Opposition Gains Edge in Taiwan

The opposition scored a surprise victory in legislative elections here Saturday, a development expected to blunt President Chen Shui-bian’s pro-independence agenda and ease fears in Beijing.

“We didn’t work hard enough. We didn’t get enough public support,” Chen told reporters shortly after the results were announced. “I apologize and accept full responsibility.”

Chen’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party and its allies had predicted a gain of 13 seats, which would lead to their first absolute majority and end the recent legislative logjam.

Instead, the opposition managed to rally supporters to maintain a razor-thin majority in Taiwan’s 225-member legislature, reversing a series of recent electoral slides. Opposition officials touted the outcome as a check on Chen’s aggressive behavior.

“We’re very, very happy today,” said Ma Ying-jeou, the mayor of Taipei, the capital, and a rising star in the Nationalist Party. “It will be good for Taiwan’s future and good for political stability.”

Beijing, which tends to carefully mull developments in Taiwan, did not immediately react to the news, although it immediately reported the results on state media. But analysts said China would welcome anything that frustrated Chen and his allies. The communist country considers Taiwan part of its territory and has vowed to use military force if the island declares independence.

“I think this is a good thing for cross-straits relations,” said Su Chi, international affairs director with the Nationalist Party. “It will reduce China’s anxiety. They should be pretty happy.”

Others said the results could lead to improved relations with the mainland and the United States if Chen interpreted them as a popular call for a more conciliatory approach.

“We may see a window of opportunity,” said Andrew Yang, secretary-general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a think tank in Taipei. “The choice is in his hands.”

In the pro-independence, pan-green camp, the ruling DPP secured 89 seats, up by two, while the Taiwan Solidarity Union had 12 seats, down by one. On the opposition pan-blue side, which favors greater accommodation with Beijing, the Nationalists secured 79 seats, up by 11; the People First Party had 34 seats, a loss of 12; and the New Party held steady at one. Ten seats went to independents.

Both sides received support from their core constituencies but failed to attract swing voters, analysts said, in effect preserving the status quo.

“There was also talk of the electorate becoming increasingly disenchanted,” said J. Bruce Jacobs, a professor of Asian studies at Australia’s Monash University. “Taiwan has too many elections.”

Voter turnout in Taiwan’s 29 electoral districts was 59%, several percentage points lower than usual, despite fine weather and a hotly contested election. The Chen camp arguably fielded too many candidates and failed to ensure that the votes were well distributed under the highly complex proportional representation system, resulting in the election of several weak newcomers as popular incumbents lost. And it appeared to fall short in mobilizing its supporters.

“We were overconfident,” said Lee Ying-yuan, the ruling party’s deputy secretary.

But the Nationalists also did a lot of things right. Bracing for a loss, they got out more of their supporters around the island, introduced party primaries to select candidates and imposed greater party discipline.

“We learned from our past mistakes and were very cautious about who we nominated,” said Liao Fung-teh, a Nationalist Party strategist.

Shortly after the results were announced, Chen announced that he would step down as ruling party chairman to take responsibility for the weak showing. The party’s general secretary and two deputies also tendered their resignations.

The Nationalists flexed their newfound muscles by calling on Chen to replace the prime minister with their own candidate, a move the president will probably resist.

A Chen aide said the president still planned to reform the island’s constitution after holding a referendum, a step viewed warily by Beijing and some in Taiwan.

“I don’t like him,” said Fei Yu-su, 70, a retired soldier in Taipei who voted blue. “I’m worried he’ll drag us into a war.”

Analysts said they expected Taiwan to continue forging an identity distinct from China’s.

“In certain ways, we’re all Chinese,” said Chiu Chuei-teh, 68, a retired teacher from Taipei’s Wan Hun district, who voted pan-green. “But I certainly don’t feel communist Chinese.”

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Magnier is a Times staff writer and Tsai is a special correspondent.