California backs a ‘fiscal cliff’ compromise — sort of, poll says

As America careens toward the year-end “fiscal cliff” with Democrats pressing for tax hikes and Republicans demanding budget cuts, California voters have one firm word for their elected officials:

Compromise.

By that they mean: Make the other side compromise.

In a survey that confirms the difficulty of coming up with popular ways to do unpopular things, a USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll found that 3 in 5 Californians want their elected officials to “compromise with the opposite party, even if that means giving up some long-held positions.”

But things foundered on the details.

When Democrats were asked whether cuts in Medicare and Social Security benefits should be offered to get Republican agreement on some tax hikes, or whether all reductions were off the table, they strongly opposed any benefit cuts.

When Republicans were asked whether some revenue hikes should be accepted to get Democrats to agree to benefit cuts, they just as firmly opposed any tax increases.

The independent voters in the middle sided with Democrats in saying that benefits should not be sacrificed for tax hikes. Only narrowly did they say that Republicans should agree to raise taxes as part of a budget deal that would also slice benefits.

In short, the state that is often cast as far out on the fringe of the nation’s political thought demonstrated that it has at least this in common with everywhere else: defining compromise as a one-way street.

“People are in favor of compromise as long as other people are doing the compromising,” said David Kanevsky of the Republican firm American Viewpoint, half of a bipartisan duo that conducted the poll for The Times and the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences.

The poll also confirmed the outcome of last week’s election, in which President Obama won a second romping victory in California. There was broad support for the president and his campaign proposal to raise taxes on incomes over $250,000 a year.

Given a choice of three options loudly debated in the campaign, 51% of Californians said the George W. Bush administration tax cuts set to expire at the end of the year should be left in place for those making less than that amount. Only 28% took the position espoused by Republican leaders that all of the tax cuts should remain in place. A smaller group still, 17%, said everyone’s taxes should be raised to help cut the nation’s deficit.

“This is a difficult problem to solve, but the president’s agenda came out of this in a strong position in California,” said Drew Lieberman of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, the Democratic poll partner of American Viewpoint.

When budget options for the fight now brewing in Washington were proposed separately, California was generally in line with voters elsewhere in the nation. Voters took a measured approach to taxes, weren’t keen on cutting the defense budget and objected strenuously to cuts in social programs, Medicare and Social Security. Essentially, they endorsed the stalemate that has blocked both parties from attacking the federal deficit.

Asked whether taxes should be raised wholesale, Californians objected, 54% to 43%. Anti-tax feelings were shared by unusual bedfellows: 79% of Republicans, 65% of Latinos, 60% of those making less than $50,000 a year.

Sentiment flipped when it came to raising taxes on those making more than $250,000 a year, an option supported by 67% of respondents; 31% opposed it. Most major demographic and ideological groups, except for Republicans, strongly backed such a move. Even those most directly affected — those making more than $100,000 — favored a tax hike by a 24-percentage-point margin.

When it came to budget cuts, Californians were split on whether to cut defense spending by $600 billion, as required in the budget deal agreed to by Obama and Republicans last year. Democrats backed the cuts by almost 2 to 1, while independent voters gave it narrow support and Republicans strongly objected.

No substitute cuts passed muster, however. Seventy percent of Californians rejected replacing the defense cuts with ones to spending on education and healthcare. All major groups but Republicans shared that view; Republicans were split on domestic cuts.

Objections ran even stronger to proposed reductions in Medicare and Social Security benefits, part of the turf on which the presidential campaign was fought. At least 4 in 5 white voters, Latinos and Democrats rejected such cuts, as did 75% of Republicans and independent voters.

“You have to feel bad for voters,” said poll director Dan Schnur of the Jesse M. Unruh School of Politics at USC. “After a yearlong presidential campaign, no one has bothered to tell them that raising taxes on people making over $250,000 does not balance the federal budget. No one on either side.

“Obama said the wealthy should pay their fair share. Romney said it would kill jobs. But neither one of them told voters that balancing the budget is a lot tougher than that.”

The survey confirmed the broad support enjoyed by the president in this cobalt state. All but 9% of Democrats sided with him, and he won the backing of almost 1 in 5 Republicans as well. Independent voters, who can tip the balance in any state election, went for Obama by better than 2 to 1.

Among the state’s majority of women voters, Obama enjoyed a 30-percentage-point margin, almost twice his edge among men. He won 2 to 1 among voters younger than 50, and more narrowly among older voters. As he did elsewhere, Obama walloped Mitt Romney among Latinos, winning 75% of their vote. The two split white voters, a source of strength for Romney nationally.

Obama benefited not only from the state’s Democratic tilt but also a boost in optimism among Californians. Just shy of a majority of California voters said the nation was on the right track in November, up from a low of 16% in August 2011. The right track number grew 10 percentage points between October and November.

And Californians looked with optimism to the future as well: 50% of voters said they expected the national economy to improve, and only 22% said it would worsen. As always, Latino voters propelled the positive thinking: 58% of them expected improvement in the future and only 16% thought the economy would worsen.

The state’s political polarization was also evident when it came to the presidential vote: One-third of voters said they did not even consider casting a ballot for Obama. Half said the same of Romney, including almost two-thirds of Latino voters.

Before the election, California was widely ignored — but for its donations — and that turned out to be a wise decision for both sides. Almost half of California voters said they had decided how they would vote before 2012. And voters sided assertively with Obama: More than 4 in 5 of his supporters said they were casting ballots for him rather than against Romney. Romney voters were more equivocating, split between voting for their candidate and casting a protest against Obama.

Even if the state was not a hotbed of electoral activity, Californians did absorb the messages the candidates spent tens of millions of dollars to spread in the contested states: Romney contending his leadership was needed to right the economy and Obama arguing his opponent was a flawed vehicle for frustration.

More than half of voters who sided with Romney said they did so because he could boost the economy, and 2 in 5 voters overall said Obama had wrongly increased the national debt.

But 2 in 5 voters overall also said Romney’s election would mean tax breaks for the rich, and almost 3 in 10 objected to his position on women’s health issues.

A key thematic indicator for a successful candidate is whether voters believe he is on their side and understands them. Among California voters, 23% said that of Obama; it ranked first on a list of his attributes. Only 3% of voters said the same of Romney, ranking it last among his attributes.

That divide is among many that blunt Republican chances of success in California, said Schnur, a former GOP strategist.

“It’s a partywide challenge,” he said.

The poll surveyed 1,520 California voters from Nov. 7 to 12. The overall sample has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points in either direction; margins were larger for subgroups.

cathleen.decker@latimes.com