U.N. Council Split on Iraqi Declaration

MOSCOW -- Three key members of the U.N. Security Council -- Russia, France and China -- say they are not yet convinced that an Iraqi declaration this month failed to fully disclose any weapons of mass destruction, in an indication that the United States might face an uphill battle building the case for war against Baghdad.

The wait-and-see positions taken by the countries, all veto-holding permanent members of the Security Council, contrast sharply with President Bush’s assertion last week that the 12,000-page Iraqi weapons declaration was “a long way” from meeting the Iraqi regime’s obligations.

On Thursday, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, John D. Negroponte, labeled Iraq’s omissions “another material breach” of U.N. resolutions but stopped short of declaring them a trigger for war.

Britain has also been sharply critical of Iraq’s performance but has so far not declared it a breach of the resolution.

While not endorsing the Iraqi report, the three other permanent members of the council are taking a restrained view and accentuating Iraq’s cooperative attitude toward U.N. weapons inspectors who have been on the ground for the last month.

Speaking at a news conference Monday in Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Igor S. Ivanov seemed to rule out any attack based on the Iraqi regime’s behavior so far.

“Any action outside the framework of Resolution 1441 ... can do nothing but complicate the regional security situation,” Ivanov said.

Calm Is Urged

Replying to a journalist’s question about “hysteria” regarding Iraq in the United States, Ivanov said: “Hysteria is not the best way to resolve a problem, and therefore we will continue to work calmly” within the U.N. process.

The first substantial assessment by the weapons inspectors is due Jan. 27, which is emerging as the key date for the United States regarding whether to launch a military attack on the regime of Saddam Hussein to force Iraqi compliance. During the next 34 days, U.S. officials are expected to try to make the case that international military intervention is necessary.

But indications are that the Bush administration faces an uphill battle to persuade the three Security Council members, who often have been at odds with the United States over Iraq.

In Paris, experts continue to go over Iraq’s declaration, while diplomats have stuck to a carefully calibrated Iraq policy.

They acknowledge that the Iraqi declaration suffers from serious omissions and shortcomings but say they want the U.S. and its allies to be focused on aggressive inspections, not preparations for an invasion.

Diplomats have denied reports that the French government has decided that military action is the answer.

“We have said that there are zones of shadow in the declaration,” a French diplomatic source said in an interview. “There is no question about that. But we have also said that the work of the inspectors should be the priority. We have not entered into a logic of military action. The defense minister has said there will be no French military participation in an operation without the United Nations.”

Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin said in a statement Saturday that war is a last resort.

“We must try everything before going to war,” he said.

French officials insist that U.N. arms inspectors should be given the time and the tools to do their work. Iraq’s response to the inspectors will be the measure of its cooperation, they say.

“For France, the key of the matter, the real test, is the demand for cooperation of Iraq,” a Foreign Ministry spokesman said Friday. “We want to evaluate at each stage the attitude of Baghdad -- its goodwill, its capacity to let the inspectors work in the field and proceed with the elimination of arms of mass destruction if the inspectors find them.”

The spokesman said that if Iraq is found to have not fully disclosed its weapons programs, the inspectors must be able to force Iraq to disarm.

France pressed the United States this fall to work through the Security Council and give inspections one more chance to force Iraq’s disarmament. France also insisted that the Security Council be consulted again before any military strike. But France has not ruled out participating in military action, and most analysts think the government of President Jacques Chirac is likely to join such an operation if it is carried out under the aegis of the United Nations.

Russia shows no sign of acceding to a U.S.-led attack since Iraq filed its report Dec. 7.

“There are questions that still need to be answered, but no one really expected that all answers could be given in one document,” said Deputy Foreign Minister Georgy Mamedov. “This is what the inspectors are for. If they have got a question but their attempts to get an answer to it are obstructed ... then it is a violation and it must be prevented.”

Mamedov said U.N. weapons inspectors have not complained of any Iraqi obstruction of their work so far.

Their statements “testify to the effectiveness of their work and an existing opportunity to solve the problem ... by peaceful means,” he said.

China Needs Time

Meanwhile, Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan has warned against jumping to conclusions on the Iraqi report, saying that China needs more time to study it and that no judgments should be made until the inspectors have been at work longer in Iraq.

A Russian political analyst, Alexander Pikayev of the Moscow Carnegie Center, said that one of the three reluctant countries might agree to a military operation because of U.S. pressure or its own interests and that the rest might then feel compelled to come around.

Pikayev said Iraq might have hurt its relations with Russia by canceling a $3.7-billion oil contract with Russia’s Lukoil recently.

“Quite a few people in Russia have been strongly irritated,” he said.

If the inspectors find weapons that Iraq did not report, Pikayev said, there would be consensus for action.

“A couple of hidden Scud missiles or considerable stockpiles of chemical or biological weapons would be enough to change Russia’s position,” he said.

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Daniszewski reported from Moscow and Rotella from Paris.