Schwarzenegger’s Sharp Stick

Strike the sunny day and cue the lightning and thunder.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger last week found some new money for transportation and local government. After a little crowing about his budget revisions, he and some Democratic leaders cheerfully promised to work together to deliver a final budget before the July 1 start of the new fiscal year, a rarity in recent years.

Then on Monday, Schwarzenegger’s chief political consultant said the governor had directed his political staff to go ahead with preparations for a special election this fall to consider Schwarzenegger-backed budget reform and other proposals. A special election is guaranteed to wreck what relationship he has with the Legislature. There would be little to no chance of a budget agreement.

The consultant also hinted that Schwarzenegger might support a ballot initiative that would make it more difficult for public employee unions to raise campaign funds from their members. That’s like waving a red flag in front of the Democrats, who draw much of their support from the unions. In a matter of days, the rhetorical battle between the governor and legislative leaders, particularly Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez (D-Los Angeles), has escalated nastily.

If this year’s budget situation was so “fantastic” on Friday, what’s the urgency three days later for a special election? UC Berkeley political science professor Bruce Cain has the answer: Prospects for winning votes in a special election are better if the public is gripped by an air of crisis.

Schwarzenegger may only be goading Democrats to more concessions with the special election as a sharp stick. He still has about three weeks to cancel the idea. The depressing alternative is that he really wanted the election all along, confident his popular persona would rally the people to his causes. A victory in November would boost his prospects for seeking and winning a second term.

Democrats aren’t helping themselves by being so publicly confrontational, even if they think they can prevail in a special election with their own slate of union and consumer-friendly ballot initiatives.

There is no actual urgency for a special election. The keystone of Schwarzenegger’s ballot initiatives, budget reform, almost certainly would have no effect on the next budget. His legislative redistricting initiative cannot be put into operation in time for the 2006 election, according to his own secretary of state. Both items would be just as timely on the regular June 2006 ballot as in a $70-million special election in November.

A special election thus becomes a mere exercise of political brawn. No matter which side gets lucky, the big loser is the state.