Rains Deluge Southern California

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George Groth of Green Valley Lake, south of Big Bear, shovels through over a foot of snow in front of his house off Green Valley Lake Blvd. (Gina Ferazzi / LAT)

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The first major snowfall of the season hit Big Bear, causing school closures and some power outages. (Gina Ferazzi / LAT)

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A towering evergreen tree fell onto a van and power line, closing a portion of Big Bear Boulevard and causing power outages to San Bernardino Mountain residents during the first major snowfall of the year. (Gina Ferazzi / LAT)

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Alex Guerrero shovels through more than a foot of snow at the Pine Nut Coffee shop in Big Bear. (Gina Ferazzi / LAT)

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Students board their school bus after waiting at a snow-covered corner in Frazier Park. (Carlos Chavez / LAT)

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This snow-covered road made a nice place for walking with the dogs in Cuddy Valley. (Carlos Chavez / LAT)

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Sarah Bonfield, 3, and mother, Sharon, collect the last of the hay for feeding their horses in Cuddy Valley. (Carlos Chavez / LAT)

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Horses and cows look for grass in the newly fallen snow in Cuddy Valley. (Carlos Chavez / LAT)

By Hector Becerra

Oct. 27, 2004 2:42 PM PT

Times Staff Writer

The Southland braced for continuing rain that threatened the evening commute and could bring flash floods.

Rains pelted the region throughout the day and are expected to continue in the early evening. The National Weather Service said there was a chance of thunderstorms and gusty winds this afternoon. There is a 70% chance of rain through the afternoon and about a 50% chance this evening.

Thursday was expected to be partly cloudy before clearing during the weekend.

There were reports of scattered power outages from felled trees and officials watched for flooding and mudslides in areas damaged by fires.

The latest downpour was significant, ranging from 4.16 inches at Cogswell Dam to about 2 inches downtown, according to the Department of Public Works. Los Angeles has already broken its 115-year record for rainfall in October.

In the higher elevations, the recent storms brought snow, allowing operators to open ski resorts sooner than usual.

A storm last week dumped 5 feet in five days at Mammoth Mountain in the eastern Sierras, said Dana Vander Houwen, a spokeswoman for the ski resort, which opened last Thursday. Another 2 feet fell in recent days, a total of 82 inches, shattering the October record of 60 inches, she said.

Mammoth has pretty long seasons, she said, but to open this early on natural snow is “pretty incredible.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted that Southern California could be in store for higher-than-average rainfall in the next few months, but experts agreed that any extra precipitation would be insufficient to reverse the effects of a six-year drought.

The big question, forecasters said, is whether the unusually large amount of early season rain will be followed in January and February by a more familiar weather pattern: El Niño. That phenomenon, which involves a warming of tropical waters in the Pacific Ocean, has been the cause of heavy rains in California in the past.

Computer models and other forecasting tools show a mild El Niño kicking up early in the new year, said Ed O’Lenic, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the National Weather Service.

But other forecasters were more skeptical.

“October could be a preview of coming attractions, but it definitely won’t be an El Niño winter,” said Bill Patzert, an oceanographer who studies weather for the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena. He described the wet October as “absolutely unusual, a 100-year event.”

Over the past six years, the average rainfall in Southern California has been less than 75% of normal, according to researchers. In the season that ended in June, only about 9 inches fell. The normal annual rainfall for Los Angeles is about 15 inches.

“In dry areas, any amount of rain is helpful, and it does tend to put a dent in the kind of long-term drought you’ve had,” said meteorologist O’Lenic, who is based in Maryland. “But it won’t erase it, because you’ve had such a long-standing deficit.”

Today’s storm raised new fears of flooding in areas burned by wildfires a year ago and over the summer.

In Santa Clarita, more than 400 residents of a mobile home park were stranded for the second time in two weeks when runoff from a burned area flooded the only access road. And in Silver Lake, three trees fell into electrical lines, blacking out an unknown number of homes.

Rescuers in El Monte pulled someone unharmed from the San Gabriel River. And in San Bernardino, the body of a man who apparently was swept away last week by a storm was found by crews cleaning debris in the Lytle Creek wash area.

In Los Angeles, officials reported taking a nude body from the Los Angeles River in the Silver Lake area. The body of a man, believed to be his 30s, had been in the river for no more than a day or two. The incident is under investigation.

The storm earlier this month was the first in the region in 180 days, and it did much to alleviate fears that Southern California was ripe for the type of catastrophic wildfires that destroyed more than 3,000 homes last year.

No one is sure why October has been so wet. There were no long-term forecasts predicting the storms, O’Lenic said.

Times staff writers Michael Muskal and Sandra Murillo contributed to this report.