Poll Analysis: Most Americans Approve Senate Trial Verdict

     An overwhelming majority of the American public think the Senate did the right thing in not removing President Clinton from office, and they haven't lost respect for the office of the presidency, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

     Clinton's Acquittal
     About two-thirds of Americans believe the U.S. Senate did the right thing in not convicting and removing President Clinton from office, while three out of 10 believe they did the wrong thing. Most demographic groups are satisfied with the outcome of the trial, except for self-described Republicans and conservatives.
     The U.S. Senate handling of the impeachment trial against President Clinton did not fare well with the American public. Fifty-six percent of the respondents surveyed disapproved of the way the U.S. Senate handled the impeachment trial, 37% approved. All demographic groups, including Republicans and conservatives, gave negative ratings to the Senate's handling of the trial. One reason for the dismal rating may be that 57% of the public wanted the final debate leading up to the vote on the two articles of impeachment in open sessions rather than in closed session (38%). Another possible explanation may lie in the public's belief that the Republicans in Congress pursued impeachment primarily because they wanted to hurt President Clinton politically (62%), while just 34% say the Republicans in Congress pursued impeachment primarily because they were concerned about the impact of President Clinton's actions on the legal and moral fabric of the country.
     It was widely anticipated that the Senate would not get the necessary two-thirds majority vote to convict and remove the president from office. If the president were to be acquitted, the drafting of a censure resolution was something that some senators wanted to pursue. Senator Dianne Feinstein of California drafted a censure resolution and it was put before the Senate after the president won acquittal. An objection to the resolution arose and the Senate failed to muster the majority vote to override it. Thus for all intents and purposes, the movement to bring up censure had been defeated, but there is talk of plans to revisit the matter at a later date. The public, however, is against censure -- a plurality (47%) of the respondents do not want censure for the president, while 38% do. More than half of independents (52%), 45% of Democrats, 44% of moderates, 55% of liberals and 53% of men do not want censure. On the other hand, 47% of self-described conservatives want censure for the president, while Republicans and women are divided over this issue.
     Seemingly relieved that the impeachment trial is over, a large majority of the public does not want independent counsel Kenneth Starr to seek an indictment of President Clinton on the perjury and obstruction of justice charges and would prefer the matter dropped. They say enough is enough and want to leave this chapter in history behind them. Almost three out of five respondents say they don't want Starr to seek an indictment of Clinton, 12% say Starr should seek an indictment of the president only when his term expires and 27% say Starr should seek an indictment while the president is in office, but ask the court to postpone a trial until after his term. Again, majorities of most demographic groups don't want to see Clinton indicted, with the exception of Republicans (65%) and conservatives (60%) who want Starr to seek an indictment.

     Effects of the Impeachment Trial
     Half of the American people believe that the trial to remove the president from office will have no lasting effect on the country. A third, however, feel it will have a lasting negative effect and 11% feel it will have a lasting positive effect. Forty-eight percent of those surveyed think the trial was bad for the country, 25% think it was good for the country and 22% say the trial did not have an effect on the country one way or the other.
     Now that the trial is over, a solid majority believes that the Republicans in Congress and President Clinton will have difficulty working together. Seventy-one percent say it will be difficult for the two to work together harmoniously, while 21% think it will be easy for them to work together.
     Although 68% of the public say they have not lost respect for the office of the presidency because of President Clinton's misconduct in the White House and the impeachment trial that followed, confidence in the institution of the presidency and Congress has deteriorated. Forty-three percent say they have a great deal or a lot of confidence in the presidency, while 48% say they have some or very little confidence, and 7% say they have no confidence in the presidency. Congress' ratings have slipped further than those of the office of the presidency. Twenty-two percent of respondents say they have a great deal or a lot of confidence in Congress, 71% say some or very little and 5% say none. To compare these ratings to an earlier poll, a June 1998 Gallup poll found that 53% of those surveyed said they had a great deal or a lot of confidence in the presidency and 28% said they had a great deal or a lot of confidence in Congress.
     Most people (72%) agree with the statement that some of the most capable and talented people who would consider running for president will not run because of the scrutiny their private lives would undergo in the media and elsewhere.

     Job Ratings and Impressions
     A plurality of the public (46%) has an unfavorable impression of the Republicans in Congress, 32% have a favorable impression and 22% are not sure. The GOP favorability rating has declined by six percentage points since the Times polled in January, while their unfavorability rating edged up five percentage points. Democrats fared no better. About two out of five Americans (41%) have a favorable opinion of the Democrats in Congress, while 42% have an unfavorable opinion of them. In the January Times poll, 49% had a favorable impression of the Democrats while 34% had an unfavorable impression.
     President Clinton's job approval rating is still strong -- 64% approving of his job performance, 31% disapproving. This rating is not much different than the one he received after the Senate voted not to dismiss the case and to call witnesses (67% approval, 30% disapproval). Interestingly, more men than women give him higher marks for his job performance (69% compared to 59%). Although Clinton's job rating is good, his popularity has suffered somewhat. Half of the respondents interviewed had a favorable impression of the president, down from 57% in the January poll. Forty-five percent of respondents have an unfavorable view, up from 40% in the last poll.
     Clinton, not the Republicans in Congress, is still thought of as the one who has the better ideas how to solve the problems this country currently faces (57% to 27%). The public still feels that he cares about people like them (55%) and can effectively do his job in his last two years in office (67%). Half of the respondents say he has the honesty and integrity to serve as president of the United States, 46% don't think he has these virtues, and 70% say the president doesn't share their moral values.

     Kenneth Starr
     The favorability ratings of independent counsel Kenneth Starr have been extremely negative in the Times and other media polls. He may find it difficult to rehabilitate his image. Fifty-four percent of Americans have an unfavorable impression of the special prosecutor, 29% favorable and 17% unsure. In a September '98 Times poll, 50% had an unfavorable opinion of Starr, compared to 33% who had a favorable opinion. Most demographic groups feel this way, with the exception of Republicans and conservatives who have a favorable impression of him (60%, 52% respectively). A majority (51%) believe Starr is pursuing his investigation of President Clinton to hurt him politically, while 40% think he honestly believes that the president committed perjury and obstruction of justice. And in spite of these negative opinions of Starr and the feelings that they don't want him to go after Clinton, 61% of the public say they want Congress to renew the law that allows the Justice Department to appoint special independent prosecutors.

     Presidential Election 2000
     When asked if the country would be better off if a Democrat or a Republican was elected in the 2000 presidential election, 38% of Americans thought a Democrat would be better for the country, while 28% thought a Republican would and 19% said it depends on the candidates running. Among registered voters, the spread got closer with 36% mentioning the Democrats, 31% saying the Republicans and 21% saying it depends on the candidates. And when asked if the country would be better off if the Democrats or Republicans controlled a majority in Congress after the next election in 2000, 41% of Americans say they would like a Democratic majority, while 36% say they would like a Republican majority. Among registered voters, 42% say the Democrats should control Congress and 37% thought the Republicans. About two in five independents (all respondents and registered voters) say the country would be better off with a Democratic controlled Congress.
     More than two-thirds of the public don't think the impeachment of the president and the effort to remove him should be an issue in the 2000 presidential election, only 3% think it should be the most important issue and 26% think it should be an issue, but not the most important issue. Registered voters' views are the same.
     Vice President Al Gore still remains an enigma to a third of the public even though he has been a U.S. Senator, a presidential candidate in 1988 and vice president for six years. Thirty-seven percent of the public have a favorable impression of Vice President Al Gore, 30% have an unfavorable opinion of him and 33% are undecided. It's about the same among registered voters. Almost three out of five (58%) of those surveyed say the vice president's support of President Clinton throughout the impeachment trial will have no effect on whether they will support Gore for president or not, 17% say it will make them more likely to support him and 21% say it will make them less likely. There is no difference among registered voters.
     When asked if their senator's vote on the impeachment trial would have an effect on their reelection vote, a majority of registered voters say it won't affect the way they will vote in 2000. More than half (52%) of those surveyed say if their senator voted to convict and remove the president, it will have no effect on how they vote, 24% say it will make them more likely to reelect their senator and 22% say it will make them less likely. Among registered self-described Democrats, 34% say it will make them less likely to reelect their senator, while 45% of self-described Republicans say it will make them more likely. Self-described independents are somewhat divided if their senator voted for conviction with 22% saying more likely to reelect their senator, 28% saying less likely and 49% saying it will have no effect. If their senator didn't vote for conviction of the president, 53% of registered voters say it will have no effect on their 2000 vote, while 21% say it would make them more likely and 23% say it will make them less likely. Thirty-five percent of Democrats say it will make them more likely to reelect their senator, while 45% of Republicans say it will make them less likely.
     At least half of the registered voters also say the vote cast by their House congressional representative on the articles of impeachment would not have an effect on how they will vote in 2000. Fifty percent of the electorate say it will have no effect on their vote because their member of Congress voted for the articles of impeachment, 25% say it will make them more likely to reelect their representative, 24% say it will make them less likely. If their representative didn't vote for the impeachment articles, 56% say it will have no effect on their vote, 18% say it will make them more likely to reelect their member of Congress and 24% say it will make them more unlikely.

How the Poll Was Conducted

     The Times Poll contacted 664 adults nationwide, including 589 registered voters, by telephone on Friday, February 12.
     Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, and region. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample and for registered voters is plus or minus four percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.