’s Presidential Race

With opinion surveys showing him the clear winner of a key presidential debate, opposition challenger Vicente Fox got a major push Wednesday in his quest to overtake the ruling party front-runner and give Mexico its first change of government in 71 years.

Nine polls taken immediately after the debate broadcast Tuesday night gave Fox, of the center-right National Action Party, the edge over the ruling party’s Francisco Labastida by margins ranging from 14 to as much as 40 percentage points.

Fox used the first debate of the presidential campaign to appeal to voters to end the Institutional Revolutionary Party’s seven decades of unbroken rule, comparing his campaign to that of Nelson Mandela in South Africa and Lech Walesa in Poland. Labastida, for his part, argued that he was the candidate of “change with direction,” and suggested that Fox lacks the character to be a national leader.

In recent weeks, Fox has narrowed the gap in most polls to a few percentage points, making the campaign the closest in Mexican history. Fox had looked to the debate for fresh momentum, and he appeared to have found it.

Labastida downplayed the unfavorable debate survey results in post-mortem interviews Wednesday, saying, “Many polls are being conducted to give publicity to candidates, [and] the polls are rapidly losing their credibility.”

But Fox pointed happily to signs that not only had he won the debate handily but that a significant percentage of voters may have changed their minds and decided to vote for him because of what they had seen and heard.

In an unscientific telephone call-in to Televisa network, 25% of the 11,000 callers said they were changing their votes because of the debate. “Given our 2-1 margin in the polls on the debate, it seems some of those changed votes are coming our way,” Fox told a television interviewer.

The surveys, mostly focused in urban areas and based on up to 1,000 telephone interviews each, showed that about 40% of Mexican adults watched the debate, the first of two before the July 2 election.

A poll conducted by Universal newspaper found that 54% of viewers felt that Fox won the debate, compared with 30% for Labastida. Of those surveyed, 45% said they felt that Fox was the most sincere of the six presidential candidates in the debate, against 22% for Labastida.

The other four candidates barely registered in the post-debate polls. Reforma newspaper’s survey gave Fox 44% to Labastida’s 14%. Leftist candidate Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, a three-time presidential contender, had just 7%, it said.

Fox appealed in the debate to Cardenas and the other minor candidates to join his campaign and defeat the PRI with a common front. Previous attempts to form a united opposition alliance have deadlocked.

Fox, a former Coca-Cola executive on leave from his post as governor of Guanajuato state, also declared himself to be ahead in the election polls, an assertion that angered Labastida.

“I am content . . . [with the debate results] but a little worried because I heard many lies, especially from Fox when he said he is leading in the polls,” Labastida said. “There have been 25 polls, and 23 of them put me in first place. This is obviously a lie.”

Labastida’s unusually aggressive style in the debate may have backfired, according to the surveys. Fox, meanwhile, traded his cowboy image for a more sober, presidential appearance.

poll by the daily newspaper Milenio found that most viewers felt that L

astida was the most negative.

Reforma newspaper said in an editorial that “the PRI candidate committed the strategic error of launching his offensive just as he was criticizing the worst attacks that he had received from Fox. Labastida realized too late that he had entered the cockfight ring with the best-trained rooster.”