Will Justify win and go for a Triple Crown? Here’s the answer to that and other Preakness Stakes questions

Trainer Bob Baffert once called the Preakness Stakes the easiest of the Triple Crown races to win. Of course, he said that in a year when he didn’t have the Kentucky Derby winner staring at a bit of horse racing immortality.

Baffert knows a little bit about the Preakness, having won it six times. He’s also four-for-four when he has taken the Kentucky Derby winner to Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.

This time, expectations are sky-high, scaring off most of the horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby almost two weeks ago.

“That’s my favorite of the races because it’s stress free,” Baffert said. “They just do a great job. They make sure all of our needs are taken care of. The only thing you have to watch out for is you don’t overdo it on the crab cakes.”

This race, the second leg of the Triple Crown, is the shortest of the three races at 1 3/16 miles. It’s also the narrowest track at 70 feet, limiting the field to 14, as opposed to the Kentucky Derby, which has 20. But that shouldn’t be a factor as the presence of Justify has slimmed the field down to just eight horses. The last time eight horses started in the Preakness? It was 2015 when American Pharoah won the Triple Crown for Baffert.

Too many parallels to ignore?

Here are five story lines that you can expect to hear about this week at the Preakness.

Will Justify win and go for a Triple Crown?

It’s difficult to see a scenario where Justify does not win the Preakness, even if he only brings his B-plus game. His front-running style, or ability to sit just off the lead like he did in the Kentucky Derby, keeps him out of trouble. Jockey Mike Smith did not empty the tank in the horse’s Derby win. Fewer horses also means fewer variables. Now, the shorter stretch and tighter turns can favor closers but only against a compromised front-runner.

“Justify had an easy race, a good trip, no trouble, so it didn’t take a lot out of him,” said Wayne Lukas, who has Bravazo and Sporting Chance in Saturday’s race. “It’s his race to lose. … Give him a clear shot at it and I definitely think he’s going to be very difficult to beat.”

Trainer Bob Baffert leads Justify at Churchill Downs on May 6, the morning after winning the Kentucky Derby.

(Garry Jones / Associated Press )

Which of the horses has the best chance to beat Justify?

There is little doubt that the biggest threat comes from Good Magic, who finished second in the Kentucky Derby. The $1-million purchase also won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year. But the question is can he improve off his Derby effort, where he was ridden hard down the stretch? Trainer Chad Brown originally didn’t commit to bringing the colt to Baltimore, making most people believe he would skip the race. But his stance on coming back in two weeks wore thin and on Sunday it was announced the horse would race in the Preakness.

Only Sporting Chance has won a Grade 1 race but that was last year in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga. Quip won the Tampa Bay Derby, a Grade 2. Bravazo and Lone Sailor have second place finishes in Grade 2s.

Do the two weeks between races make a difference?

This may be one of the most overhyped factors when it comes to the Preakness. The difficulty isn’t coming back racing in two weeks, it’s running three races in five weeks. In many ways, horses who had good form in the Kentucky Derby, such as Justify and Good Magic, will hold that form two weeks later.

“I think every horse that I’ve taken to Baltimore that won the Derby, they’ve run well … because they are in the zone,” Baffert said. “They’re just peaking out.”

Four of the horses, Diamond King, Quip, Sporting Chance and Tenfold, did not race in the Derby.

Will a wet track make a difference?

It’s supposed to be wet all week in Baltimore. Saturday’s forecast calls for an 80% chance of rain. Two of the last two Preakness Stakes have been run over a sloppy track, including the deluge in which American Pharoah won. So, this is nothing new. Who does that favor? Just like every other tangible and intangible, it favors Justify. Two of his four wins have come over wet tracks. He’s not the only one, though, Sporting Chance won the Hopefully on an off track. And Good Magic was second over a sloppy track, beaten by Justify.

Is this the last year the Preakness will be held at Pimlico?

No, Tim Ritvo, who runs all the Stronach Group tracks including Santa Anita, told the Baltimore Sun that it is coming back for one more year and after that, who knows? Stronach also owns Laurel Park, between Baltimore and Washington, D.C. Pimlico is a very old facility that shows its age. It would essentially need to be a teardown to fix it. It only hosts racing two weeks of racing a year. Still, the city of Baltimore is committed to keep the race within the city limits, but at what cost?

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