Housing still up in some areas
Bell, Inglewood and South Los Angeles are hot. Manhattan Beach, Tarzana and Beverly Hills’ 90210 are not.
Thanks to gains in some of Los Angeles County’s most-affordable neighborhoods, the county’s overall median price in November edged up 2.6% over the year-ago month, to $510,000, La Jolla-based research firm DataQuick Information Systems said Tuesday.
Median prices in Inglewood, Whittier, Bell, Pasadena and large swaths of South L.A. rose at least 17% in the three-month period ended in November, DataQuick said.
These smoldering neighborhoods, considered more affordable, were the last to heat up during the recent housing boom. Although they are expected to eventually cool off, for now they are helping to offset price declines in once-hot markets that have become less affordable.
Those now-slumping ZIP Codes include Beverly Hills’ 90210, Manhattan Beach’s 90266, Tarzana’s 91356 and Alhambra’s 91803 -- where the median price fell at least 10% from September to November, DataQuick reported.
“It’s clear that many of the more-expensive neighborhoods have seen their run, while there’s still some gas in the tank for less-expensive neighborhoods,” said John Karevoll, chief analyst for DataQuick.
Other California counties, most notably San Diego and Sacramento, began seeing overall median prices decline earlier this year.
Karevoll and other housing observers expect L.A. County’s median to flatten and possibly depreciate within the next couple of months. That’s because sales continue to decline versus year-ago levels. Slower sales have put downward pressure on prices in Southern California and the nation.
In November, Los Angeles County sales decreased 19% from the year-ago month, the smallest such decline in five months, DataQuick said. November is usually one of the slowest months for sales. Yet, with only 7,351 transactions logged last month, it was the worst November since 1997.
Still, the latest statistics indicated that the housing market in the nation’s most-populous county -- it accounts for a third of Southern California’s home sales -- continues to settle down from its recent peak but is not yet exhibiting signs of a crash.
“We’re just not seeing the turbulence in the numbers that we would if we were in the midst of a real downturn,” Karevoll said. “It’s not like the surge period, but L.A. is doing pretty well as far as prices go.”
Falling mortgage rates are helping to keep the housing market from deteriorating at a faster pace, analysts say. Long-term rates are at an 11-month low.
One community revving at high speed is Lincoln Heights, where the median price rose 18.3% to $491,000 in November, DataQuick said.
Located just north of downtown L.A., Lincoln Heights has seen a surge in home buying after Puerta del Sol, a new condominium complex within walking distance of the Gold Line, opened for business a year ago.
A big reason why: affordable pricing. Catering to middle-income government workers, teachers and public safety personnel, units at the project range from the high $200,000s to the high $400,000s. Its sales are outpacing those at most new-home projects in the county, according to research firm Ryness Co.
“We wondered how we would be able to afford a home in L.A.,” said Carlos Guerrero, who, with fiancee Sarita Garcia, moved into the complex last month. Both are school psychologists for the Los Angeles Unified School District. “We see it as an emerging area with a lot to offer and it’s still relatively affordable.”
The project’s developer, Agoura Hills-based AMCAL, is now turning its sights on another still-appreciating neighborhood at 94th and Broadway in South L.A.
There, the company, which gets special government tax breaks for building below-market-rate housing, plans to begin construction on a community of 50 detached homes next spring.
“It’s not as profitable and not as glamorous,” AMCAL President Percival Vaz said. “We pick neighborhoods that are pioneering.”
Still, more than 51% of L.A. County residents are renters. For them, the cost of housing continues to rise.
A separate report Tuesday found that to be able to afford a standard two-bedroom apartment without paying more than 30% of income in rent, a household needs to earn $4,230 monthly -- more than $50,000 a year.
That would translate into a wage of $24.40 an hour, according to the Southern California Assn. of Non-Profit Housing. In 2000, the group pegged its so-called “housing wage” at $17.29.
“Every year it is becoming more difficult for low-income working families to find decent homes they can afford,” said Paul Zimmerman, the association’s executive director.
In L.A. County, minimum wage workers earn $6.75 an hour. By the group’s calculations, such a worker would have to work 135 hours a week, 52 weeks a year, to afford an apartment with an average rent of $1,269.
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Losers and gainers
Los Angeles County ZIP Codes with the biggest depreciations and biggest gains in median home prices in the last three months:
Biggest depreciations
*--* Median price Median price Sept.-Nov. Sept.-Nov. % Area ZIP 2005 2006 change Tarzana 91356 $1,175,000 $982,500 -16.4 Beverly Hills 90210 2,250,000 1,897,500 -15.7 Santa Clarita 91390 757,500 650,000 -14.2 Manhattan Beach 90266 1,570,000 1,379,000 -12.2 Rancho Palos Verdes 90275 1,235,000 1,091,000 -11.7 Monterey Park 91755 602,500 532,500 -11.6 Torrance 90505 850,000 758,750 -10.7 Alhambra 91803 561,500 505,000 -10.1 Palos Verdes Peninsula 90274 1,590,000 1,455,000 -8.5 Los Angeles/ Rancho Park 90064 977,250 899,000 -8.0
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Biggest percentage gains
*--* Median price Median price Sept.-Nov. Sept.-Nov. % Area ZIP 2005 2006 change South Los Angeles 90061 $338,000 $435,000 +28.7 South Los Angeles 90037 375,000 469,000 +25.1 East Los Angeles 90063 350,000 422,273 +20.6 South Los Angeles 90011 356,000 427,250 +20.0 Inglewood 90305 475,000 570,000 +20.0 Whittier 90602 485,000 577,500 +19.1 Bell 90201 415,000 492,500 +18.7 Los Angeles/ Lincoln Heights 90031 415,000 491,000 +18.3 Pasadena 91103 535,000 630,000 +17.8 Los Angeles/ Watts 90002 335,000 392,500 +17.2
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*ZIP Codes with at least 25 homes resold.
Source: DataQuick Information Systems
Los Angeles Times
